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STOP PRESS - just looked in today. Thanks for the comments and post upticks. The video is there now on a page refresh so it must have been put back up! Enjoy if you missed it!

https://www.tremorinternational.com/blog/

Watched the video again. Must be the most informative and detailed explanation of what Tremor does in its entirety, succinctly delivered and a massive confidence booster in light of the share price. A clear forward vision from a company which knows its market. Having listened to various presentations and conferences of late from Magnite, Perion and Pubmatic, I would say that Tremor is the one most ahead of the curve in CTV, and by a wide margin.

One point to mention I have picked up from a number of these conferences is that at the moment about 80% of CTV is sold directly by media companies to advertisers, by their own sales force (called upfronts) and only 20% is sold programmatically. Hence, the press comments about CTV inventory being limited. The CTV market for Tremor will grow as this percentage split is set to reverse over the next 3 - 5 years - most will become programmatic. As well as the continued shift from linear to streaming. Hence, the growth profile for Tremor is much, much larger than I had previously realised. The blog video also alludes to significant international expansion in 2022, off the back of the Vidda deal and SpearAd acquisition.

I now feel I 'get' what I am invested in here, which to be fair I have been missing for the last 9 months or so - not helped by poor investor relations. I am aware that I will be not the only who thinks this way, including the analysts who cover the sector, given a lot of their questions at recent conferences. The market has doubts about the viability of business models in the sector, which is contributing to the share price slides. This blog video clears all my doubts.

I think it was the Dog who once posted that we may be invested in an absolute monster here - I now fully concur. 3, 4, 5 years out, this could be huge. As with all new technology and trends, the SP will be volatile along the way, as confidence and doubts ebb and flow, over perceptions of the future. 2022 should be another year of substantial growth for Tremor - lots to look forward to!

Tremor at it again - website changed again.

Blog and video here - https://www.tremorinternational.com/blog/

Well, they were arguably getting it cheap anyway. Perhaps they wanted in sooner, a month or so back, but CA held out for another 10p on the share price? Who knows? Perhaps we can expect something similar around the full year results.

But yes, good news for the company, current and new shareholders. We also now know CA's plan is to sell off Equals to other institutions, in blocks and at a negotiated, agreed price (rather than wait for a speculative takeover bid or try and sell to a 'trade buyer' - which I assume means somebody like a bank, fintec firm or other payments processor eg a large credit card company).

Looks like Schroders took about 2m shares, somebody else took 2m ish on the Thursday and Threadneedle took 9m on the Friday - total 13m ish sold by CA. I can guess at reconciling the numbers that way, but I can't reconcile / agree the dates given on the last two RNS's as the 13th (the volume that day was only 3m) as the big trades were mostly on the Friday.

All said and done, looking forwards, the CA stake is no longer a concern. Other institutions are keen to be in, CA is willing to sell, at an appropriate price! The trades on Friday were at 77p - so is that a floor to the share price? Some profit taking has set in this morning, bringing SP back below 80p. As ever, unpredictable day by day, but a no brainer quarter by quarter.

US markets closed today for Martin Luther King Day holiday.

Next closed for Washington's Birthday - Monday 21 February.

Approximately 6 weeks after each quarter end (give or take a week) ie Mid February.

I expect the sp will recover up to and following results (pending no bad news from the company, the sector or other macro issues!!!!!). With the whole sector sell off, the so called 'peers' are on 15 to 20 times 2021 EBITDA. TRMR is on 7 times, or 5 times excluding cash. Should comfortably get back to the £8 mark and I am optimistic for £12 come late Spring. Chart wise, the sp is levelling off, which is allowing the moving averages to drop and converge around the sp - early indicators that a change in the trend of momentum is on the cards 2 to 6 weeks hence (coincidently timed for the results). If this pans out, it would be a chartist's text book movement in the sp price!

No income tax, VAT, money back or guarantee. God bless hooky street.

Copied for reference back to, when required!

Major Shareholders
As at 13 January 2022, Directors & Major Shareholders (that hold greater than 3.0%) are set out below:

Name No. of Ordinary Shares held Percentage of issued share capital
Crystal Amber Fund Limited 36,920,000 20.59%
Pembar Limited 24,889,833 13.88%
Jo Hambro Capital Management 12,000,000 6.69%
Schroders Funds 10,549,500 5.88%
Stephen Heath 8,648,341 4.82%
Hargreaves Lansdown 7,589,414 4.23%
Christian Levett 7,069,344 3.93%
Totals 107,666,432 60.02%

And another 2m shares traded today, just before close. I guess the assumption is CA selling into the trading update news, finding some willing buyers amongst other institutions. I think these sort of trades are pre-arranged on the phone before they are put through the market. Clearly good news if institutions are now buying in / increasing, and they can negotiate a good price (for them) from CA. Looks very promising for the SP over the next week or so, it should at least hold at this level and may get bid up a bit, depending CA's agenda.

We can look forward to getting another decent uplift following the final results, as the real underlying profits become obvious, and if the growth trend is confirmed. Back to sleep for two months!

https://www.tremorvideo.com/company/press-releases/vidaa-selects-unruly-ssp-and-ad-server-for-ctv-and-native-display/

Says it all really. No wonder OD was in good spirits at the Needham conference.

Many thanks Sparkington - spot on. A good increase. The link below suggests he likes to buy an 'overhang'. ie Crystal Amber!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDs-LzmYGTg - 28.36 onwards, keep listening.

Many thanks Sparkington - spot on. A good increase. The link below suggests he likes to buy an 'overhang'. ie Crystal Amber!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDs-LzmYGTg

Obviously, SS - a poorly completed form. Though credit to them for putting it out so fast.

Also a quick reference here, re Equals and Crystal Amber, from Andy Brough
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDs-LzmYGTg

That's a badly drafted form. Schroders have been shareholders in Equals for a long time. They have increased I think. Not sure, may be a decrease - look back through all holding RNSs for the truth. Eg Paul Hill and Schroder's guy (Andy Brough) discuss Equals here - 33.50 in - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lNWu_DcFZk

IR website shows today's figures - damn, updated quick. But Schroders have been on the list for ages
https://www.equalsplc.com/content/investors/shareholder-information

If any one's got the time to look back to Schroder's previous holding to confirm, please could you post up their last holding RNS.

I did notice about 4 trades last night, about 1,000,000 in total reported late, after market close - probably Schroders related?

New broker target by Canaccord - 106p, up from 99p. Equals a £189m Mcap, so about EBITDA of £9.5m times 20. Seems in line with Paul Hill's thoughts and also a few others (eg Downing Asset Managers).

A number of tantalising lines in the video link below. "We have high expectations for that in 2022", refering to Solutions, Spend Platform is "beyond a rapid recovery", "we are adding a lot of clients", "The payback is in 2023 off much higher revenue figures" (referring to marketing spend in 2022), "I want to be cautiously optimistic ... we want to beat the numbers, not struggling to hit them." "We'll have more to say as the year progresses."

Overall, a comfortable and safe place to be invested in.

Paul Hill / Vox Markets all over this, quick off the mark
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHdsH2fdX6I
https://www.vox-markets.co.uk/articles/equals-group-report-strong-finish-to-fy-21-with-revenue-up-52-on-prior-year-0d43273/

Disappointed in there being no guide to EBITDA (previously they have done this). Revenue at the bottom of my guesstimated range, so I reckon EBITDA will be much closer to £6.5m than £8.5m (my previous range of forecasts). Should easily trade on 20 times EBITDA, so that's about Mcap of £130m perhaps £140m. ie about 75p to 80p.

Market has yet to react to the strong uptrend in revenue and that H1 EBITDA was only £1.5m. 2022 EBITDA should be at least £10m without any growth. I think I am being too impatient here in hoping for SP gains before the market is prepared to accept this.

Solutions continuing to grow strongly - another £400,000 in revenue in the last few weeks of December. It will only take a handful of new customers here to make a meaningful positive change.

Chart wise, a close above 70p would be welcome. A slightly unusual trading pattern so far - high volume but a flattish SP?
Very strong hold for me.

Needham replay is available, per link posted below. OD looked and sounded very relaxed and confident in general about the trends in ad tec which TRMR are very well positioned and structured to benefit from. Also, confident re the SpearAd and Vidda deals. Gave a very clear message that a buyback is on the cards, though no timing of its commencement given - watch their space! Got the impression that all is well trading wise, and that growth is continuing into Q1 2022 (he did not say this, it's just the 'vibe' I got from his body language and tone of voice).

Perion and Magnite to also present -
https://wp-cdn.perion.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/03111423/Perion-to-attend-the-Needham-Conference-final.pdf
https://investor.magnite.com/news-releases/news-release-details/magnite-present-needham-annual-growth-conference

Morbox, I am pretty much on the same page as you. I had a holding from the FairFx days, bought back in 2017 at the 70p ish mark, around October. Thought I had hit the jackpot a year later with 150p sp! Bought heavily at low to mid 20s in 2020 following Covid crash. That's my core holding which is long term, and potentially a very sizable sum of money - can see plenty of growth to come in profits plus a re rate. The shares bought in the last few months? I will probably sell say half of these on any decent spike and into good volume. I would want at least 90p, ideally 100p, so may have to wait until final results.

Keep an eye on Crystal Amber news - last time I looked they said they were in no rush to liquidate the holding and intimated to a 2 year time frame to divest. It's not in their shareholders' interests to let the holding go too cheaply.

Overall, very happy to hold, as there appears to be consistent growth now, quarter on quarter (not just year on year) which is a rare thing. I think we can take Q4 revenue, times by 4, as a minimum for 2022 revenues. And 45% to 50% of incremental revenue is dropping to EBITDA - It's a waiting game for the market to 'twig' this. It'll take the full year accounts for this, rather than just a TU. No doubt we'll all have something to say next week when we get the news - Tues, Wed, or Thurs?

Hi Morbox, I note we have been range trading at 60p to 70p for four months now. Also, did 40p to 50p for four months in April to July las year. On the balance of probabilities I am looking for a spike up to say 85p, may touch 90p next week, before a pull back to say the high 70s / low 80s, pending full results in about March sometime.

On this basis I have bought this morning. TU could drop any day next week.

We are on Nasdaq listing rules now. Therefore, nothing until 4th quarter / annual results - expected mid February. This will include a trading update / guidance on the first quarter of 2022. May be some rough guidance on the year as a whole, as a number of other companies on Nasdaq do (eg Perion, Pubmatic).

This from GCI - following last month's trading update. Nothing new, but confirms a buy at current price.
https://www.growthcompany.co.uk/

The shares have settled into a nice uptrend which has seen them double over the last year. This performance is underpinned by a year-end update confirming the company has “significantly exceeded expectations” for revenue and ebitda. CEO Ian Strafford-Taylor told us the company grew well in the first half but has seen a step change in the last six months. The Spend platform is growing at 20%, while the Solutions proposition is getting good traction, having delivered a new £3m revenue stream this year with £1.2m of this in the last nine weeks. Solutions provides corporates with their own IBAN for multi-currency payments and has introduced larger-scale clients to the group.

Looking at KPIs, Strafford-Taylor said the number of products per customer can be improved significantly, being much too close to one currently. There is a new head of sales and the plan is to push hard on new business by adding to the internal salesforce and building introducer relationships. While this will require some investment, the business is operationally geared with the products and platform in place. The latest period has been notable for an unusually large one-off transaction worth £1.5m in revenue. This was a lengthy project setting up FX trades in tricky jurisdictions with onerous compliance requirements, which illustrates the capabilities Equals has developed. Good value on a prospective p/e of 18x.