Member Info for ShareNicelyNow

Good CC from PUBM - didn't shirk the macro environment, honest that should macro worsen then guidance would not be met. However, very confident in medium and long term re overall trends in growing digital ad spend and in the strength of their model and their company. No buyback planned for now, keeping cash to reinvest and grow. Long term plan is to get 20% market share!

Basically, short term macro is as it is. Long term all should be well. No imminent signs of Armageddon.

Time for a musical interlude - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKOY0P65NrM

Gdog, yes I am suggesting it is the market's expectations and not mine. But it would be wise to give the market the benefit of the doubt. These companies are very operationally geared - big changes in revenue go straight to the bottom line, both up and down.

Pubmatic are sticking to previous annual guidance. Normally, we would expect an increase, hence, this is a veiled decrease. They do refer to interest rates and inflation as concerns. Policical ad spend is expected in H2 - the implication is that without political spend, guidance would have been lowered.

CC at 10pm UK time.

No. Market expects a major and long recession, ad spend will be shafted - companies like TRMR will be into operational losses. TRMR is now being valued like an ad agency, not a growth tec stock. Even TTD is now being marked down accordingly. High energy fuel and food prices are bad enough - sharp rises in interest rates, really!!!!! Seems like the FED and BoE have decided to deliberately bust everything big time to rebalance the economy, including the housing market, bond and stock markets, in order to undo the disaster of QE and prolonged, unnaturally low interest rates. Reading between the lines of central bank speak, I think this is exactly what they are saying. A massive change in policy - they are just using inflation as a cover excuse for this. Astonishing incompetence of the highest order. Hence, much talk of central banks having lost all credibility - which they have - and the markets are screaming this is the case.

Pubmatic report tonight, and TTD tomorrow. Let's see what they say about macro events. I was shocked that neither PERI nor MGNI mentioned the general economy, and no analysts questioned them either on the confidence of their outlook statements. Should they miss, well ...... I am half expecting that they may decline to give guidance.

Not good for TRMR then - they have similar YoY growth indicated and CTV will be flatish, having lost the LG Alphonso income (which would have fallen straight to EBITDA) - mind you, stripping out the LG stuff, TRMR's other CTV income is growing ok, they will have replaced all that they lost to LG, even before Vidaa kicks in.

Magnite is now very heavy in CTV and missing out on growth in other areas. They are head on with Freewheel and not really making ground in nicking Freewheel's customers. Freewheel, owned by Comcast, has NBC and Sky tied in (Comcast owned), plus other larger customers than Magnite. I think the hype is mostly from Magnite's management - they expect to pick up pretty much everything else, and clearly they aren't and won't.

Very interested in what TRMR have to say re Vidaa and their improved CTV intelligence marketplace. Results date announcement due!

Would you mind elaborating as to why? Revenue spot on, a beat on EBITDA (costs lower than expected). Outlook promising, given macro environment, esp re CTV as some 'upfront' ad spend is moved to programmatic.

But, on a general level, I don't like the debt, think they overpaid for SpotX, not too keen on the management and they still have not integrated their separate platforms!

"""A theme that has emerged over the last couple of months has been the juxtaposition of mainly positive corporate news coupled with falling stock markets. Not all stock-specific news has been good of course; but the majority of results announcement and my conversations with management have been pleasing. Importantly, most outlook statements say the year has started well and performance is on track to meet expectations. As noted elsewhere in this month’s GCI, many companies are holding back brokers from upgrading, due to fears of recession, inflation and supply chain issues.

Those fears are well founded and markets looks forward, not at what happened today or yesterday. However, the
resilience of corporate performance coupled with falling stock markets mean value must be emerging. That will count for little if we are to be hit with a barrage of downgrades, but it does suggest a buffer is beginning to build.

There is a second element to stock market decline – valuation. After a decade-long bull run, valuations of growth stocks in particular expanded to frothy levels. I have included an extra line in the table which is the fall from last year’s high and this shows AIM and Nasdaq having been hardest hit. As usually happens, the leaders of the expired bull market fall furthest and many of the highest-rated growth stocks in these indices have fallen 40% and more. At some stage there will be a great buying opportunity in those stocks where genuine growth is driving the story.

This valuation re-set is caused by rising inflation and bond yields. Yields are still much too low if inflation persists and
settles above central bank targets on a longer-term view. 10 year gilts yield just 1.8%, yet the Gilt All Stocks index has
returned -9.4% this year. The bear market in bonds might only be in its early stages therefore. That will provide an ongoing valuation headwind for equities and suggests we should continue to focus on the more modestly-rated stocks.

Bonds would normally outperform into a slowdown or recession, but they are in the process of deflating a valuation bubble. Some equity indices have already fallen by an amount similar to the 1990 and 1994 bear markets which were caused by recession and rising interest rates respectively; but we know there is a real risk of deteriorating newsflow ahead of us. Which leaves us with cash on a big negative yield or gold and commodity-related investments
as a form of protection.

Having some cash and commodity exposure makes sense for now. It would also be wrong to abandon equities completely (focus on modest p/e’s and look for yield), given the falls already seen and the possibility that things might not turn out to be as bad as we fear."""

The table won't copy and paste well and keep its formatting, but it shows both AIM and Nasdaq down by about 17% each, year to date. Article from Growth Company Investor.

Closed here for Bank Holiday.

OK, not always, zero is as low as it can go, but that's not going to happen

In an alternative reality, I once thought that about interest rates! In fact, some where a long time ago in a distant galaxy, I use to think that about 5% was the floor to base rates - about 2.5% for average inflation and 2.5% for real growth in GDP, to keep it all in balance. Why not fix rates, permanently, at 5% and let the economy naturally fluctuate and self re-balance to equilibrium? A low interest rate (below 5%) disrespects the reverence and sanctity of money, leading to recklessness and dystopia. Seems I knew more at university than I do now!

We are looking at a very difficult period ahead, economy wise and especially for our sp. I do not feel a lucky punk buying more here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtHz2B-GpfI

I keep getting an annoying ad on Yahoo Finance for garden planters, in the shape of Dogs. For reference, I clicked it -
https://www.usnewfashion.com/collections/dog-planter

Now I maybe being very dumb here, but is an ad algo bot picking up Gdog's username? Any one else getting the same ad?

Gdog - seems the news that US economy fell in Q1 is over shadowing the good numbers. SORT appears to be doing very well. Peri may pick up some market share, but a recession is now all but certain. Expect more policy errors, this time the other way, in raising rates too far, too quickly. Following a housing Covid boom, people with new mortgages are maxed out. A decline in house prices will only make it all worse. High prices should be a natural demand suppressant, without rate rises, plus inflation seems to be supply side based, so interest rates will have limited effect? It's all getting horrible, but interest rates is all they know!

Lunch time reading of PR
https://wp-cdn.perion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/28105441/PERI_Q1_2022_PR-final1.pdf

Forward guidance implies revenue of $505m for rest of the year, verses $390m last - 30% growth. A bold assessment, given macro issues, big interest rate rises to come, inflation in food and energy. At some point, advertising budgets will be cut? The market is factoring this in, however, the market thinks TTD will be immune? Valuations are an inconsistent mess, and it's impossible to believe what any commentators say, as they all say something different.

AT - a very stressful hold for me personally. Know exactly where you are coming from with that, and I suspect we all feel this privately. Given Tosca have increased by over 1m and the buyback is going great guns, and the sp is static, other holders are selling out. It's unnerving really, as if there is something obvious the market can see, but I (we) can't.

TTD seems secure on the demand side, but TRMR, PERI, PUBM, MGNI all arguably lowly valued (but higher than us). Magnite also has a sizeable buyback in place and is falling. Good Q1 results and a confident outlook for Q2 and the year should stop the rot, but in this market perhaps not !! ??

Re Perk etc - the last CC indicated these were legacy businesses, with all growth potential and management focus on the main video / CTV income streams. I think they expected a flat performance this year, but some analysts are saying a small decline?

TD - see my 11.04.22 post

https://www.tremorinternational.com/our-brands/

Some reports of Centrica bidding for Bulb
https://www.ft.com/content/52e78b91-ffca-4d22-bfbd-48c34af829c3

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10748837/British-Gas-owner-Centrica-running-buy-parts-Bulb-Energy.html

SP180 - re Green, I assume you are referencing this -
https://investors.thetradedesk.com/static-files/37678b29-39c4-4992-b61c-1889df7e479b

He gets 16m shares based on prices up to $340. He has to pay $68.29 for them. So if he gets them all and the sp is $340 in 10 years, it's about $270 profit per share - 4,320 million ie 4.32 billion. Tremor does use comparisons to other similar companies to set exec pay. We are one year in, of the three years of grants given re the Nasdaq listing (which has done wonders for our sp). We are now at the end of the three years of grants given on the merger with R1. Andy Brough is not a fan of the remuneration package here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDs-LzmYGTg (at 25:22 and 37:44) Schroders may be the one of the big three which voted against it.

SP180 - thanks for the timed video links, saved me watching all through.

They seem to be saying they will use third parties, rather than building their own SSP gateway. Gives a little bit of a long term 'feel' as to how the ad tec / CTV market may play out. If it goes fully programmatic, they will have to use the open internet, rather than creating walled gardens (more of a direct marketing approach).

I'd say you are right, fdh. Pendal, also known as J O Hambro further down the RNS. They had 12 million shares back in January (I copied the list of major holdings to this board back then for future reference - good to look back). They have steadily reduced - must be a few more institutions on board now, but with less than 3%, but a very good sign that the share register is growing, new institutions want in.
https://www.equalsplc.com/content/investors/shareholder-information

Pembar Limited 24,986,833 13.87%
Crystal Amber Fund Limited 18 ,020,000 10.01%
Schroders Funds 10,549,500 5.86%
Threadneedle Asset Management 9,017,652 5.00%
Jo Hambro Capital Management 8,650,000 4.80%
Stephen Heath 8,648,341 4.80%
Hargreaves Lansdown 7,589,414 4.22%
Christian Levett 7,069,344 3.93%
Totals 94,531,084 52.50%

Netflix
"The streaming giant is also considering creating a low-cost subscription service supported by advertising - a change it has long resisted."

Mind you, I guess consider doesn't necessarily mean will.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/password-sharing-could-end-as-netflix-sees-fall-in-subscribers/ar-AAWpJHy?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=bf99baeb367a4e40bf6df4afdf2486a1

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX?p=NFLX

Exactly SS. All the tipsters seem to be on it now, and all consistently saying that forecasts are conservative - probably waiting for the interims to see how much revenue is growing verses the promised 2 - 3 million increases in costs. We suspect forecasts will be beaten, but can't say by how much. I think Solutions is a hidden gem, they seem coy in fully explaining it - I reckon it could grow a million a quarter in revenue this year, so a good £5 - 6m a quarter by year end.

CA reduced again, as IST indicated in one of the interviews - they would be selling to other institutions as demand from new institutions grows. It's probably a mix of PIs and institutions on board now moving the sp on - though perhaps a little too illiquid for some PIs. Definitely very little downside risk (maybe the odd dip down, but nothing permanent).

Paul Hill and David Thornton (Growth Company Investor) at it again here -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taTjzngiX-4 - 15:12 in

For clarity, the IC link allows full free access to the 24 page report. I have now also read through this. It takes detail from the company's own presentations, some material copied from Paul Hill and also the broker's forecasts. Very nearly everything is already in the public domain - there appears to be no / little original contribution from the IC's writers.

The broker is only saying 54.4 and 64.6 million revenue for 2022 and 2023!!!!!!! They give an adjusted profit figure and eps, which looks like EBITDA to me, of 8.9 and 13.0 for 22 and 23. Expect these to be updated as the year unfolds, as they look far, far too low to me already (especially given their low revenue estimates).

On reflection of the above, I have relented -
https://pdfs.investorschronicle.co.uk/Simon_IC_Alpha_418919_April2022.pdf

Website changed yet again. Not a fan! Seems like a lack of identity, focus and purpose. Indecision.

Thought the use of Perk and Rhythm brand names were long since gone?
https://www.tremorinternational.com/our-brands/

New blog post - https://www.tremorinternational.com/tremor-internationals-chief-product-officer-karim-rayes-looks-to-the-past-and-predicts-a-bright-future/

https://www.tremorinternational.com/