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Brent Futures dipping below $22 - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cmjpj223708t/oil

Spot per oilprice.com $26 ish, but been close to $25. How good is the futures market at predicting the spot?

Fascinating how different sources seem to be giving different prices!

Strategists at Rabobank will be closely monitoring Saudi crude oil production and exports as the April deadline for the huge supply increase is approaching. WTI trades at $22.068.

Key quotes
“We expect the oil market to remain under pressure in most scenarios given the historic demand destruction taking place, however, we also expect supply-side developments will have a meaningful impact on the price formation in the weeks ahead.”

“Our base case is for the price war to end in the not too distant future given the political pressure that is building on Saudi Arabia and the poor optics of destabilizing markets during a period of global pandemic.”

“If the price war persists though, then the price outlook is far worse and all bets are off as to how low crude oil can go.”

Dear Colleagues and Partners,

The global spread of the coronavirus continues to cause significant uncertainty and disruption across our industry and our lives.

I hope that you, your colleagues, your friends, and your family are safe and well. Our thoughts go out to those directly affected by the continued spread of COVID-19.

I wanted to send a quick note to all our publishers, clients, and partners about what you can expect from RhythmOne over the coming weeks as we adapt to this rapidly-evolving situation.

First, we do not anticipate the spread of the virus will have any impact on the campaigns or services run through and delivered by RhythmOne. We also expect that the high-quality products and services you have come to expect and trust from RhythmOne will not be affected by COVID-19 in the coming weeks.

Of course, please reach out to your account manager if you have any concerns — and please do not be surprised if your RhythmOne contact calls you from their home. That’s because RhythmOne (a Tremor International company) has taken the decision to have all our team members work remotely for the foreseeable future for their own safety and well-being. This means that you can expect a lot of the upcoming meetings you may have with the RhythmOne team members to be done using video conference calls.

This is something we have planned for — and again, we do not expect this will have any impact on the excellent quality of service and support you have come to expect from our team members. Rest assured, even though our staff have changed their work locations, it is business as usual.

Again, if you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact your RhythmOne account manager.

Stay well and take good care of yourself and those around you.

Sincerely,
Ofer Druker
CEO

Same message is on Tremor & Unrulely sites.

Also of note - Company reports a 200% increases in the use of connected TV since March 1st (which is likely to be still increasing) - https://www.tremorvideo.com/expertise/thought-leadership/supporting-your-video-strategies-during-these-uncertain-times/

We'll have to see what is said with the results, but if what is already on their website is confirmed, it looks like the company is not going to lose revenues or profits through the virus crisis, probably the reverse. The fact that the company has not postponed the results is indicative that Covid19 is not affecting the company's finances.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Sees-Oil-Market-Balance-In-2021.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-It-Still-Possible-To-Rebalance-The-Oil-Market.html

Looks like all major oil producing countries are talking due to massive loss in demand through world wide lockdowns. There is simply nobody to take the oil however low the price. Expect some sort of short term agreement to cut significant production, including USA shale (best to keep some of it or risk losing all of it). All countries agree on the need for cooperation - if an oil deal does come, it'll be a milestone in history. Either way, gonna be a significant move in the SP next week.

Many conflicting news reports / comments being made. Oil was not discussed at G20 per here
"Crude was also hit by Saudi Arabia’s decision not to include any discussion or support measures for oil on the G20 virtual meeting it hosted on Thursday. The exclusion indicated that the kingdom’s production-and-price war with Russia would continue at the detriment of U.S. shale drillers, despite Washington’s plea this week for a ceasefire and return to production cuts." https://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-tumbles-as-us-stimulus-ignores-trump-plan-to-top-up-oil-reserves-2082932

Still a waiting game / gamble on the oil price. Oil refineries shutting down in lockdowns simply cannot take in oil deliveries. Depends on oil storage capacities to take all this oil. If bought by oil traders, they will then release this oil back on the market later in year - keeping oil prices low for many months. No wonder oil companies have slashed spending and dividends. Expect a long long wait for SP recovery and volatility in the meantime. I think the market expects smaller oil companies to go bust - which will take out some excess capacity. April will see continued turmoil in oil markets, which in itself may force SA / Russia into drastic action - ie big cuts to balance the oil market through the virus crisis.

RRE should survive and when normality returns SP will be back into the £20s. A short term traders dream, LTHs opportunity to buy on the dips (or suffer agony depending on your temperament).

Likewise Dana. Got 2,000 for 618. My last lot after 3,000 yesterday. If the sp falls in half from here, I can live with the paper losses on that 5,000. As all longer term holders though, wish I had sold out at 1800 plus.

My previous post haunts me (03.02.20) - "I have a list of stock market adages, cribbed from a book or an article I once read. One of them is - if the share price does not do what you expect it to, get out. (The reasoning being that the market knows something that you do not know, ie you have missed some info. in the public domain, or you have mis-analysed / mis-interpreted something or are just being naïve or unduly hopeful.)" The SP was 1820! It would have been three times the number of shares for the same money! That's the sanity / insanity of markets and investors. I thought the cash balance would have supported the SP. Not sure who is sane / insane here - me or the market. Not that it matters now - any sp in the £20 - £30 range going forwards will be a reasonable profit for me and a humbled one at that.

Share price now settling at 620 ish. News next week in the results and expect some development in the oil war discussions.

The volatility in share prices both through the day and one day to the next is amazing. Wish I had the skills to time these trades to my advantage! Looks like a lot of short term trades bought yesterday at 500 or less have cashed out on the opening spike already for £1 to £1.50 profit.

It's all about the oil war here, more so than the virus. If Russia wants to hurt US shale, even a price in the low 40's would be low enough to cause shale problems. It's SA that has turned on Russia to bring oil way down, in order to 'hurt' Russia. Ironically, SA wants oil at more then $50, but Russia wouldn't agree to production cuts. Basically, three big players in the market, all wanting different prices, for different strategies and long term outcomes.

Any mathematicians or social scientists out there with a decent working knowledge of "Game Theory" - text book games being played here.

Oil price - just shows what is dictating the share price here. Today's oil price movements and the company's share price tracked one another all day. They are inextricably linked at the moment and makes easy money for traders and auto-bots.

I picked up 3,000 shares today at almost 500p on the nose. My target is to double my original holding. And at nearly a 20% dividend yield.

The public's use of all online news and media sites & TV news bulletins has rocketed due to the need to keep up with events and seek out all opinions as to how things will pan out and how long restrictions on society will last.

Online advertising on such sites is the last business category that I would expect to lose significant revenue through the virus crisis - just my opinion, and prone to be proved as wrong as the next guy. But, TRMR has no debt repayments and a large cash pile. This is not a company that is in danger of folding due to Coronavirus. Expect a very strong recovery in the share price if the company confirms these expectations.

Today's rise should not be taken lightly. I am buying here.

ps so very, very glad I filtered the troll here. He was doing my head in, as that's what trolls do - aka a narcissistic psychopath. Beware of "gaslighting".

Couple of news discussion videos - below $50 is trouble for many producers. SA apparently has single digit costs. However, it needs $82 to balance its budget! (Russia needs $42 to balance). The situation cannot possibly go on for 'long'. I reckon four to six weeks and oil prices will be 'normal' given virus issues - $35 to $50. Price wars are economic suicide for all sides.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhBVonKiiis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9uc7NssUn8

Bargain? Probably yes. As I said before, best to wait until the trend has definitely turned. You can rarely get in at the very bottom, but this time it may well just be.

AdamH - about on the right lines, towards the worse end of people's expectations (hopes?). Yes, as I and others have stated, the 2019 loss will be as you surmise.

Expectations for 2020 vary. I am now looking for a slightly better turnover than I previously envisaged and a slightly better gross margin, meaning I did previously expect another loss (say £2m - £3m), but now am gunning for breakeven ish (£1m loss to £1m profit). For 2021 the company will be in new premises, so have significantly more overheads, but turnover is looking to be very strong (more than £150m) and gross margins should be 12 - 14%. This should give eps north of 20, and on a PER of 20, a share price of 400p. When the market is more confident of this, the price will start to move. I consider it worth the wait and worth the weight (in gold?) And as we all know on here the share price rockets on opening as and when good news comes - you need to be in well before.

I am currently down (as mot are) on purchases of 132 and 119 but a very willing buyer at this price (funds permitting).

Per Rusty Bucket
"Which is why he is filtered by me and also some of the people who regularly debate, to keep him in the spotlight.

There is no doubt there is a plan and an agenda. I do not want to hear any of it. I hope he / or she is well paid for their endeavours."

My patience has expired also. Can't stand to hear any more of the repetitive twitter twaddle. Filtered. I am also considering filtering those who respond to his every post, which only encourages him to reply back 'in kind'.

Very positive news about being included in the Aim 100 - can only bring TRMR to the attention of more investors, which in turn can only mean that a fairer price will be attached, by the market, to the company's stock (be this up or down).

Share Talk - link previously posted at the time by the website, but came across it whilst looking at Warpaint. Tremor is about 5 mins in - a smooth and fuss free chart, apparently! The chart guy can see a rising channel to 260p. Some traders use charts, to others, well it's just tea-leaves and voodoo magic.

https://www.share-talk.com/share-talk-bulletin-board-heroes-thursday-16th-january-2019/

From John Rosier’s Private Investor’s Diary in the Investors’ Chronicle today:

“The main positive contributors to performance in January were Tremor International (TRMR), the company formerly known as Taptica International. It gained 26 per cent following a trading update on 6 January, which showed strong cash flow and net cash of $75m on 31 December. On the same day, it announced the purchase of Unruly from News Corp (US:NWSA) in exchange for News Corp taking a 6.9 per cent stake in Tremor. Rebekah Brooks, chief executive of News UK, also joined the board of Tremor. Unruly is a global, brand-safe video platform and under the terms of the agreement Tremor has agreed to advertising spend of £30m over the next three years on more than 50 News Corp titles in the UK, US and Australia. It looks a good fit and should allow Tremor to benefit from Unruly’s relationships with tier 1 brands such as P&G, Unilever, Nestle and AMEX.”

He has also added significantly to his holding in TRMR, previously 2.1% of the portfolio to now 5.4%, which is his second biggest holding behind RRE, which is at 9.4%. He is in favour of another share buy back too.

“I reduced my risk rating on Tremor International from high to medium feeling that financial risk was negligible given it had $75m of net cash and was generating money. I already had a high reward rating based on its very low valuation of only around 4.5 times earnings and cash flow. Medium risk/high reward points to a 5.0 per cent weighting for me. I got there through two trades: 10 January at 155.75p and 29 January at 201.25p. Last year the company bought back shares; I would urge them to do so again as at this rating it is difficult to think of anything else that would be more value-enhancing.”

SNN

JS - it's only a bad ambition if it doesn't work out - see Purple Bricks disaster in Australia and the USA. Fortunately, the economics of a payments business are much, much better.

I will add this - as a UK revenue based payments business, revenue of £30m is actually quite substantial. Any success in Europe or the USA would be a massive game changer.

I agree this is way oversold - but that's markets. I am patiently watching this, with the intention to invest significantly more - the timing will depend on newsflow, the share price, and the rest of my portfolio (I will have to sell something to add here, which is always a difficult decision). It's a falling knife job. It's pointless buying until the SP settles. You can never time the bottom, but trends always go on for longer and further than is rational or what one expects. If you are wanting to buy more, wait until the SP has definitely turned
.

Professional PR machine called in to spread the word. Serious attempts at damage limitation in play here.

I find myself having to change my mind on this one - never a good sign, at least not in the short term.

The company's plans are beginning to sound very, very, very ambitious, ie expansion into Europe, Ireland and the USA. Such plans come with a wealth warning. Not one to add to or buy into until the SP stabilises, the chart is saying it's a screaming sell and many people trade off charts which become self fulfilling. It'll be the interim results for 2020 before any definite concrete numbers on the positive side can be released. Plenty of time, therefore, to sit and watch from the sidelines. Though I'm still a holder here (having reduced by 1/3), I find myself wishing the SP to go a low as possible over the next few months - so that if I do significantly increase my investment here, it will be at a 'very good' price!

"There's some unhappy people out there." No need to worry IST - if the real profits come through the SP will recover. But the market will require accounts, rather than your say so of profit expectations. The accounts should also disclose an adjusted eps figure - oddly missing, leaving me to calculate my own. Causes suspicion in itself.

Georgey - I guess that depends on what exactly they add to production and when in the year they come on stream. I would assume that say if they add 10% to production (and with a constant oil price), profits would be up by more than 10%, on the basis that admin overheads would increase less. I think the rough range for 2020 covers it for that year.

Note - these are just my expectations based on rough and ready calculations. I revise my thinking / change my mind / get egg on my face just as often as the next man!

Rockrose is a popular share. Its's commented on on FB & Twitter, been tipped in The Mail / This is Money, Investor's Chronicle and Growth Company Investor like it, Malcy's Blog is a fan etc etc. It's a share every body knows about - the rational conclusion has be, that for now, it is fairly priced!

Correction to earlier post - eps for H1 2019 were 124 cents per accounts.

Two nice O trades taking advantage of the auto bots - 10,000 and 5,000 bought at 15.01 and 15.26 (1836p & 1830p) - the way to do it!

We seem to be back to being stuck in a fairly tight trading range. As the share price is not moving to where I expected to be, in the expected time period, this is forcing me to re-evaluate my take on reality. The market is more likely to be correct than I am.

I have a list of stock market adages, cribbed from a book or an article I once read. One of them is - if the share price does not do what you expect it to, get out. (The reasoning being that the market knows something that you do not know, ie you have missed some info. in the public domain, or you have mis-analysed / mis-interpreted something or are just being naïve or unduly hopeful.)

I have come to form new expectations thus - eps for 2019 will be about 650p - 700p (Roughly 150p for H1 and 500 - 550p for H2, which includes Marathon). The market seems to be pricing theses sort of oil companies on about 3 times earnings, so 2100p per share for now is tops. Eps for 2020 is expected to be 1000 - 1200p. The market will need definite accounts to confirm this. I thus expect a share price in the £30 to £36 range by about results time in 2021.

I am staying invested - this is more than a 50% return in a little over 12 months. I also expect the dividend to be increased, roughly in line with the share price, so that the yield is approximately 5%.

Any deals will also add to value. The general point is, I am no longer expecting a decent short term rise in the share price. The downside is limited to the bottom of the trading range, which I deem irrelevant to a share I intend to hold for a good few years.