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Picked up on some local news today.

NYCC (North Yorks CC) had been forecast to be in a £30m deficit this year. Recently been revised down to £25, due to planning, cuts, revised budget estimates etc. One thing stood out though - they have changed their energy supplier to get better rates and save some money. The suppliers weren't named. However, it is likely that all government and public sector bodies will have been reviewing their energy suppliers for the same reasons. Hopefully, Yu has been net gainers here - comes with high numbers of meters, with high usage, no bad debt risk, but usually on a lower gross margin.

No one commenting on the late reported trade? 48,308, at 932.5p!

Doesn't look like the options to me - per rns they are not admitted for trading until the 29th. I've no issue with the size, it helps explain where all the stock came from to feed the buying frenzy. But the price is just weirdly so odd! Done a good few dummy sales quotes in the past few days, and no problem selling large chunks within the spread. It's a very strange trade at such a low price - it's just not a balanced price between the two sides.

Somebody's not playing cricket!

Ipc - and that's the bottom line. Those of us on here prepared to guesstimate over and above the brokers seem to have formed a consensus in the same ball park. H1 results should clearly point to full year eps north of 100p. Even in a poor market, sp should trade comfortably over £12.

Well, there's my buyer waiting in the wings - 15,000 bought at 996. When they raised the bid to 993, I can see a good 10k sells at 993 / 994 (though since marked as buys), so that's managed to get the buyer their shares at just under £10. Trying to sell a block of shares now and they are offering 980 - 984. MMs clearly very professional / experienced and can tease out enough shares to fill the buy order.

ipc - maybe right, it's a massive psychological barrier at £10, not rational, but that's markets. I think we'll see £11 to £12 leading close up to H1 results. I'd be surprised with any news before then, the last TU was pretty comprehensive, and gave a date for H1 results (which is unusual for Yu pre-announcing that early). I think the H1 results are being carefully planned and will be a significant day, with figures well ahead, plus news of continuing good trading, with a lot of publicity and interviews. They have been very quiet all year really, heads down and focused on the business.

I think they are keeping shtum until they have precise figures (as they did at the AGM).

Sticky price at £10. Tried some dummy sales, no problem selling 2k, 5k, 6k even 10k shares and getting a price within the spread, which is currently 990 - 1000p. However, very few trades, no body willing to sell at this price, but clearly buyers are lined up, but there is little to no stock.

Difficult to interpret. Can understand the lack of sellers. Those who targeted at £10 exit are probably out by now. Lots of buyers wanting stock, but they are unwilling to bid up the price aggressively to get it, at least for now. MMs will have to lift their buy price to tempt the next tranche of sellers, and then hence their sell price to sell on to all the buyers waiting in the wings. Psychological games - kind of trying to trick sellers into selling by not lifting the price, if some think this is as good as it gets for now / trying the patience of potential sellers?

Not been a trade for nearly an hour. Once they pop the bubble, this could move pretty quickly, if it triggers momentum trades.

More from Gervais Williams. He refers to Yu Group at the end, in response to a question. Basically thinks brokers numbers are too low, esp for 2024 and 2025. Cash will be far higher!

https://youtu.be/xsXLVqMs0_U?t=2395

Https://www.youtube.com/live/sWvy4MNO000?feature=share&t=1677

TRMR discussed as big news of the day! "They are missing their numbers" Brokers and investors are being 'caught off guard' by the repeated downgrades.

Still out, but still watching, not yet buying back in.

Hi ipc - that's some expectation for the full year! I neither agree nor disagree. I said earlier that it's getting more difficult to predict, so I have a wide range as possible, which is £460m to £560m (depending on the quality of the new customers). eps could be any thing from 120p to north of 160p.

It's a case of letting the market walk the sp upwards. Going with brokers' 80p at 15 times gives £12 as a short term target, pending H1 results, when no doubt brokers will be forced to upgrade again. There was massive buying demand yesterday, so it's on a clear up trend now. As the sellers are exhausted at each price level, the price will then move up to tempt the next tranche of sellers to take profits. There's no need to bid the price up too fast, so long as there's sellers at each price point. They can't buy what is not being offered for sale, with such a small free float! This is going to be interesting!

I think we're on the radar now of income seeking investors.

Hi Sparks, yes, clearly the 80p eps from SP Angel is low. Their gp% looks low to me (they did 18% in H2 last year and I see no reason for a decline). They have only upgraded revenue to £405m, from £392m - I don't call that 'significant' and the RNS certainly hints that £500m is in sight this year. I would say that £460m, at least, is a safe call for now, not wanting to over estimate. The meter points are up over 50% - all organic, that is just super sonic growth, and so H2 revenue is bound to be well up on H1, perhaps not by 50%, but getting on for that. A 50% uplift H1 to H2 is revenue over £500m for the year. And of course new customers will continue to come in during H2. All this means is that 2024 will be way up again, as all these new customers contribute a full twelve months of revenue to next year. As the RNS says - they have substantial revenue visibility for 2023 and beyond. Even better, if these bookings and new customers have signed up for two or three year contracts, 2025 numbers are in the picture also!

Not sure what they'll do about dividends. Maybe 30p to 40p in total, so say 10p to 15p for the interim, and then a further big increase in 2024.

HA ha - £220 - £230m !! Sorry.

Sparks, that's my reading of it too. But something has spooked a load to sell. Revenue is the most critical number the market will have been looking for to confirm the figures. Deliberately withholding information is not good for investor relations!

RNS - Another above market expectations, and that's above the £400m in the previous broker notes. So, say £460m ish, would indicate H1 revenue at £420 to £430m. Clearly, £500m revenue is in sight this year, maybe more. The 5% margin will be exceeded too - so let's say £500m at 6% gives 2023 EBITDA in region of £30m. eps on this is 130p - 150p range.

Taking a load of sells at 780. Will be late reported buys coming through at 790 ish. Usually an hour or so delay?

Tried dummy sales, and they'll take 6,000 shares at 780. 10,000 shares went to NT. I've no cash, so can't try a large dummy buy.

RNS - seems to omit the most important number - revenue for H1. Very, very annoyingly odd, even suspicious!

Latest on broker mis selling scandal

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/trade-groups-demand-ofgem-tackle-energy-brokers-ripping-off-small-firms/ar-AA1eeOwn?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=12035c5e210b41209eb5418cea2ab7bd&ei=13

No issues with that suggestion - 190 - 220m, though I will be disappointed with a figure below 200m. Remember that they will err with caution, and give a figure say up to £5m less than what the actual number turns out to be!

The key here is that the numbers will confirm the brokers numbers of at least 400m, and therefore at least 61p eps. I can't see the sp remaining on 12 times forward rating with the 61p confidently 'in the bag'.

It's then a waiting game for the H1 results proper. Gross margin is paramount. In the brokers notes they have 16% for 2023. However, H1 2022 was 14% gp margin and H2 was 18% (which gives an average for 2022 as a whole of 16%, which is in the final accounts). Now, if they are still getting 18%, another 2% on 400m is £8m, so about 50p in eps - putting 2023 eps at comfortably over 100p and on only 400m revenue. Increasing the revenue from 400m puts 2023 eps way over 100p.

The problem here is how sensitive the bottom line is to even a 1% change in margins, which is further magnified by the small share count. As revenue increases, more so! Forecasting is difficult. But we can safely take brokers numbers as 'in the bag' and they are 'at least' numbers. It will take the full H1 figures to see the true picture!

Peace & quiet is a good thing. A quiet confidence and consensus seems to be here. The traders, trolls and scavengers have gone. I think a lot of traders lost money on the dip after results and the sell off post AGM (no trading update) and having been burnt, unlikely to return (to the share or the board).

Will be the first confirmed numbers from the company, which should back up the brokers' 60p eps figures. Obviously hoping for the sp to react and start to head towards a forwards earnings multiple, rather than backwards. 15 times would be a good start, and a gradual trend towards 20 times come early 2024 (with the added bonus of further upgrades). Hence, say 15 times the 60p, gives 900p as a short term target. I am expecting upgrades with the interims in September, but who knows? Brokers may upgrade with the TU? If so, more than 900p !!

Ipc - yes, likewise. It's a scheduled full TU, so along the lines of what we normally get in July (and January) each year.

The pent up demand line was a key phrase for me, from May. With the gov support ending March, many customers signed short contracts to end at this point - this will be across all suppliers. Hence, bookings will be Yu's own customers renewing, plus a windfall of new business picked up over the last 6 months - my theory anyway!

Gacky - I'd say the total of £255m looks too high. The company will still be losing customers who cease to trade (ie go bust leaving a bad debt). These lost customers will obviously produce no revenue going forwards, so you may need to knock some off for this. This will then leave you with a figure at say £220m - exactly as IPC's suggestion.

For what it's worth, my guess / 'model' is giving about the same - £210m to say £230m tops. Any way you slice it, it should be over £200m, meaning full year will then be comfortably over the £400m current broker consensus. They are clearly picking up significant business from other suppliers.

Just hope they give figures at the TU - ie, revenue, average bookings, maybe no. of meters installed (Yu Smart), and total number of meters on supply (this figure in particular will indicate the level of new business, which if up by a good few thousand, will point to H2 being well up on H1, so full year getting close to the £500m mark is back on the table as possible).

As long as gross margins hold up and bad debt percentage is in line, then full year eps is north of 100p on these numbers. In fact, even H1 eps is north of 60p on these numbers (which is a laugh, as the brokers are at 60p for the full year)!

sp is basically going to go ballistic - certainly after H1 results, if not sooner.

Last posted in May, saying "I'm still sticking with £95m revenue for the year, and EBITDA will be at the top of range guess of 19-21m."

Need to tweak this up a tad, so revenue of £97m at least, and £100m is a possibility. Allowing for losses on Oonex, and going with the 20% guidance, then EBITDA will be in that order, 19-21m.

Revenue is growing at £30m a year (last year and this), even without Europe. Running the numbers for 2024, at say £130m - £140m revenue, then the leverage really comes through, with EBITDA doubling and eps nearly tripling! Then add in Europe ... ... ...

It's a case of when, not if, the market sees through to 2024 and begins to price in this growth. This time next year, the sp won't be any where near the 100p level. In fact 200p should be dust.

TEP results out. Eps 99p, dividend 80p.

"The Board adopts a disciplined approach to the allocation of capital, with the overriding objective being to enhance long-term shareholder value. Our primary objective when allocating capital is to fund sustainable organic growth. Beyond that we have followed a long-standing progressive dividend policy in order to return surplus capital to our shareholders. "

Hoping for a similar policy from Yu re dividends paid out.

TEP has traded around 20 PER for years, been a holder on / off for years. Never seen TEP so cheap as late (dipped below 1500p) which I find strange given these results were bang on the company's guidance. Possibly due to higher interest rates - a higher dividend yield is being demanded, so this means a lower share price. Same will read across to Yu.

Hi Sparks,

two points to bare in mind - they need cash for Yu Smart. Picked up from somewhere that the meters are around £300 each to buy and the payback in savings from renting them from someone else etc are about £100 per year, per meter. So 3 year break even. They have suggested they may use debt to finance meters, basically a three year rolling loan / big overdraft, to free up cash even further. This implies to me this would be to pay out most profit as dividends - ie. say 70-85% payout ratio of eps, which is in line with other utilities, and will bring in the income dividend seeking investors which the company has suggested it wants on the register. They may though stick with being debt free and use cash flow for Yu Smart.

Not all the cash is theirs. The ROC payments will accrue from April to December, so at December a big chunk of the cash is ROC monies payable the following August. A better figure to look at is net current assets in the balance sheet, ie cash plus debtors, less trade creditors, including ROC monies payable. What is left is the company's. At December 2022, net current assets were only £1m (£75m current assets and £74m current liabilities), which would have severely limited the 2022 dividend (to 3p). In 2021, it was £2m net current liabilities, which on some definitions, is technically insolvent! This year, net current assets should rise by the profits (less Yu Smart spending, any tax paid, less dividends paid etc), so the cash available for 2023 dividends is clearly there.

£1 dividend has been discussed before on here! 2024 - it's on the table as very possible! 30p, 40p is not unreasonable in my mind for 2023 (though obviously the final dividend won't be paid till June next year, interim payable say November / December time). Question will be answered in due course!