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Gacky - yes, pretty much my thinking, close to £300m in total bookings in the last four months, to add to the end of August figure they have already given.

The meters number is a bit of a strange one. My guess is at the 55,000 mark for this year end, but ideally needs to be closer to your 60,000 to give them a fair chance of the 100k for 2024. But BK's comment in the IM presentation was for only 45 - 47k, which seems at odds with all the other metrics he was putting out. So, some conflicting info there!

SMS has been on my watch list for a long while, but always seemed over priced to me as a share. However, if valued as a bond proxy, then I can understand the bid (and an inflation linked bond at that). If I wanted the rate of return from a bond, then I would buy bonds in the first place, and not invest in shares! Worth looking at their meter install rate per month, compared to where Yu Smart is now.

Nice to see sp close over 1,150p, and therefore hopefully break this weird wedge like pattern in the chart, to the upside. Really need to break the old 2018 highs though ... ...

Chance of a TU now getting on the remote side, but not ruled one out completely. All signs are that numbers are well ahead of last broker notes, so we may get something before end of January. They are just too busy with the high growth to get one out!

Memo to self -

December 2020 forward bookings of £93m, final 2021 revenue of £155m - 67% increase.

December 2021 forward bookings of £157m, final 2022 revenue of £279m - 78% increase.

December 2022 forward bookings of £247m, final 2023 revenue of £470m (est) - 90% increase.

December 2023 forward bookings of £600m (est), final 2024 revenue of £1,080m - estimate at 80% increase.

What then for 2025?

MoneyWorks - no, not a subscriber, that's just a free article linked from the home page. Offer of £50 off, though looks tempting. I was subscribed to Growth Company Investor for many years, but it's stopped trading (editor retired, and was too much work for just one person). That was excellent and SCSW is no where close to that. You can download a free sample copy of one month of SCSW - overall I'm not too keen on it. I have in fact subscribed to Regency Research instead, which I posted on a while back and took advantage of their offer. This too is not as good as GCI was, but I rate it considerably better than SCSW. Regency's offer was also £149 (for both AIM and the main market), the link is still live, though should have ended yesterday. If you are interested, contact them first , or use the chat - I found them very accommodating and got them to do my renewal pricing next year with the same discounted rate.

https://regencyresearch.co.uk/black-friday-2023/

Https://www.scsw.co.uk/issues/october-2023/good-energy-sequence-of-forecasts-95p-183p-332p-and-69

IPC - I'm hoping for a tad higher figures. The new meters in H1 will have peaked around March with the drop off in gov support for energy prices, so they'll really only be in revenue for Q2. There will be a full half year to come through in Qs 3 + 4. The uplift from H1 to H2 should be significantly larger than in previous years. So, I have it pegged at £470m - £490m. Given their comments on the £500m target, reads like hints they will, near as damn it, be there. EBITDA - far harder to judge, but they will have given themselves plenty of margin of safety in the £33.5m call at H1, so 10% plus to add on.

I think the market is itching for a TU, to nudge the sp back into an uptrend, out of a frustrating range!

It's not over yet - give it until 7th Dec, before ruling out a TU before the usual January close of year. Poor Liberum have just done a broker's note from the investor day, they'll need another for the TU. Some planning has to go into the extra impromptu updates, detailed forward estimates & calculations and liaising with the brokers etc - they can't just knock one out, off the cuff. They need demonstrable numbers. They will probably have revenue number now for November and very good certainty re the numbers of meters for December invoicing.

Comparing this year with last, this year they gave a lot more information, details, and trends with H1 results. They gave firm guidance for full year EBITDA, expressed as 'at least' and repeatedly said that they expect to beat guidance! It's so heavily implied, it's as good as being expressly stated, that they are ahead - seems to be the impression from the investor day. The revenue figure in particular is looking very low at £425m.

My opinion - on a very strict interpretation of the rules, they have covered themselves. But good IR, courtesy & manners require an updated release. Guess it also depends on the advice from the Nomad (ie. Liberum).

LOL Sparks - didn't BK say it was a very nice problem to have in the IM presentation. The board are very aware of the cash position, as they said, and promised to announce the plans once decided. Hence, why I am suggesting they will deal with this issue in the next or the January update.

On a personal level, BK is in a tight spot - kind of with a conflict of interests. A bigger dividend will be millions to him, and he will get clobbered for 45% tax. It's not very tax efficient to himself to receive dividends of that size. He (and the rest of the board) have their legal responsibilities to the other shareholders / potential shareholders, which ultimately must prevail.

They want institutions on the register, and income seeking institutions at that. Premier Miton's increased stake has apparently gone into their Diverse Income Investment Trust, so GW is also clearly expecting a much bigger dividend payout. And that says all we need to know about where the dividends are heading.

Premier Miton now hold Yu in three funds - income investment trust, micro investment trust and a small cap unit trust (my understanding, but please correct if I have this wrong).

Saint - all valid points. As a retired accountant, I will add the following -

We could go to court and have the share premium account converted to distributable reserves (aka retained earnings, or the accumulated profit and loss account). But we don't need to (see below).

A share buy back also reduces the retained earnings, so needs big enough reserves. Again, they could apply to the court to allow them use of the share premium account.

To put some figures on things - by an increase in dividends, I am looking at say 25% payout of adjusted eps. Brokers are at 135p (?), I think we will be over 160p. So, a dividend of 40p - £6.8m total. Profit after tax this year, to be added to reserves will be getting on for £30m. There are no company law legal restrictions preventing dividends at this level. This will still leave a very strong balance sheet, with cash to use for hedging (if required) etc. Cash is forecast at £55m, plus? But remember the ROC monies are accruing all the time, so there will be a good £20m cash from that (which is clearly not distributable as they need to pay it over next August - it may be sat in cash, but it's also a creditor / liability. Some body asked a question about this in the IM presentation).

For 2024, dividends could (and should) be increased to say 40 - 50% of eps. On the figures mention by Gacky, Ipc and me, eps for 2024 should be around 300p. The dividend could be well over £1 per share in total for the year. Yu group is now a highly generative cash machine.

A busy board today.

Thanks to Gacky for the feedback. Sounds like it was a typical investor day, where there are detailed presentations by senior management department heads, explaining the day to day workings of the business. Market sensitive (trading info) is never given at these type of events and such questions are off-limits from the attendees.

I am of the same opinion I was - slightly more than a 50% chance we will get a TU shortly. They will need definitive figures for November, so will need to do the Nov invoice run first - therefore won't be before around the 27th.

Totally agree with Gacky's estimates for revenue, this year and onwards. I disagree with the share-back suggestion. My opinion is that dividends will be increased. Either in the next TU if there is one, or in the January update, I think they will spell out the capital allocation policy - it is increasingly remote they will do an acquisition, given how Gacky has described how they are positioning the customer base. That repositioning has to be done internally, organically. Without acquisitions, surplus cash can be distributed. They will have sufficient distributable reserves to do so, as all of this year's profits are added to reserves.

They have hinted at the annoyance of the share price before - but unfortunately this is a result of the very low free float. They are also clearly wanting a good few quality institutions on the register, which is commensurate with the quality of their shift in customer base. The only path to this outcome is a secondary placing from BK, which cannot / will not occur without the shares being sensibly priced (hence, their frustration over the sp). The surest way to correct this now is to pay out an appropriate proportion of earnings as dividends. The sp will lift, to trade on a market dividend yield. My opinion is that the final dividend in June will much, much higher, or a special dividend will be paid. There is even a possibility that they will declare a second interim dividend in the Jan update (payable Feb or early March before finals announced).

Everything Gacky has posted has further cemented my view points on this. An exciting company to follow at the moment. All will be revealed by the time of the finals and the presentations given in March!

That's a surprise! Grateful for the offer. I presume you work in the investment business, to be invited? Or has the uptake been low and they have widened the net of participants?

A summary report back would be welcome. Basically, is 100,000 meters realistic, it's a big ask - it's doubling in one year, are they going to sacrifice margins to attract this?

Would be nice to hear who actually attends, and how they plan to build a holding in the company, given almost no free float, most shares are in very firm hands who won't sell at this low valuation. With Premier Miton increasing, it's even more difficult. Is a low share price a concern and is it preventing iis buying in? If the share price was at a fair level, I (and others) would be willing to reduce the size of my holding.

Other more pressing questions are probably off-limits - are we getting a TU soon, have they decided what to do with all the cash (dividends please)!!!

Thanks, Gacky. Hope you have a very good and informative day.

Https://smallbusiness.co.uk/best-small-business-energy-brokers-and-switching-services-2571556/

ST of Investors Chronicle has also reported that Downing Micro Cap Investment Trust is going for an orderly wind up, to return capital to s/hs. Sorry to see this go, some decent companies in the trust, including Equals. More info, see their website, ticker DSM.

Interim results statements set out their reasons - low valuations of smaller companies, discount in sp of trust, long term mis-management of economy and society by governments / policy makers over the last 10 - 15 years! A grim read, they don't hold any punches back!

https://assets-global.website-files.com/6424344d8e0d4156b939a474/654cb6c86f6d2d3e8ee12a99_DSM3114_Downing_Strategic_Micro-Cap_Investment_Trust_Report_Half-yearly_Aug_2023.pdf

Https://regencyresearch.co.uk/performance/

They seem to have a certain style to me - combination of fundamentals and charts. Looks like they do well, big returns over 6 - 18 months and then exit. Doesn't mean they they have a negative view of the company, just locking in big profit. I can see why, chart wise - we are in a wide and volatile trading range from 1000p up to say 1200 / 1250p. 1250p is previous 2018 high, we look expensive on historic eps, but clearly the next TU (be it soon or January) should propel us out of that range.

The market is taking a longer term view though, the selling created liquidity that has quickly been bought into, allowing the buyers to buy shares which would otherwise not have become available to buy!

I'm tempted to sign up - deals at the moment!

https://regencyresearch.co.uk/black-friday-2023/

Not overly clear to me, but seems to explain it.

A technique known as watering the flowers and pulling up the weeds (run your winners, cut the losses).

But, makes it harder for any other institution to buy in. Ex CFO dropped from list, but also, where is Bayford / J Turner? Also, where were the RNS's from Miton declaring their increased holdings? These questions need answering.

I'm slowing changing my mind re potential TU. They said EBITDA at least 33m, so if it comes in at say 38m, they've probably covered themselves already! But, yes I also reckon T/o will be over 425, somewhere around 470-480m. Agree also on your 2024 figures, Ipc, expecting T/o at £750m plus. IF there is a TU, I think it will be the last week of Nov or first week in Dec. I think they should update the market, to clarify their estimates, but I'm not sure they need to by a strict interpretation of the rules.

However, they are certainly courting institutions to get on board, hence, updated higher figures would be welcomed. In fact, a must, you would think! 60% chance of an update!

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROFKJg6vc6I&t=32s

Equals discussed at various points throughout. PH's opinion almost exactly as mine - more than two suiters had approached them first over the preceding few months. They want the platform, therefore, will have to pay for the platform, over and above the current earnings. The board is simply doing its job in safeguarding the interests of all stakeholders.

"In the current market, we will be doing well with 20 times PER. I do not therefore expect the sp to go over 120p in the near term. The medium term though is very clear, and the leverage in margins very transparent (for any one who can do the maths)." From my post of 20.09.23.

My view (and it is a point of view, therefore may be wrong) - we are correctly valued based on current year earnings, and in line with current market conditions, a severe bear market on AIM. The company is adding 30-40m revenue a year, without Europe. I am not doing the maths for you for 2024 earnings. Current s/hs do not want out, in fact haven't they been adding recently. Not sure that the company has put itself up for sale, or that the company made the first move in approaching the suiters. Best guess is, that this a 'put up or shut up' response to the vultures. I don't expect a bid to materialise. So yes, if the market shares this opinion, the sp will drift back downwards. Traders who share this opinion will sell immediately.

As they have often said on earnings calls, their platform is worth much, much more than the current Mcap, based on their current earnings. Any bid will reflect this, so the premium will be very significant. Also, 2024 profits should be well up on 2023 - premium should also reflect this. I think any offer will have to be over the 200p mark. Much rather see them remain independent and to continue to follow their story.

I wouldn't think the average SME would know Yu exist - why they use brokers, to get them to find a suitable deal. Worth paying commission as someone else (an expert?) does the work and gets a deal they probably wouldn't find themselves. It's good that the brokers are willing to recommend Yu more often, with brokers getting a fast quote and good service from Yu. But yes, your points on margins all very plausible - CFO said 5-7% range target but also said 'cautious', leaving room for a tad over. I see 8 - 8.5% as being the top, longer term.

Re the share price - many factors in play, as always. Still very little coverage. SCSW has it, that's about it. Not even seen the results reported in Investors Chronicle. Last year eps about 30p, so now it looks like a PER of 40! (historic), which is very high and will stop certain buyers. IIs will not aggressively bid up the price (unlike PIs), but take their time, picking up what becomes available, as and when. As long as uptrend continues, all is OK.