Member Info for ShareNicelyNow

Well, from 80p back to 100p, it's the easiest 25% profit ever!

Arrrrhhhh ... ... lightbulb moment. Like your thinking there, Sparky.

Key line in report for me was ".... with continued strong trading already evident in Q3 2022"

Q3 is all but over and they know the figures.

Done some doodle numbers, and am struggling to get near £500m next year. Can see comfortably over £300m this year, say £325, and then up to $450m next, then £600m 2024. Maybe, they mean £500m 'run rate' turnover by end of 2023 - that would be doable. However, all is subject to macro factors, and here, anything could happen, given we are well and truly trussed up!

Analyst presentation gives the £500m revenue target as 2023! With EBITDA of over 4% margin. Am I reading that slide correctly? 2024, I could go with, but next year? That will give eps at the 100p mark!

Company website has analyst presentation
https://www.yugroupplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Yu-Group-HY-results-presentation-2022-PLC-WEBSITE.pdf

Results in nice pdf
https://www.yugroupplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/2022-H1-Trading-Update.pdf

SP Angel note
https://www.yugroupplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/YUG__27092022FINAL.pdf

https://investors.tremorinternational.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tremor-international-hires-chance-johnson-increasing-focus

Replaces Jay Baum. TRMR appear to be wasting no time in getting Amobee kicked into shape. Beginning to feel more confident with the Amobee acquisition, and am sure they have definite plans and a 'vision' as to where they are going with this.

Pleased with another buyback. Cash flow is clearly still strong, and of course they will need cash to service the loans too. Agree with Biffa re Mithaq, but I doubt they are in the business of making a full bid. Can't see them selling at this price (I think they were still buying at 700p on the way up) - so another problem in our way (unless Rusty is right re exemption). They simply own too much for comfort, probably everybody's comfort.

From 2014, when that burger joint were sponsors
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H88tRceWIBI&t=108s

May not be any news now until Q3 results - mid November. That's two months on, so should be reasonable news re Amobee integration, cost savings and Amobee Q4 trading. World Cup will be also about to start, and so they will have bookings for WC advertising, and should reflect in guidance for Q4. Having now reconfirmed guidance for the full year, cash flow is still coming in at $35m plus per Q. Amobee will paid for in little over one year at this rate. This is ample cash / free cash flow for another buyback.

If the buyback was good value at £6.00, it's more so now - so why don't we have one? Free share count is now very low, so even a modest buyback should in my opinion give enough demand to positively affect the sp. I am still bewildered by the sp performance given the size of the buyback we have had, but I suppose this is more due to arbitrage from the US market, where selling pressure is relentless across the sector? I also don't like the share register, in particular Mithaq, their holding is too large and off putting, prevents new institutions buying in at scale, and is now almost maxed out at the 25% limit, possibly preventing any further significant buyback (their % holding would rise further).

Buybacks are controversial and not all shareholders support them. The benefit only really comes through on a re-rating of the shares, as the re-rating is applied to a lower share count / higher eps giving a higher sp than would be without the buyback. It looks like the duck up of the century if the sp falls, and it can get one questioning whether the buyback has contributed to the fall - questions one's grip on reality. Am I insane, or is the market?

https://www.tremorvideo.com/premier-advertising-solutions-for-fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022/

https://unruly.co/premier-advertising-solutions-for-fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022/

Thanks again Radium for contributing your time in digging out the relevant blub on that. I think now we all have a much better understanding of where the SBC comes from and how it's valued. It should put a lot of the discussion over it to bed, except for comments re whether such amounts were justified in the first place. Clearly, a case of cart before horse - will be interesting to see what they do re SBC when the current SBC expires in 2024! One of your links references the votes, and it's obvious one of the big three holders voted it down (my guess would be Schroders). However, the reality is that other companies in the sector have similar SBC awards ... ... ... to attract and retain talent!

Radium, thanks for digging up the rns.

So that's 2.25m shares per year, for 3 years. Fincap have therefore priced them at a straight $10 per share. Clearly just an estimate. Having checked, they are valued at the sp at the time of vesting for the accounts, hence, the figure can vary Q to Q, and each Q's results guidance always states they don't give guidance on profits because SBC can't be 'guided' because they are dependent on a future share price, which is unknown. Make no mistake, the Fincap figures are their estimate, which is based on guessing the sp over the next year - it's a pinch of salt number! If the sp averages $4 for the next 12 months, SBC is 4 times 2.25 - $9m, for the whole year.

R1 was bought when the sp was near to the £2 mark and SBC granted. Over the next 3 years, as the sp more than tripled, the SBC then appearing in the accounts has tripled re R1, as the accounts value it at the time of vesting. Hence, why SBC has been so high over the last 18 months - both the R1 and US listing SBC' s have hit the accounts together and valued at the current sp each Q. Going forwards, it's just the US listing SBC (last R1 lot was June 2022) and this will be calculated each Q depending on the sp at the time.

Re SBC - 2022 still has the tail-end of the payments due from R1, plus the US listing SBC (lasts for 3 years). Next year SBC is just the US listing payments, hence, the drop off. Not 100% sure on how they are valued for the accounts, but I think it goes on the sp at time of vesting, so FinCaps figures are guesses / or based on some sort of formula or agreed standard for broker notes. The number quoted for 2023 looks like the SBC agreed at the time of the US listing, valued at the sp at that time (hence, sixty odd million in total over 3 years).

Given where the current sp is, I think the total for 2022 will come out lower than what Fincap are estimating. If (and it is an if) I'm understanding this right, the Q3 SBC will down at $5m ish, and possibly even lower.

Non the less, as Dog says, the number of shares given is not affected, so the % dilution is what it always was.

On the positive front, Amobee has closed, with increased loans, and confirmed guidance. Hence, Q3 trading levels appear o.k. (only just over 2 weeks to end of Q). So, we can pencil in $35m plus EBITDA for Q3. That's reassuring, and perhaps helped the sp. Also of note is the restated lines about "future strategic investments and initiatives" (expect something more in the next 3 to 6 months). Amobee will also come with working capital in the price, including their cash balances (hence the word as adjusted, the working capital will have changed from when the deal was announced). Singtel's last accounts showed approx equal amounts for debtors and creditors for Amobee and in the region of S$33m cash! (About $20 to $25m).
http://media.aws.singtel.com/info-singtel/annualreport/2022/Singtel-Annual-Report-2022.pdf (see note 19)

T 123 - without meaning to be rude, you perhaps need to research a little more. Read this board back through say 12 to 18 months, and follow up any links will give you more than enough detail. Try also CA's own investor relations website.

But briefly - CA are activist investors who built up a very large holding through 2020. Ironically, another activist investor became a shareholder in CA, and forced CA to be effectively wound up. This caused concerns that CA's holding would be dumped cheaply on the market, as a forced seller, crashing the sp of EQLS. However, there has been an orderly exit, as EQLS has grown its business and CA has been able to 'place' its holding with a number of quality institutions - see EQLS shareholder page. CA realised profits (they were buying at below 30p) and the new holders have arguably got into a strongly growing business at a 'discount' to what it's worth.

CA as good as gone now. Some decent names now on the register, and I know of a few others who are there, but below the disclosable threshold. Arguably the market is now freer to price this more appropriately amongst themselves. However, given the macro outlook, I have re-considered my expectations. I am now looking for a multiple of 15 times EBITDA, previously 20 times. Longer term, and in a better economic environment, I still hold the opinion that this should be pegged at 20. If the market concurs, then this will struggle to break and hold over 100p until we have the full year trading update.

https://twitter.com/VetTechTrader/status/1565358997850537986

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hisense-tvs-volume-share-of-shipment-ranked-top-2-worldwide-maintaining-growth-for-3-consecutive-years-301614577.html

https://twitter.com/PsychoStock/status/1564887827518816256

Q3 numbers indicate on target for 19m revenue, as per previous post. This has an increasingly predictable business model, with stable gross margins, and overheads also forecastable with a high accuracy. Short term sp is not predictable, and anyway is irrelevant to long term holders. Clearly, very undervalued and those with funds and already in here, do right to add at this price. In the current market, this is a safe place to be, with upside, and little permanent downside risk.

Market expectations have gradually risen, from 9m EBITDA at the start, to currently 11m. I am sticking with my guess at 12 - 14m (with a chance of perhaps 15m).

As far as a three year view - I see EQLS being able to grow revenue consistently Q on Q at 1 to 2m per Q. At 1.5m per Q, this is 24m annualised (yes - think it through and do the sums). This is an annual growth in EBITDA of say 10m, based on 50% margin and some o/h growth. Say an annual rise in sp of 100p per year, assuming a rating of 20 times. Hence, EBITDA of 45m ish for 2025, Mcap of 800 - 900m and sp of 450 to 550p. A five bagger, come 2025 finals in the Spring of 2026.

Hi Gdog,
As things stand, I cannot see any reason why we should not be rated similar to the peers (excepting TTD), other than perceived lower growth. Reading the transcript from Magnite, their non CTV income also suffered in Q2, and problems have persisted into Q3. Tremor is up against comparatives which include Alphonso, which were meaningful revenues. I cannot see Magnite succeeding in its plan of nicking significant business from FreeWheel. Your comment re the peers being overvalued is telling. Are people beginning to more openly voice their hidden concerns?

As radium says, I think it will now be one or even two years before TRMR shows if it has a viable path forwards. I think it is best placed of the peers (in a weak sector) if it can develop its DSP into a major self-serve platform in the market and win the sort of business TTD has. With a better quality DSP, the SSP will attract high quality inventory (really showing off the benefits of a full stack). There is no other player in the market capable of doing this.

This is a lot of work, a good few years down the road, and no certainty of success / remote. Words such as 'hope' and 'luck' do not belong in the mindset of investing. I need more conviction.

The use of debt, plus the added $50m credit, hints at another quite sizable deal / acquisition / partnership requiring investment from TRMR in the next 6 months or so. MediaMath would be a reasonable guess, again to build out scale on the demand side. We need a genuine growth rating for the sp, and genuine growth. For now, it is hope, luck, living on a prayer (and we're not half-way there).

fdh - they will give a Q3 update, as up to date so far, tomorrow (previously announced as intended). The Vox Markets guys (Paul Hill) also likely to get an interview early in the morning.

"The Group announces that it will report its interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2022 on Wednesday, 7 September 2022. The Group will also provide an update on trading in Q3 2022."

Dog,
a little over 12 months ago the US sp was over $22 - three times today's. Why do you think we are undervalued by only 50%.? (Is that 50% undervalued, or do you see a 50% uplift?)

Strange, but as I re-listen to the last three calls, I am less encouraged. They have missed conservative guidance, and their expected growth rate is only 12-16% pa, in a digital ad market growing at over 26%. We won't get a growth rating on that! They seem to be in a niche part of the market, with small, specialised advertisers (businesses) who do not have the resources to produce their own video (hence, the use of Tr'ly). These small advertisers also need a managed serviced DSP, rather than self-service. The big money is in the mass market, and this will inevitably gravitate to the big boys. Gross CTV spend was $15bn in 2021, expected to be $21bn in 2022. Even TTD is not touching the walls of this (well, perhaps getting 10% of it). Where's it all going? Presumably, Google and Amazon. I have doubts over the whole ad tech sector (TTD and DV aside).

I suppose buying Amobee is to go some way to address this, as Amobee is apparently mainly self-serve (which begs the question, how is Amobee so loss making? They must be seriously inefficient). And if self-serve is where it's at, why is Amobee not growing? (ok, badly managed and with the wrong owners). If Q3 is poor, the loan finances will fall through, and so too will the acquisition. It's not in the bag yet. And at this sp, another buyback is a no brainer ... in this silence, I can hear dust falling on to the mantlepiece.

Last words to Ofer at the end of the Amobee call - wish us luck! A very odd, and perturbing, thing to say.

https://www.iab.com/news/digital-video-ad-spend-increased-49-in-2021-and-expected-to-reach-nearly-50-billion-in-2022-according-to-iabs-2021-video-ad-spend-and-2022-outlook-report/

The news will be the Q3 trading update. They have already given H1 revenue, and the gross profit of 15m (48%) margin. Overheads are expected to be up 2m ish on the year, so say up 1m for H1. Should give an EBITDA figure of roughly £4.5m (plus or minus 10%).

If Q3 revenue comes in at say 19m and Q4 say 21m, annual EBITDA will be in the 12 - 14m range. As this is above market expectations, the sp may get a boost. However, general economic macro issues are pushing ratings down, meaning the sp could tread water sideways for a good few more months yet. 12m EBITDA times 20 is Mcap of 240m, giving a sp in the region of 140p to 150p. Far too soon to get a sp up here. But as always, the market will price it where it wants!

One to watch is whether CA will sell down more of its holding in the week or so following the interims. Good interims will certainly confirm the investment potential to the institutions who may wish to add more.

Disappointed no rns detailing the end of the buyback - total spent, shares bought , average price. Also, confirmation (or not) of buyback continuing. Hope Q3 trading is ok - will need to be sufficient to fund buyback and satisfy the lenders for the Amobee loans!

SP up today, without buyback! and looks like some quite sizable trades. Valuation, as commented below, is insane. Excluding cash, we are on close to 1 times EBITDA. Peri, Pub, Mag appear to be roughly 10 times forward EBITDA guidance. Cash aside, would put our sp triple where it is.

As TRMR is buying back such large amounts, a point in time must come (in theory) where any s/h wanting out has sold out. If the company's buy back exceeds the daily supply of (net) sellers, the sp would start to rise. This would imply the market overall is starting to re-rate the company.

Continuing this point, it is bewildering (to me) where the supply of shares is coming from for TRMR buy. A lot of holders have thrown in the towel. The S/h page shows a list of holders, about 70% in total, Nasdaq has about 15m shares, ie another 10%, add directors, plus us mugs for holding on for so long, and there's only 10 - 15% of shares left - say 20m. Out of this 20m, the company has bought a massive proportion (and with ease without affecting the sp).

I think another buyback on this scale will struggle to purchase 100k shares a day - there won be the free float. Hence, sp should stabilise / trend upwards.