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A bit meaningless ... ... ... at least tell us what the talk was. Is it on or off?

Squeaky Bum Time!

fdh, we'll see. The growth of £1m per Q I suggested is probably in the bag, hence, your £120m is twice that - average of £2m growth per Q over the same period. It's not just normal businesses on Solutions, I think they have financial institutions in their sights as customers too, who need fx for international investments and trading. There is potential here for this to be way more than we currently think. But as you say, 3, maybe 5, years out.

Copied as of today - for future reference!

As at 20 April 2022, Directors & Major Shareholders (holding 3.0% or more) are set out below:

Name No. of Ordinary Shares held Percentage of issued share capital
Pembar Limited 24,986,833* 13.87%
Crystal Amber Fund Limited 18,020,000* 10.01%
Schroders Funds 10,549,500 5.86%
Threadneedle Asset Management 9,017,652 5.00%
Jo Hambro Capital Management 8,650,000 4.80%
Stephen Heath 8,648,341 4.80%
Hargreaves Lansdown 7,589,414 4.22%
Christian Levett 7,069,344* 3.93%
Totals 94,531,084 52.50%

HA ha! Hyperbole!!! Classic dyslexia!
https://wikidiff.com/hyperbola/hyperbole

fdh - generally agree. If Solutions can continue at about £1m growth per Q, then it's £5m - £6m a Q at year end, in line with their £2m a month goal. At the same rate it's £14m per Q by end of 2024, so that's getting on for £60m per year revenue. You're saying 10x H1? Is that 10x £6m for a half year, so £120m revenue a year? I cannot see evidence of that sort of growth in current trends. Hyperbola?

To repost something from earlier - "The business has the latest tec, is attracting some larger and quality customers and should do well, medium term and beyond. The better its tec gets, the more likely it is a takeover target to get the tec quickly without having to build it themselves (for the acquirer)."

I would be pretty P'off should there be an offer for the company within your three year investment horizon. I am taking a similar view, and think a £35m to £40m EBITDA is achievable in that time frame, so getting on for £800m Mcap and a sp in the £4 to £5 range. Unfortunately, my holding is not in my ISA and I am crying now at the thought of my CGT bill!!!

Vox Markets starred out in link.

Q1 was £14m revenue, so looks like £17m for Q2. I previously suggested Q2 would be £16m, so even ahead of my expectations. It was £8m for the first half of Q2, so £9m for the second, ie we can expect £18m revenue for Q3 and maybe a million more. Being cautious, I'll stick with £68m target for the year, but that is an 'at least' figure. EBITDA at least £12m (secretly hoping for .... but that's a secret!)

Solutions was just over £2.6m Q1, so about £3.5m Q2. Plenty more to come from this, will be a major growth contributor. They are targeting £2m a month by end of year - https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/q-a-with-equals-ceo-ian-strafford-taylor-f1ad82c/

A word about using revenue multiples - Equals uses third party affiliates, which shows as cost of sales, hence, gross profit is a more comparable figure to say revenue at AlphaFX. This makes the historical revenue multiple valuation in line with the sector, and not about half. The sector also trades at around 20 times EBITDA, again similar to EQLS, historic.

SP target therefore 150p ish, 9 months out. However, in this market I can see valuation multiples declining. Unless there is a major crash (and this is possible) the downside here is almost zero.

https://www.tremorvideo.com/measurement-and-insights/
Some more detail re the data side / TV Intelligence Platform, including a reference to having some access to LG acr data through iSpot! So LG are licensing out their data in some forms to the open market. They must need the income - walled garden has limits. (I think this is for measurement purposes and not targeting, so LG keeping that bit for themselves.)

https://www.adweek.com/convergent-tv/nbcuniversal-wraps-its-largest-upfront/#

Interesting. Increases in ad rates per thousand being reported, esp for CTV. (cpms) as shift from linear continues.

Good news like needle in haystack ... ...
https://www.sportsvideo.org/2022/06/30/fifa-to-launch-on-hisense-connected-tvs-ahead-of-fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022/

Waiting for news on Amobee. Looks like an opportunity to rapidly gain traction into international expansion and bring in a ton of extra demand on the DSP side. Hopefully this comes good, and does some good for the sp. I guess the plan would be to get this up and running in time for the WC in November.

Quite Radium. As said, huge dilution, assuming the balance is shares ... ... TRMR may borrow the other half of the purchase cost - that'll be my preference. But there has been large volume of late on aim, and the sp has dropped heavily ... perhaps on leaks of this deal???

Hopefully, it'll conclude in time for the start of the second half of the year.

https://www.marketing-interactive.com/tremor-singtel-digital-marketing-amobee

Gives indications of Amobee's quarterly revenues. Seems to indicate a decline in the last 6 months or so. Figures given appear to be gross ad spend.

Summary of last days news - Netflix, Cannes, Tremor
https://www.adexchanger.com/ad-exchange-news/ad-tech-covets-rose-with-netflix-tremor-shakes-things-up/

American sarcasm pretty much the same as ours.

Here's Magnites for balance - https://videoweek.com/2022/06/21/cannes-lions-2022-heres-what-it-looks-like/#

27:22 in - but where are the customers' yachts? - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekXip0g7U4c
Still funny and true today, a very good book and still in print.

That's the way I am seeing it. It sounds very like R1. Note that Anobee has a year end of 31 March. The figures given are for March 2021. Sales and profits do not appear to have bounced back a with other ad tec companies. No figures given for March 2022, which could be trending down.

Also, would TRMR be interested in the whole lot, or just bits related to CTV and video? It may be forced to buy it all (like R1) and then be left with the mess of closing down the cRap. Risk of overpaying. The profits in the articles sound too good to be true - so unlikely to reflect their current trading. Hopefully, lessons have been learned re R1. In our favour the seller really needs shot of it - it doesn't fit their portfolio (same I think with Teads in Europe).

Not the bargain that this appeared at first sight, hence, little market reaction. We will have to wait the final outcome and proper details. Also, possibly some dilution if part shares deal, which is not good at out current price. We should not pay a multiple higher than ours!!!!

Re previous post on Netflix, TRMR are also at the Cannes conferences -
https://events.tremorinternational.com/tremorsavethedate
https://twitter.com/TremorVideo/status/1539314692811653121/photo/1

More ... ... ...
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3850096-netflixs-ad-partner-hunt-puts-focus-on-google-magnite-report

What a coincidence of timing!
https://investor.magnite.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lg-ads-solutions-enables-data-driven-planning-activation

Just shows that OEMs trying to go it alone with a walled garden do not have the economies of scale to be viable. Alphonso management were selfish, greedy and short sighted in kicking out TRMR. (May even be relevant to the court case!) Hopefully, Vidaa OS grows into something big on the global market for Smart TVs. Also shows how TRMR have called the market trends correct in SPO, full stack, and use of all available data for programmatic ads.

The big fight now is for Netflix and or Disney +.

Background here
https://digiday.com/marketing/singtel-has-appointed-investment-bank-moelis-to-explore-a-potential-sale-of-amobee/

KS always comes over well in interviews, confident and coherent.
Thanks for posting the link, Radium.

FED rates up 75 bps. Very possible another 75bps next time (July). Expectations no longer for a soft landing, but a bumpy one. The trend is clear both for rates and also for changes in expectations. FED caught between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea. Concerns resurfacing in Europe of a credit crisis in the most over indebted countries which will struggle to issue bonds at higher interest rates.

Rates expected to hit 4% by mid next year. Market is beginning to demand positive real rates, ie sanity. However, 10 and 30 year yield rates are not yet reflecting this reality. A major crash in long term bonds is inevitable and necessary, esp with QT starting. Sorry for another negative post, but equities and the housing market (and zombie digital currencies) will also fall. Is guidance for ad tec companies still meeting guidance credible / believable?

Being slightly more positive, there has been well above average volume in TRMR on AIM for the last week. I have tried dummy sales for large chunks of stock and got immediate quotes within the spread to take them off my hand, in other words there are a stack of buy orders on the book at these prices. Normally, I would get a quote 10 to 15 pence below the spread or even it would go 'NT'. because of a lack of buy orders on the book. OK a lot are selling out (capitulation), but equally someone is aggressively soaking these sales up. At $700m Mcap, we are at $300m ex year end cash, ie 2 times EBITDA. Basically, you could buy TRMR the business for next to nothing. We are either bankrupt or a gift on a plate ...... and still trending down. The bottom is close ..... famous last words!