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https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/YU./holdings-in-company-q2xzyuik36jo2tz.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/YU./holdings-in-company-r7nxm2qvr4bkgon.html

Irrelevant, I think really - not same market. He does own 'E' via Bayford Group, though.

https://www.insidermedia.com/news/all/the-bayford-group-acquires-160m-energy-supplier

https://bayford.co.uk/

Thanks Sparky. Enjoyed reading your potted history of being in Yu.

"The 2018 debacle has actually ensured the processes and risk management are top notch" - agree absolutely. And they have the latest tec in their platform.

Not sure this is a routine recession. The gov took advantage of very low interest rates, and borrowed very short term, to get even lower rates, rather than issuing 10 or 30 year bonds. Loads of gov debt is up for re-financing, and this will be at much higher interest rates - the gov can't afford this without big tax rises and/or spending cuts. A massive mess and getting close to a real sovereign debt crisis. But, I'm hopeful we'll get sense from the new PM ... ... RS.

Once Yu clears £500m, the £1bn will come quickly (2 - 3 years). At that rate, I am modelling 400p eps.

Hi Sparky - seems a fairish assessment. I will admit that some of the accumulation has been me (since the interims), to add to what I already held.

What possessed you to buy when you did? At that time the company looked finished for sure, in trouble with Ofgem and FCA, and looked totally incompetent over how the energy market works to mess up the usage reconciliations so badly. The reputation was trashed and IIs all went for the door. I sold out at the £1 mark on the way down, and regretted not selling at £12 - 13 at the top (it was on about 60 times forward earnings, so I was very dumb back then). Have waited until the company is on a sound footing to re-enter, but have 10 times plus the shares I did first time around.

For the big boys to move in, somebody will have to move out! At £10, BK may be pressured by IIs to release some of his shares, also probably Miton & Jamieson. Some PIs with large holdings will also de-risk and sell a proportion, so all in all, liquidity will increase to create some resemblance of a functional market. And a functional market means an appropriate sp! I can see this north of your £10 following full year results.

MineH - No, in short, and never heard of this behaviour from anyone else. I am quite shocked actually, find it deeply perturbing, and frankly find it ethically troubling. Who is your broker / nominee account with?

One would think that if they were wanting to buy your holding, they would have offered a premium!

I don't have that size of holding (You, Sparky and maybe others do), but I'm in the next league down (50k - 100k bracket). Looking at the shareholding list on their website gives a clear indication of how little free float there is. Add in a good number of PIs with holdings say 20k plus, and there is very, very little left. It's obvious that the daily trades are primarily PIs who are mostly traders, trading sub 10k shares for 10% - 30% profit. If anyone is accumulating, it's best to watch the trades and jump in and buy after a few sells have gone through - the mms will have shares, and you will get them within the quoted spread (I have done this on a few days since the interims).

Institutions / funds have rules to follow - do their research, discuss it between the analysts & lead fund manager, they'll have minimum Mcaps they can't buy below, may need to wait till actual results to properly confirm profits and scrutinise the accounts for integrity etc, etc. I think we are in the last period of time (up to results for 2022) for us PIs to get in here / build a stake before the sp properly reacts. A good beat on earnings (50p plus) and a very positive trading statement for 2023, will be the line in the sand with no turning back. £500m (plus) revenue is comfortably over 100p eps, and on a 20 times PER - says it all! (They say 4% plus in margin - £20m plus).

... ... ... ... ... and the next target then becomes? Yep, I reckon all our minds are on the same figure!

Useful reminder of LT incentive plan - thanks. I would expect the 500p sp trigger to be met, and comfortably. They said in the interims that Q3 was 'strong', which suggests ahead of expectations.

Re institutions, given low share count, which is tightly held and with low liquidity, institutions will have difficulty building a stake worth having. They would want at least 1% holding, I assume, so about 165,000 shares. As the sp and hence market cap rises, the liquidity will increase, and a bigger Mcap will bring us on to the radar. It'll be the year end results which spark institutions interest. I also think that the company's reputation with institutions is still tarnished from 2018.

Trading updates are in line with what is required - full year, half year, plus at the AGM and with the interim and full results. So, nothing now scheduled until the usual end of January statement. However, they are required to update the market if results are to be materially different to expectations - a profit warning on the downside, or an upgrade on the upside. It's the significant upside which leads me to think a positive trading update will come, say late November onwards, but certainly before the year end.

Profit takers are more than welcome. They create a more functional market, with buyers and sellers more evenly matched. It gives the mms stock, hence, stops them stressing in having to sell shares they don't actually have in a strongly rising price trend, and vice versa, prevents them ending up carrying stock they can't sell when the price falls heavily. The result is a much narrower spread (5p range, rather than 20p range). It is also most welcome for holders / new investors to accumulate stock, by picking up the shares the profit takers have sold, both readily and at a favourable price, without forcing the price higher. I can see three nice buys here - 1,350, 4,000, 3,000, at 263 / 264p - demonstrating the point.

The company's profits are as they are. Investors know patience, and if confident, can wait for results until the sp reacts. Market forecasts of 30p clean eps are likely to be beaten. Again, the low share count acts positively, as increases in earnings means a big jump in eps.

RNS may land any day - either an acquisition of a book of customers, or an unscheduled trading update, informing the market that results will be significantly ahead of expectations, say by mid point in Q4, mid to late November.

Example only, for modelling demonstration -

Revenue of 550, at gp margin of 15% gives 83m

Overheads of 17m and bad debts at 5.5% of gross revenue of 30m

EBITDA (negligible D & A, and no I) of 36m. Less 23% tax = 28m, which on 16m shares is eps of 175p per share.

Play with the numbers and see the differences. The question then is, what about 2024? The numbers get 'silly' - but that's the low share count! Maths don't lie.

Let's see what happens next week. Maybe 250p is a short term resistance, maybe falls back. Some traders will take a 20% profit from the 200p mark, however, any strong buy demand will more than trump the traders. It's now very difficult to buy, unless there has been a few sell orders just gone through. Buyers will find it difficult at times to get a quote, without going blind on a negotiated trade basis. A short term target of 400p is not unreasonable - the beans are spilt.

Hi Sparky - too many variables. Eg a 1% rise in gp margin on 500m is 5m. On 16m share count, is 31p increase per share. On a 20PER, = £6 per share in share price. Given the low share count, the eps is very sensitive to the upside. They have said, as has TEP, that the price war in energy is over and folk will have to face reality and pay a fair and reasonable price. TEP has a gp margin at about 20%. Before the 2018 accounting mess, Yu has a gp margin around the 16% mark. The trend in gp margin alone is clearly on track to something fair and reasonable, before the price rises.

Bad debt on business energy is the main negative, and needs good controls in place to minimise it. (Yu have learnt this the hard way.)

If you can program a spreadsheet with basic formulas, then play around with some numbers. Revenue line, gp % (try 12% to 15%), overheads (try 14m this year, add on 2m a year forwards), bad debt % of revenue (5% - 7% range?), that's EBITDA, then tax (I use 23%) - profit divided by 16m shares. It's quite easy to end talking yourself into some big numbers, 2 years out.

Hi Sparky - still churning over the 500m. My doodle figures are all based on the interims, which are only up to June, and cover customers on contracts signed up to 2 years earlier (who are on lower gp margins and much lower prices). I have simply been extrapolating those forwards. If I add in today's pricing (double) and increase the gp margin, then 500m is easily doable next year, in fact I'd say 600+. This is organic growth. As you say, it is a bold and confident statement - they have clearly modelled out their own expectations to get the numbers and I can't see them building in an acquisition, until one has been fully agreed - it's too risky a call in case negotiations fall through. I've decided they know what they're saying, and to simply take their word on it.

I

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-ad-supported-tier-launch-171131672.html

Netflix ad inventory apparently sold out! Clearly pre sold, ie not programmatic / full data driven / limited targeting. But bodes well for CTV growth trends for TRMR - I do expect CTV growth to continue very strongly for TRMR despite downturn / recession. But this will be balanced by revenue falls in other online advertising (continuing the trend so far this year). Strong growth in CTV, I would hope, is a good catalyst for us to re-rate - following Q3 earnings.

I've just noticed the "+" after the 500m - read into that as you will!

Last week's IC showed Yu has having upgraded eps for this year to 31.8p (not sure of their source, but presumed to be the official broker). If the market believes this, the sp should start to price this in, now we are past the interims. The unknown is, what PER is likely? 10 to 15 times would be ok for now. sp could easily get to 350 to 400 short term, pending next news / trading update.

Full year revenue tends to be 2.5 to 2.8 times the interim revenue. £300m will be exceeded this year, on that basis, and eps likely to be 35 - 40p. (Broker being cautious)

Mr Sparky - I reckon you will be pleased with dividends, given your holding - 20p not unreasonable for the year. Given that the dividend will be paid well into next year, after the results, they will have a big chunk of next year's profit / cash in too by payment day. 20p is about 3.3m in total. If 500m hit for 2023, dividend should be then north of 50p (your annual dividend will in time exceed your purchase cost - a very rare feat).

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/YU:LON

Plots graph in real time - latest buys at 249. As soon as they get some shares to sell, someone is snapping them up, big time.

ps To correct my earlier posts - I was lying. Just trying to ramp the sp!

Sorry folks, you'll be getting sick me on here, but worth sharing this -

Monthly bookings figures seem to be rising consistently by £5m a month, per year. Currently at about £15m. Next year, say £20m. This is an annualised at £240m. Assume an average of 2 year contracts, hence, of the £240m, half is renewals and half is new business. (In reality, not everybody renews, so more is new business, though this balances what is lost.) Therefore, revenue increases by £120m. Say 12% gross margin, 4% bad debts, and allow 1% for increases in other overheads. So, a 7% margin on the increased revenue - as overheads are covered, all new revenue will always be at a bigger margin than the overall average margin (per target is 4% plus). So, an increase in profits of £8.4m. Equivalent to 40p - 50p in eps (depending on tax). Each year, this should increase.

Basically, if the company performs to plan, eps should rise 50p (and then some) each year going forwards. Company will need to retain relatively little to fund growth, so dividends will be 70 - 80% of eps. In short, this is really gonna blow! As they said themselves -

" As we continue to enjoy the fruits of our hard work, I look forward to delivering significant shareholder value in the near future."

Quite!

Healthy number of trades, and now over 220 for the latest buys. Market makers will be low on stock - it's not a stock that they hold on to in any great amounts, to protect their own downside. They'll have to earn their keep now, in doing their duty to facilitate functional trading. They may be forced to sell short (ie sell what they don't have) to satisfy the buy orders. Could result in them closing the short at a loss (to them), in a rising trend. PIs often criticise market makers, but most are clueless as to what they actually do, and the risks that they are obliged to take on.

Yep, spotted that. But, as said, who knows? Depends on Ofgem etc - they may want some distribution of business customers, and Yu have proved themselves on the smaller SoLRs. These things take a long time to negotiate, if so, Yu will have been in discussions for quite some weeks. Clutching at straws here, but given their confidence in calling £500m next year, suggests they are in discussions over something, even if not Bulb. All the small suppliers, under £100m, will be sub scale to turn a profit - plenty of choice for Yu to cherry pick what's best for them.

Chart starting to look promising - I tend to use exponential moving averages - 20, 50, 200 day. Shows confident support and bounce off 20 day (at about 200p) and suggests a strong and prolonged uptrend. With tight free float and limited liquidity, this could get 'interesting'. Only threat is that the gov support is only for 6 months initially, with some doubt over what happens come April. This will act as a limit on how far the sp will rise, until that doubt is removed.

Mind you, it didn't stop me. I added significantly last week at between 196 and 213p. across 5 trades of 3,000 / 4,000 shares.

Peri doing superb, seems a lot to do with SORT, which is getting better roi for advertisers. This trend should continue.

Revenue consistently up 30% in all 3 quarters so far, and EBITDA about double! Shows power of operational gearing as revenue growth drops straight to bottom line. Clearly on target for north of $140m EBITDA for full year. They'll be overtaking TRMR on all metrics, and like TRMR, as full stack, their margins will go crazy high. Peri definitely has a very bright future (and they are barely in CTV, yet). Deserve a major re-rating in the sp!

We need these SORT of results, desperately! But, we'll be lucky to end flat year on year. Jealous?

Sparky, I would think the £100m mark is what they are aiming for, for now. Something like that will be only just profitable, at best, and therefore wanting to exit the market. If Yu can get, say, a 12% gross margin, and say 5% bad debt provision, this leaves £7m to fall to Yu's bottom line (though perhaps some o/h increase?). To YU, this would be worth £70m market cap, at 10 times EBITDA. A realistic selling price for the seller is say £10 - £20m (tops). I can't see them issuing equity outright at the current sp - it's just too undervalued, therefore not value for money. They could do up to £20m by cash plus serviceable debt. I can also see some chance of a merger type deal, where the seller take a small equity stake, 10% ish, plus cash (possibly senior managers, who then join Yu's team).

Likely to be at least in provisional discussions with one or more companies - but will be NDAs in place. For us, it's a waiting game until the rns drops one morning, when we least expect it!

But as we can all see, Yu now has scale, so top lin growth / acquistion will drop to the bottom line. A £100m addition to revenue will be transformative, at Yu's current profit levels.

Yea, I am beginning to fall on your side with that one now, Sparky. They have a stronger balance sheet now, cash, and a growing reputation of competence, in a sector where others are failing on these characteristics. We should take the company on its word re bigger, better quality acquisitions. They also seem to have the systems, and 'dry runs' with smaller books, to be able to logistically cope with something bigger. But they they will wait to get something worth having, and at a value enhancing price.

Brief mention here by Vox Markets
https://youtu.be/SzxXhb3aVQw?t=1622

Also covered on Vox own site in a couple of recent features - difficult to link to Vox Markets own site, as lse stars out the url. Their 22.03.22 podcast with BK is worth a re-listen, esp in regard to acquisitions, being ready to take on bigger and higher quality books. Search for the Yu page on Vox, then click on media, and you'll get to it.