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Sounds like a first step of many to bring in decent institutions. Obvious things on those meeting agendas are the real expectations in profit growth (I would expect a 6% plus EBITDA margin on £500m), increased dividend pay-out proportion and sounding out the institutional interest in getting on board with Yu - this will guide BK towards placing some of his shares with said institutions, at what price and in what time scale. It's the only way, as most shares are very tightly held, with the short term sp movements at the mercy of relatively short term traders.

The dates suggest results out a week earlier than last year.

Short term target remains 900p, following results announcement (based on adj eps of 45p (my guess) and 20 times multiple). Arguably, 20 times is too low if the forward growth for 2023 is revealed with greater certainty.

Sparks - yep, somebody stake building in the lull between newsflow, taking advantage of the traders who trade out between the newsflow. Tentative signs at last that another institution is buying (but a long, long way to go before they reach 3%). SP has fallen to almost bang on 20 dma (exponential), which ironically, is a support point for traders to buy back in at (major lol).

sp likely to just range trade now, until definite news from the horse's mouth (BK).

Going with your figures (which are pretty similar to mine), let's say brokers upgrade 2023 revenue to £400m. On that, 2023 eps is over 100p. That's £20 plus on a forward rating of 20 times. We won't get that, yet, but as the year progresses we should do. Difficult and not wise to pre-judge the market, but once the finals are out, a sp of twice where we are now is not inconceivable. Exciting and fascinating March to come!

Exactly Gacky. Broker's figures are absurdly laughable.

In their defence, they understate. They are at risk from liability claims from clients if they get it wrong the other way round - promising profits that fall short, and a crash in the sp! They don't want a load of angry customers who have lost money on bad recommendations.

Gacky, ipc, Sparks - yep, you can add my vote to those figures as well. Seems like the number crunchers on here all have access to the same 'spreadsheet'.

I will add in support a different angle. They said, I think from memory, that end of Aug 22 post ROC, there was £5m cash. Four months on to end of Dec there is nearly £20m, would be a bit more but for investment in Yu Smart, so that's £4m a month coming in. This includes their own profit (EBITDA) plus the accruing ROC monies. Roughly £2m each. Very roughly therefore ROC due of £24m and run rate of EBITDA at annualised rate of £24m going into 2023 (both figures trending higher going forwards). Just another way of looking at things gives confidence to views already expressed.

Last point is Yu Smart. In the interims they said it was a cost of £2.5m-£3m a quarter. Given the meter target numbers, this is about £300 per meter. They seemed to indicate a rental income of about £100 per year, per meter, with a possible life up to 15 years - hence, the 'annuity' they refer to. This will be a saving of £100 per year on their own meters and an income of £100 per year on meters they install for other suppliers. They will also install for other suppliers, but not own the meter (presumably the other supplier will fund the meter cost). The presentation slide shows this as meters owned being less than meters installed.

On 30,000 of their own meters there is an extra £3m a year in EBITDA to come in, once meters are installed! Approximately another 20p in eps, before tax! plus rental income from other suppliers' meters. The question is how this £10 - £12m annual cost is financed. If from cash flow, then dividends and cash on hand figures will be much lower, in the short term, but still pretty decent. However, you can see that meters will be self-financing within three years. I think this is still being discussed within the company - they may use debt, basically a big overdraft, over the three year period to finance the meter costs. This will free up all the EBITDA for dividends / acquisitions. This would be the preferred option for dividend seeking institutions, to give higher dividends and a better income yield. Depends on how risk averse the board is to taking on debt. But, as they said, more will be revealed in March with the results, about the capital allocation policy. And a bigger dividend yield will support a higher share price.

A lot of important news to look forward to!

All talk - exactly. Artificial intelligence has got very clever, and very deceptive. As for the list of institutions, except for Miton and Jamieson, they are all banks, stockbrokers and execution only nominee platforms - ie all PIs. Slightly worrying, there are only two institutions in here. No wonder there is board discussion over the shareholder base, and how to get institutions on the register. This should change after the finals are out, with a beat on 2022, much clearer and uplifted guidance for 2023 and a decent dividend policy. A market cap of upwards of £150m and still a massive valuation gap to close.

Noix - tongue in cheek post?
I'd rather have 10 times the sp, than 10 times the number of shares worth ten times less!
After a share split, makes no difference - ii's will still have difficulty buying 1-3% of the company as a whole.

Sparks, 1000p now is all but in the bag. If 2022 finals eps comes in at 45p (plus) £10 will come after the results are out. By the interims, likely to be obvious that 2023 eps will be comfortably over 100p, hence, sticking with a PER of 20, £20 is on the cards for this year.

Re institutions - they won't over pay and over bid the sp up. Also, if they are dividend looking institutions, they will want a decent yield as with other utilities - they will need more than a 'modest' dividend. It sounded to me that the board is split on dividend policy (Vox interview comments "it was discussed heavily") and there was a comment in the TU that a further announcement will be made re the capital allocation policy - ie whether to pay out much more in dividends and use debt to finance expansion, including funding the cost of the Yu Smart meters etc or to remain debt free. BK sounded like he favoured a bigger dividend to get new dividend seeking institutions on board (mind you, he has a massive holding) and perhaps the board holding back.

There just isn't the number of shares available for iis to buy in, in weight. BK will have to place some of his shares with iis to get a sensible share register base. See latest placing at Telecom Plus
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/telecom_plus/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=2653&newsid=1650439
and compare the number of shares sold, the price, and CW's remaining holding. Dividend seeking iis will want yield, a high pay out ratio (60%, 70%, 80%) which is normal for utilities and will want security / stability, which means a full market listing. I can see all this on the cards over the next two years and there is no doubt, all this is being provisionally discussed. With a sp over £20, a market cap approaching £400m, this becomes easier to do, and therefore, more likely.

Given the stronger organic growth and a concentration on bigger and better quality customers, with heavier usage than the average SME, acquisitions will be less likely - I don't think they want a large number of low quality meters, with a higher cost to serve and a greater bad debt risk. I think they are re-positioning the business and targeting good customers only. Still though, sounds like they have something in mind, acquisition wise!

I am intrigued what a 'modest' dividend is. By March the cash pile is bigger. The dividend won't be paid until late May / early June, when the cash is even higher! (note, a chunk of cash will be ring-fenced to pay the ROC) To get institutions on board, the 2023 dividends, both interim and final, will have to be 'fuller' dividends, not 'modest'. The board (directors) will have to yield to that pressure, as will BK in selling a million or two.

Hi Sparks - yep, looking for a significant beat on brokers' numbers for 2022, at eps level (higher gp% and lower bad debt %) will boost sp significantly (unless sp creeps on up, all the way to the finals).

Previously, they have said very little and given no meaningful numbers re current trading in the final results or at the AGM TU either. The July TU is much more informative. I am hoping for / expecting more to be said this year, as current trading should be well above brokers' forecasts for 2023 - they will be 'obliged' to say more if it is clearly evident that 2023 figures are trending significantly over market expectations (ie the brokers).

And similarly, impromptu trading updates could pop any time for the same reasons, throughout the year. A bit like the reverse of a profits warning = WARNING - bigger profits ahead!

Well, I have crunched the numbers somewhat more and 'considered things'. Numbers wise, I am going for quarter revenues of £20m, 21, 23, £24m - total £88m. Contribution margin same as 2022, ie 47.5% gp margin and 2.5% marketing, so 45% giving £39.6M. Overheads of 22.6m and EBITDA of £17m. Canaccord are saying £80m revenue and EBITDA of £15.5m (guided by the company as conservative).

A jump in profits from £12m EBITDA in 2022 to £17m in 2023 is an increase of 42%. Currently we are on about 12.5 times 2022 EBITDA. There is something wrong here re the valuation or the quality of the company, its growth prospects, its business model and or products / services it offers (hence the low valuation). The market price is signalling to take a long hard look at what this company actually does and where it is going to ... ... ... ... and where to value it ... ...

for a later post! (I concur with fdh's comments)

For disclosure, I have fully sold out, half went in December, and half again following the Jan update. Will continue to watch and follow developments.

Noix - from the TU - annualised monthly bookings as stated for the last quarter of 2022. Hence. three months times £48.6m. This is an annualised figure, which excludes revenue beyond 12 months if a two year contract, but likewise will double count revenue on a 6 month contract. Therefore, the discrepancy I was highlighting. Forward booked revenue is arguably more than than the £247m stated.

Comparing the last two Vox interviews. In November, BK stated the EBITDA margins were 1.1% for 2021, and 2.1% for H1 2022, with a target for 2.9% for H2, aiming for 2.5% for the year as a whole. Latest interview he says 2.1% was H1, but no figure given for H2. He says the figure will be 'dwarfed'! Brokers numbers are showing about 2.5%.

That's as clear a statement as you can get from BK that 2022 Broker numbers are way off - try 3.5% or more and on revenue of £280m - £10m.

I can't see this dipping too much now. The last dip barely lasted two days. There are too many people who can do the maths for themselves and see through to the final figures, as above. 2023, eps will easily be over £1.00, making forward PER now less than 7.

Think you spoke too soon, Sparks. It's surprising how many traders have been in this since the rise started. Clear consensus amongst them, that this is as far it goes for now. If it stops going up, their rule is sell. Without traders buying in, sp may struggle - what the traders want, for those looking to buy back in. However, so far sp holding ok ish, suggesting investors are picking up the sold trader's shares. Traders will be targeting a price below 600 (560, 570, 580) to get back in ... ... ... a fair chance they may get lucky, who knows?

I reckon they are going off broker's numbers, on that basis sp is fully up with events, arguably ahead. But it only takes a 1% beat on margins (gp% and / or bad debt %) and it's nearly another £3m on the bottom line - with only 16.5m shares in issue, the final accounts are likely to surprise (big time) on earnings per share, and hence, on the sp.

And another thing - the maths doesn't work on the monthly bookings and total booked for 2023. It should be higher. My guess is as I posted before - some customers will have signed short (6 month) contracts, so the monthly bookings figures are high (they are annualised) and the total pre-booked for 2023 looks low (as the 6m contracts are for 6m, and not 12). What I am saying is, if they had booked 12m contracts, the forward sales figure for 2023 would be quite a bit higher. As customers on short contracts renew, this will become more evident, through 2023. Meaning, that total revenue for 2023 should be higher even than the optimistic forecasts (like mine).

Notes - forward revenue was £119m for 2023 at end of Aug per interim accounts. Add estimate for Sept of £20m, plus Q4 of 3 * 48.6, total of £285m, but only £247m disclosed in TU. Approx. £40m 'missing' (presumed to be short 6 month contracts included in monthly bookings, which are an annualised figure). IF I am guessing correct here, 2023 revenue should comfortably reach / exceed £450m.

https://youtu.be/eEAb2ZYqa0o?t=640

TU pretty much as expected. Thanks Sparks for the SCSW link.

Final turnover may be at the £280m mark. I think the gp% may be half a percent higher and bad debts easily 1% lower, perhaps 1.5% lower than brokers (some on here think much lower). Taking all this in, adjusted EBITDA is over £10m. They will have tax losses in hand. So, eps for 2022 is clearly now close to 50p or higher.

My short term target is now 900p, pending March results and further guidance for 2023. Based on bookings, 2023 revenue should be over £400m, £450m is a bit of a stretch on the figures given, but there will be additional customers not on contract (unknown amount).

Fair comment. However,

I have noticed fake positive reviews (in general, including for my own business) are really a **** take, with a joke user name motivated by jealousy, spite & resentment. Bad reviews are nearly always bad customers who are trying it on, demanding something for nothing and special treatment or unviable discounts on price. I have not looked at Yu's reviews, but would guess that they relate to Yu chasing them up for payment (ie a bad debt they no longer supply) or whinging on the price or some other contract term - think of the fat guy running down the beach screaming 'I'm so money.supermaket.com' - it's called narcissism - deserving a discount that they think other customers should pay for!

Same in the insurance market since they banned introductory discounts. There were loads of 'bad' reviews from customers who stayed with their current company, claimed to be 'loyal' and expected their price to come down, as they weren't switching, but the price was way up - the truth is, they were on an introductory price to start with, as it was the first year of being with that company. They just vociferously mouth off, are rude to customer service on the phone, don't get the discount they demand, go elsewhere and find the price is all but identical. A three year old child screaming for an ice cream, and the parent says no - nightmare job.

Today's price at bang on 700p is just plain weird - maybe traders selling out with a round 700p target? and the rest of the market lapping it up. If you wait a week or two, you may get a better exit price, or even wait till March results. If you're in no rush to sell, then don't rush the decision. But, we'll all begin to take some out gradually as the sp rises - doesn't seem rational to have £250k, £500k, £1m, £2m ???? in one stock.

Gacky, thanks for the feedback. As said before, we are clearly in the same ball park with our future expectations, as are all the LTHs on here (or those silent ones lurking in the background). There are some very astute investors / posters in here who seem to have reached the same conclusion.

'Group think' may be deluding us with confirmation bias, of course, but so far, so good!

Hi Gacky - a lot in there!

The market will not fully recognise the numbers until they are 'in the bag' - ie published accounts. 2021 numbers included hedging gains (marked to market, which reverse out in the following years) and a tax credit. In 2021, real profit was negligible. As you (we) are aware, once fixed costs are covered, future growth drops to the bottom line. 2022 is the first year this will really show through. I think the company will now receive a sensible valuation, and I think it will be at around 20 PER. However, as the year progresses, this will become a forward PER of 20, rather than a backward one, meaning the sp should continue to trend up, month on month, as it becomes more obvious as to what 2023 profits are likely to come out at.

Current ii's will sell down a bit - Miton is a micro cap fund and will take profits, allowing new ii's in. BK will also likely place a small part of his holding with ii's, to increase ii's holdings and gain better recognition. I can't see BK selling out (see TEP and Charles Wigoder, who has recently placed shares (again) due to demand (again) from institutions).

There have been a good few posters on here, plus Sparks, who have disclosed holdings in excess of 100,000 shares. PI's holding over 100k must account for a good 10% of the total. Pis holding 40k to 100k, again probably total another 10% (I'm in that bracket). The free float is tiny - I can see both benefits and concerns on this point, but believe a realistic valuation will eventually win out, hence, not too worried.

Going forwards, there is now little competition, strict Ofgem criteria, and no price war. Gross margins will trend to 20%, quite quickly as the customers renew. Energy prices are not going to go back to pre pandemic levels, though will fall somewhat. All points to very strong profit growth.

For 2023, 2024, 2025, I have put in revenue of 450, 650, 900m. GP margin of 17 to 18%. Overheads of 19, 24, 29m. Bad debts at 6%, 5.5 and 5.5% of revenue. You can do the sums on that for EBITDA, knock off tax and I am using 17m share count. Just my thoughts, no better or worse than any broker!

See you all tomorrow, TU permitting!

Gacky - certainly in the right ball park with those numbers. I'm gunning for 450m in 2023, 650m for 24 and 900m for 2025. I do slightly more detailed sums, and likewise your eps figures are more than good enough for a rough estimation.

What is most promising is the appearance of more posters on here, new names, who can do their own research and ignore current broker forecasts. There is unlikely to be a tax charge this year (2022), so the 2022 eps will be higher than you suggest. Any reduction in the bad debt %, either this year and most notably next (23) will also significantly increase your figures for 2023. It's people like you we need to be invested here, as these people will buy in and move the sp rapidly, even from the current sp. Those who rely on broker numbers (until revised) probably won't.

I've a feeling the brokers will be lazy at this TU and provide no new figures, but say that they have under estimated and promise to re-do their numbers in March. (I think SP Angel did exactly this last January.) Going to be a very interesting day, both in what the TU says, and how the sp reacts.

Well,
there's only one thing you can do with a storm ... ... ...

And that's - to ride it out!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_zU6R7IMns

However, more usually performed like this!
https://youtu.be/_Iq8MAqKmvM?t=4140