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Equals Group: Canaccord reiterates buy with a target price of 54p (from 41p)

As far as I can make out, this is a 1 yr target, based on conservative forecast turnover of £33m - forecasts and target will be revised as the year unfolds, with further news, trading updates and 1/2 year results.

Mudis - Re cash. I am looking at slides 14 & 15 of the presentation. Cash at bank is £10m. But Net cash is £8.8m (the 10, add 0.8 'float' less 2 Covid loan. Slide 16 shows net cash Q1 of £9m, which includes 0.8 float. On this basis, getting my head round it, cash is up 0.2m in the quarter. - makes better sense now.
Cheers.

Co ck up - £140m M cap. - still 78p per share.

Thankyou to deepjoy for posting the Paul Hill Video.

Results were no surprise - in line with what we were told in January.

Q1 was above the management's expectations at £8m revenue. I was secretly hoping for nearer to £9m, so a little disappointed. Also, I was hoping for an EBITDA figure for the quarter. Cash in Q1 appears to have dropped from £10m to £9m from end of Dec. to end of Mar. But I am unsure if these cash figures are comparable (The £10m includes £2m Covid loan, not sure if the £9m does, so basically not clear whether cash is up or down in Q1 by £1m).

Company not giving any any guidance on turnover for the year - not surprising really. But IST did say he would be 'disappointed' if they did not exceed Paul Hill's forecasts. I agree, in that Mr Hill's forecast of £33 / £34m should be broken comfortably - 8m times 4 is £32m. I think full year will be at least £36m.

All in all, my opinion, we should be on target for an EBITDA of £7m mark. I do not agree with valuing this company as a multiple of turnover. As a multiple of EBITDA, I would say around 20 times is fair given its a small micro cap. Works out at £120m market value - about 78p per share. (Paul Hill was saying 80p per share, but a different valuation method and on a lower EBITDA).

A very tight hold, with negligible downside risk. The chart is looking 'textbook' for a period of a long, though slow, upward trend over the coming 12 months. Hopefully, more of the PI press will pick up on EQLS and recommend it (Small Company Share Watch, Growth Company investor etc).

Steve17 - a pleasure to make your acquaintance. In the last update they seemed to say that December was up by £1m more than expected. If this trend has continued into 2021 for three months, the news could be very, very good. I am with you on expectation.

If we are wrong - we are both suffering from a bad case of 'confirmation bias'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxDDrEA497E

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4418009-magnite-still-too-richly-valued-for-this-highly-competitive-sector

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417531-cord-cutting-will-continue-to-drive-magnite-stock-higher-in-2021

Seeking Alpha, to me, looks like a Motley Fool type of website - in that articles are provided by freelance writers. Hence, articles of opposite points of view can appear within days of each other. As always, at the end of the day you have to make your own decisions. On the plus side, once Nasdaq listed, TRMR will get coverage in the US financial market press. As things stand, investors over there don't know we're here (Gdog excepted).

TATT - sorry to hear of your delayed Bed & Isa trade. I am expecting the 2020 results web presentation, together with a Q1 report with actual figures to be issued ... imminently. I hope your trade goes through beforehand.

A nice quiet day in the elastic.
Did a Bed and ISA trade earlier for 2,000 shares at 717.414 and 718.99. The spread at the time was 4p, so the broker did me ok I think. And only one commission, but at the higher telephone trade price. Last year it was for 10,000 shares at below 200p. Next year I think I will struggle to do it for even 1,000 shares!

Latest broker note now available - issued today. Access from Yu's website
https://www.yugroupplc.com/analyst-research/

Re movement / trend in SP - Likely to be further downwards before it finds a support level. I am waiting before I invest more. Expecting a profit this year, but eps could be any thing - 15p ish??? so very difficult to put a value on this, or to gauge what PER the market will place it on. But, with certainty, the old days of this going to a PER of 60 (where it was at 1200p ps) are totally gone. More likely a PER of 20 to 30 times, depending on bottom line growth. The broker is not expecting profit until 2022 - 13p eps. (They got it wrong last year, I suspect they will be wrong for 2021)

Being cautious - eps 15p, PER of 20 = 300p per share value. Given risks - certainly want entry price below 250p. Playing hard ball, below 200p. Long term holders who were in at less than 100p should not have any long term worries. SP bound to be very volatile given low free float. SP is spiked at every update and traders milk it!

Don't know why it didn't like the link - it's vox markets dot co dot uk

Going to be a good week here - feel it in my bones. A very good insight into this company's earnings potential going forwards in this link. I fully concur. Listen from 26.10 in
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/totally-plc-paul-hill-on-stocks-to-follow-and-russ-mould-on-the-markets-vs-the-economy-5894f3a/

Had a small holding in the old FairFX from about 65p ish in 2017. (A painful fall from high of around 150p.) In heavily at various buys in the 22 - 26p range last year. Having re-looked at the numbers since my last post here, I have significantly upped my medium term expectations of where this company is going.
See company website - this year's trading updates all planned out, with a Capital Markets Day W/c 03.05.21. Shows company is very confident of this year's prospects. A major inflexion point has passed and chart about to break out big time - SP to kick up with all moving averages in 'the right order' below it.
https://www.equalsplc.com/content/investors/important-dates

JP - That's not surprising, and even at the new higher SP. Refer my previous posts, still adding here at 700p plus.

Basically, the shares were already previously undervalued. The SP has risen somewhat. BUT with trading updates, the value of the company has also risen, and risen by much more than the SP has. In other words, the company is now even more undervalued than it was 3 to 4 months ago! The Buffet margin of safety between value and SP is increasing! Bonkers!

Shame SCSW couldn't have waited a week - we are all queuing on here to ring our brokers to Bed & ISA next week. That tip'll put the shares north of £8.00 in no time.

FireAnt - looks like your first post, and a very good one at that. You have the makings of a fine investor, though you may already be one of course.

SW - a very safe stock here. It's not one that I will look in on very often, or post on. It's like DGE or RB or Anglo America. The companies do what I expect of them, the SP follows, there's no real surprises, and nothing worthy of comment to post. It's fast paced, changing AIM stocks that I follow or am in, that I watch like a hawk. Like you, it's an age thing. More and more of the money is going in the safer stocks. (May start using investment trusts) In these stocks I target 15%pa growth, and get it. If you do the maths, it's a doubling of the money every 5 years. Sit on this for 15 years, relax and enjoy retirement! LSEG, by definition, has been here since they invented the public trading of shares, and by definition, will be here for as long as share trading continues. It's recession proof, inflation proof, economic shock proof, it's the only company on the market you can say that about. Why invest IN the market, when you can actually buy THE market PLACE ? The market place will always make money, even if the traders don't. The more trades the better - ALGO trades are a god send here, for ever growing in volume, more dosh for the exchange.

Best to own the temple, rather than be the money changers in it (Easter spirit getting to me). A worry free investment here. Just ... just ... Roll With The Changes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBadNvkmjtY

Should be back to £80 plus in no time now - 30 times forward earnings. I will race the SP against TRMR (LSEG from 7000p and TRMR from 700P)!!!!! No prizes, just for fun!

Winstanley - you asked about Stevie Wonder - I've exchanged comments with him on another share. I can report that he is quite well. Like us all, he has his own investment style and personal objectives. He has sold out, having banked a very large gain. I think he feels safer having the big bucks in bigger companies. None of us have the money to buy into everything we'd like to, just a case of selling something to buy some thing else - not a case of game over for TRMR. He sends his regards to everybody still invested here.

SW - thanks for the reply. I think we look at the same fund managers (Keith Ashworth-Lord, Slater, Terry Smith, Nick Train). They all have a similar style, concentrated portfolios in very good companies. Terry Smith's mantra is only buy good companies, do not over pay and then do nothing. Trade as little as possible. I may start to buy their funds rather than invest for myself - I prefer investment trusts though, over open ended funds.

Re The Big T - one or two posters asked after your welfare, kindly of them. You won't mind if I report back? TRMR are set to report around $28m EBITDA for the 1st quarter alone, and the SP still not reacting accordingly! Ever passing that way again, give us a look in - your sensible input on the board is missed. Best of luck investing your profits.

TaTT - I wouldn't be able to do that! If I sold from my normal share dealing account, there would be a three days delay for the funds to clear into cash, before I could withdraw the cash to my bank account. (I could re-trade immediately in the SDA, without this wait, but if I wanted cash, I would have to wait.) Then there is a three day wait for funds to clear into my bank account. I could then transfer cash immediately into my ISA and trade from my ISA immediately. So, out of the market for 6 trading days!

To Bed & ISA, I ring the broker, and they kindly do a simultaneous trade with one market maker, normally on a very narrow spread (less than 1p) and only charge me one dealing commission. They do the transfer of funds between SDA and ISA - which I can't do myself online. I will do this asap in the new tax year. So, as others have said, a low SP is better so as to move more shares across. Fortunately, most of my holding was bought in the ISA - those shares can go as high as they wish to!

Sod's law, Rusty. I added yesterday at just over 700p, having sold out of something else.

Still to come - results webcast as promised. I also expect a final Q1 update after 31.03.21 with actual figures rather than estimates, plus news of the cash balance which they normally tell us. Like buses, it'll all come in one go. Looking forward to commentary on how the business will be developed over the next 12 months and some comment on the US listing in the webcast.

Wanted a stake in this for years, but always thought too over-valued. Watched as SP rose and rose and became even more over-valued. Taken a good look at the numbers after this fall. The share is a favourite of the Buffetology Fund and also Nick Train (Finsbury Growth & Income), both good long term managers, relative low risk funds but with above average returns. They run concentrated portfolios.

Results / forecasts per my research are – 2020 207p, 2021 275p, and 2020 317p. 30 times earnings is steep, 30 times forward earnings is very steep. LSEs long term average PE ratio is around 30ish, so I reckon the current price is as good as it will get to buy in. Institutions who have bought into the secondary placing, obviously, were also demanding this sort of price to get in at. The SP fall is simply a text book correction of an over-valuation. Buying now, you / I should get 10-15% pa, with relatively little risk.

Listen to Nick Train here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JefyfGO2Nk&t=395s

SW – you’re missed on the Big T board. I assume you’ve sold out?

Results date announced 08.04.21. This appears very positive to me. Previous results were 29th June (late due to Covid checks by auditors last year) and then 26th April 2019. Looks like better accounting systems in place to get figures out quicker, and without any lingering audit issues to resolve. Also, getting an Q1 trading update. Bodes well that company is getting into good shape, with good reporting systems in place and is keen to get good news into the market to correct what is likely to be a significant undervaluation in the share price. Looking for SP to double over the next 12 months and to be back over the £1 mark within 2 years. Expecting to hear of decent top line growth going forwards.

SP up by 2p already today. Yes, to some extent I am reading stuff into this, but the market seems to agree!

SP180 - many thanks for your comments re my last post. Grateful for your input and interesting reading in your links. An example of a BB working at its best - pooling of shared knowledge.
Share price beginning to fly - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2f1MtXQovU
and keep sharing nicely now!