RE: This would be funny if it wasn't so sad...17 Nov 2022 20:56
Hi Dog
Shoot all the bluejays you want ... ... ... but it's a sin to kill a mocking bird.
In the spirit of due diligence and not mocking any one ... ... ...
I suggest you re-read my various posts following Q2. You made some replies that they made sense to you, and were perhaps triggering concerns. The fact that Tosca rang into the conference call was a shocker - never heard major SHs on a call before, and asking the right sort of question, basically something's not right here. If any of the big three holders start to exit ... ... ...! Though I can't see them doing so, as they would trash the sp against themselves.
The 100m TVs referenced for Fifa is because it is no longer exclusive to Vidaa, but TRMR does have an exclusive contract with Fifa, for all TVs with the app downloaded. Live matches are not included, which is where most viewers are - licensed by Fifa to broadcasters. Perhaps this is a trial by Fifa to moving to a direct streaming ad model in the future for live sport, to cut out the profits of broadcasters? Other sport governing bodies may follow - would be absolutely massive, and TRMR have first mover advantage! But for this year, it'll be $2-4m revenue order for TRMR and won't move the dial on Q4 numbers. But this is one to watch for in the next few years. A lot of work / investment is needed by both broadcaster and SSP to set this up, and once the partnership is formed, it's difficult to switch to another SSP.
Re CTV in general - market is $16bn (thereabouts) gross spend. I now know only about $4bn is programmatic with the rest sold traditionally and direct. TTD has about $2bn of that $4 on the demand side. CTV is growing big time and the proportion that will become programmatic is also increasing rapidly. So far, Netflix has gone direct, to quickly get up and running, but will go programmatic, as the ad rates are 2,3, 3.5 times higher, cpms at $50, $60 and $70, rather than $10 - $25 range for lesser targeted ads. DSPs and SSPs get a % of the ad fee (take rate). The more CTV there is, and the higher the cpm, for TTD the growth is going to be huge. Hence, TTDs rating, though at today's price, arguably cheap. TTD gets a take rate of 20%. However, take rates for SSPs are very much smaller, can be below 5%. Magnite has said it will not disclose them, nor disclose its gross spend! For reference, TTDs CTV spend has doubled every year since 2019, and their trend continues.
Overall, it's early days in this ad shift to CTV, but the big money is already spoken for, and not going to TRMR. TRMR needs a self service DSP to attract the big advertisers and major inventory on the SSP. Streaming live sport has its possibilities. For an investment, I need a lot more conviction and certainty than hope value. The next two Qs are likely to be year on year declines, and I would expect the sp to continue falling in response. I had a large holding and took the loss, unable to stomach more unrealised losses mounting.
Smell
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