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It is also worth noting ‘The Quadrettes’ team from Highlands College moved up to 3rd from 6th and this is largely due to their holding of Yu Group, a small-cap UK energy supplier, whose share price is up 20.36% this year and rose over 10% in the past week.
https://jerseyeveningpost.com/business/2023/01/20/ashburton-portfolio-competition-week-2-results/

https://www.ashburtoninvestments.com/int/why-us/jersey-schools-investment-challenge

Somebody's clearly coaching them, or at least given them a long list of suggestions as to where to look.

TU date is not usually pre-announced by Yu. Looking at last three years, it has always been the last Tuesday of January. This year, the 31st is a Tuesday! Which is possibly a bit late? Therefore, likely to be Tuesday 24th???????

tbh, I think it will be Tues, Wed or Thurs of next week ... ... ...

Saxman, yes, I can fully see where you are coming from with that comment. Broker figures are still at the 30p eps mark for 2022. This was trading at 300p last year after the Jan update, on 2021 adj eps of 15p - ie PER of 20. TEP has tended to trade on 20 PER for years, and eps for this year to March 2023 is expected to be around 100p (sp is just over £20). So, given the current numbers in the market, 600p is at 20 PER and now will appear as a fair price to many. It was on this basis that I posted an uplifted short term target to 600p, pending the Jan update, back in December (21st).

The LTHs on here know the business well. The 2022 figures will be substantially beaten, and with only 16.5m shares in issue, the eps will be way higher than 30p. I am expecting more than 45p. At 20 times is a sp of 900p, and that's before profits more than doubling in 2023. 12 to 15 months on from now, sp should be £18 to £20, if we LTHs are proved correct.

The TU will give us details to re-calibrate profit and sp expectations.

Canaccord now saying buy with 149p target (presumably 12 months out). Paul Hill on Vox saying 160p

I'm still crunching the numbers and considering things, and will post up soon. Looking back on my December post which is unnervingly accurate, and want as good as a forecast as I can come up with. Provisionally, I'm at revenue for 2023 in the order of 89m and EBITDA of 18m (plus). Again, sticking to 15 times EBITDA, is somewhere at 160 - 170p per share. I seem to expecting higher profits than the brokers & analysts, but am valuing the business on a lower multiple, giving similar target prices.

Given EBITDA now of 12m, at 15 times is comfortably over the 100p mark. The market is clearly signalling a different message, however ... ... ... Still early in the day, though, and sp now finding a solid floor at 92p. May take a week or so for sp to find itself a new level. 100p is showing as massive resistance, but once gone it's gone. IST in the Vox interview says the 2023 forecasts he has put into the market (via brokers) are sensible, and that he hopes to beat them. So, likely to be another year of broker upgrades, with the sp lagging behind fair value, again, month on month.

Nap is short for Napoleon and indicates a tipster's main fancy for the day. (Horse racing / betting term)
The term is originally French believed to come from the card game Napoleon.
It indicates a player's best hand.
In the game, when a player believes they have the winner it's called a Napoleon.

https://racingquestions.co.uk/what-is-the-origin-of-nap/

So, now we know what that means!!

Update is 17th, I think (Tues). Hoping, like all of us, that £1 will be finally broken. We should get a turnover figure, but obviously, no EBITDA number. Should be some comment on direction of travel for current trading. Q4 2022 will have been 19 / 20m revenue, so even with no further growth, 2023 will be £80m revenue. Adding in something for growth, say 84m (plus), should hopefully provide the catalyst to get this over 100p ... ... say 110 to 120 range.

What looks to be 'mad' share price behaviour over last few days won't show up on the chart looking back from a point 3 months on. The sp had shot up and up, and then up from 500 to 560 in one day. SCSW tip would have brought in their subscribers and other non subscribers who take advantage for short term trades. Traders buying 2,000 to 5,000 shares, having made up to 200p per share in a matter of days will have bagged a gift on a plate - not many shares do this in so little time. Stop losses will have been pitched at the 500p mark (a bit under or over) and once triggered, the sp plunged to 460 - 470. Coupled with news about reduced government support for business energy will have further clouded investors' minds in justifying bailing out.

Bad debt debate / concerns remain ongoing, and until we have figures from the company uncertainty will persist. As ever, uncertainty is bad for shares as the market errs on the side of caution. Brokers forecasts have the chance of being beaten on both turnover and bead debt. My view is that bad debt at 7-8% is on the high side, but not overly so - 5.5-6.5% is my feeling and even at this rate profit growth and cash flow is substantial. Brokers figures for 2023 are too low, and the brokers fully acknowledge this - they are waiting for full 2022 numbers plus appropriate guidance from the company. before updating. The investment case remains intact - sp is on a low PER and that low PER is off low brokers eps figures.

Interestingly, the pull back fell to and bounced off the 20 dma (exponential) - as I said at the top, this will look perfectly normal looking back in three months.

Again, opinions differ - I have doubts iis are buying in yet at scale to produce an rns - feels like pis and traders following the SCSW tip and traders getting tips from trading apps, which simply recommend trading the momentum. Once over 100m mcap ii's will be more interested, but I think it will be after the full 2022 results before there is real interest from them - they need to see a good long term growth story. Also, it will need the current iis to reduce holdings for others to buy at scale and they will have exit targets above where we currently are.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vidaa-takes-aim-at-us-market-301715104.html

Other side of the coin - Hisense kind of kicked out Roku from their TVs to more fully focus on Vidda. Makes sense as the smart TV platform gets 'paid' by streaming channels / apps for allowing them to be available on the platform. The payment is in kind - a proportion of the ad slots are allowed to be monetized by the platform so the platform gets the ad revenue rather than the actual channel streamed. Hisense / Vidaa want the dosh rather than letting it go to Roku. For TRMR, there is much more to be had here than just the use of the acr data, given it's now only being fully launched, little shows so far in TRMR's figures ... ... ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1VdEfIxSKM

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64155064

Sounds ok - 12 months of 'cover' / certainty.

Trek - to clarify the discussions on here, the 100p dividend is based on expectations that 2023 will be revenue in excess of £450m (the company has strongly intimated that they will exceed £500m and exceed a 4% EBITDA margin). This will give eps of 150p upwards. The dividend payments mentioned were an interim in the region of 30p + and a final of 60p +, but the payment dates, obviously, are after the results announcements. Hence, the 30p interim due sometime after September 2023, and the 60p due sometime after March 2024. Opinions differ slightly as to in what actual month the payment date will be - my suggestions are Nov/Dec and Jun/Jul, and ipc is suggesting perhaps 2/3 months earlier.

The 100p dividend is certainly there, assuming of course the company reaches its £500m target (or close to it). As of now, both ipc and myself are in the £450 - 480m range for 2023 revenue. The brokers specifically state that their 2023 numbers are 'old' and in need of updating (they haven't got around to it yet!). eg Look at the gp% in the Angel report for 2023 - way, way too low, and also they are too low on bad debt, and clearly revenue does not match the company's own guidance.

Consider the following - Revenue of £450m, 17% gp margin, gp of 76.5m. Admin costs / overheads of 19m and bad debt at 6% of revenue, gives EBITDA of 30.5m. However much I play with the parameters, the uplift in profits for 2023 and onwards is simply just huge.

Thanks ipc for the summary of the dividend / cash position / ROC situation. As we know, the cash position is somewhat mis-leading, as the ROC payments are accruing every month, and so the cash figure is not freely available (there is always a looming ROC liability to off set it). But now the company is becoming significantly profitable this will reverse itself out during the next 6 - 10 months - the cash balance will be much more than the accruing ROC payments, in time.

Previously, dividends were paid in January 2019 and September 2018 - the interim 2018 and final 2017 dividends respectively. I think the final 2022 dividend will not be paid until after the AGM (May), but do not expect it to be as late as September (2023)! I am expecting a payment date June / July. By then, half of the 2023 profits will be in, which should allow for the payment of the ROC and a larger dividend than your expectations - I am hoping for something in the order of 15p - 20p. The interim 2023 dividend is unlikely to be paid until say November / December. As you, this interim dividend should be in the region of 30p +, especially if they are on track for £450m + revenue in 2023 (eps at that level are at 150p, even with a high bad debt provision).

Plenty of 'relatively' cheap shares on offer today, with most folk busy with the holiday period. Looking forward to the Jan update, which on reflection of last year's, actually gives a lot of detail (revenue, no. of meters, monthly bookings, cash, forward contracted revenue).

LG have kicked out the Alphonso management team. Looks like they have bought out the equity too. LG Ads revenue went from $100m in 2021 to expected $300m in 2022 and $500m expected in 2023. Now we know what TRMR really lost. All growth appears to be down to ACR data targeted ads. Possible implications re the court case?
https://www.adexchanger.com/tv-2/lg-just-ousted-the-ceo-and-executive-chairman-of-its-ad-tech-division-alphonso/

I continue to no longer have a holding here, but still watching this play out.

Looks like valuation gap could close very, very quickly?

Folk are buying relentlessly, not blinking or pausing for breath. Not the slightest bit bothered about the price they are paying, just want in - ie they have a valuation in mind of what this is worth now, what it will be worth 12 months on, and can can clearly see a multi bagger from the price they are paying, even from 540 / 600 / 700 / 800

Do the maths - 2022
Revenue at 285m, gp% at 15.5, so gross profit of 44m, overheads of 15m and bad debt at say 6.5% (18.5m) = EBITDA of 10.65. Excluding any hedging gain, and after tax, then eps is almost 50p. (At 5.5% bad debt, eps would be over 60p.) This may be optimistic, but brokers are saying over 30p eps on figures that will be upgraded come January.

For 2023, try putting in revenue of 450m, 480m, 500, expect an increase in gp margin (16.5%, maybe 17%), add on 4 - 6m overheads increase / costs for Yu Smart, and keep a relatively high bad debt charge of 6 - 8%. Lets cut the BS and properly take the gloves off - we are looking at eps in the region of 150p or more. PER of 20+, is £30 share price. AND a dividend of maybe £1 per share for 2023 has already been mooted on here too!

Folk buying in now are all on the same hymn sheet. All bets are off now as to where the sp will end up and in how short a time frame.

Caution for all - beware of blatant rampers' posts on share bulletin boards. DYOR

Why 9% relevant? RNS required at every 1% from 3% upwards?

"
In accordance with the London Stock Exchange (LSE) rules, Panel of Takeover and Mergers board (PTM) rules, an investor who acquires, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% of a UK Company, must, under the Companies Act 1985 Section 198, disclose their interests to the London Stock Exchange and the company, within two days. The company may impose sanctions if disclosure not completed.
"

Noted Sparks. I've hinted / asked before - who is selling to enable the buys? The MMs are getting stock from somewhere to balance their trading books. On the daily numbers now, as you say, over 100k shares a day, it's a serious puzzle. There are occasional large sales - I did at one point think the odd institution was feeding a few shares to create a functional market, they can afford to sell a few to get the price up, as that then benefits the value of their remaining holding, however, they can't be doing this at a rate of 100k a day, they'd soon have nought left. Hence, I'm left mystified and no one can provide a plausible explanation!

Sp now at 480p and still climbing fast. Even at this price, the valuation gap is enormous. eps in 2023 will be well, well north of 100p (including a high bad debt provision). A PER of 20 is sensible. Sparks, your 1000p target surely needs doubling?

If 500m is hit in 2023, (and almost 300m in 2022), then that's roughly 150m, then 200m year on year growth. At this rate, the £1bn revenue will come in 2025. Doing the maths on that is fairly easy re the profits. After then, I would think they will need to step change the overheads to much larger premises and staff numbers ... ...

Well, got my short term target of 450p. Now being forced to reflect in light of the circumstances! New short term target now is 600p - pending review on the Jan trading update. If revenue comes in at 285m +, will be looking for 900p or more in pretty short shrift.

SP28, just got your post, on the same lines here.

Yea, agree there. I think the Jan trading update will surprise to the upside and give the shares a further boost. Unfortunately, TUs tend to be a bit shy with actual numbers are generally waffle and wordy. They usually give a revised turnover figure though, which is pretty key here. (Which even then will be 5m ish less than in the final accounts). Will have to wait till March for the real blast off. With such a low share count, a small increase in profits is significant to eps, and therefore to the sp. Hence, surprises on the upside will have a very marked effect.

Still also on a low rating, and against (IMO) low broker profit figures for 2022. Much, much more to come here over the next weeks and months.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DT91uvU1bg

Useful interview in link.