Member Info for ShareNicelyNow

Resistance at £2.00?
Nice round figures the traders work to - "I'll sell at 200p" etc

Having said that, £2.00 ish was the price following the resignation of Mr Tal in December last year, so it is a significant marker in the share price recovery. Also, the 200 day moving average is a touch below 200p now, with a large gap down to the 20 and 50 day moving averages. Hence, it could be 10 to 20 trading days or so before the share price closes above 200p, and consistently stays there. (Not a prediction, just an observation, just a could be.)

£3.00 is then my next 'target' for the share price to reach, being the approximate price before Tal's departure. After that, clear blue sky, I would say, though perhaps a target of 450p, being the fund raising price in early 2018.

As far as I am aware, the company is still on track for adjusted eps of 44c ish, ie. about 30p ish. Surely we can get a PER of 15? (450p share price) Then on to 2020, with full merger benefits!

Regards to all LTHs, SNN

August's GCI (Growth Company Investor) gives Tremor a mention. David Thornton comments in the GCI Portfolio section, "Elsewhere Tremor had a 22% bounce from distressed levels and still looks anomalously cheap. "

What a word "anomalously"!

OLD free article on the merger here, from GCI - https://www.growthcompany.co.uk/gci-digest-march-2019-taptica-2593626/

Please enjoy, with best wishes.

Bonkers day, but not complaining. Still sat on an unrealised loss overall. Originally bought into TAP at £3.85 ish Sept 2017 and doubled the holding at various prices on the way down, mainly at £1.80 - £2.00. And that's the stock market - knowing whether a stock falls for valid reasons on fundamentals or falls for reasons "without merit" and therefore knowing whether to sell out, hold or buy more (funds permitting). All decent LTHs on here seem to have the same mindset.

Perhaps the penny has dropped with other investors! And if each time the penny drops the SP is up 30 pennies, all well and good!

Feeling very confident about the outlook here on a 2-3 time horizon. A successful video ad business is the prize, with eps clearing the 100p mark and a PER north of 15 (I try not to think of the TradeDesk PER).

Any body know the full details of the 10% rule? Some thing like if the share price moves by more than 10% in a day, then the company is obliged to issue an RNS - to say why or to say it has no info as to why? eg. take over rumour, large contract win etc?

A tweak of my previous post on the old ffx board:

Nice update, as previously guided. Good first half - may lead to earnings upgrade later in year, despite the Brexit headwinds still in force. Should also mean continued further strong growth into 2020 as the cost streamlining comes through and hopefully a successful venture in the USA. Operational leverage superb.

This is one of the few shares you can buy and hold without worry. No need to frequently check in on the share price, or for that matter, look at the message boards! More than happy to hold till this time next year - would be expecting a SP comfortably at 150p by the year end and 200p by the end of 2020. Once Brexit clears, the shares may re-rate upwards again, which would add 30-50% on to those price targets.

I have just re-watched the Proactive video from March - a good useful reminder to the company's plans and interesting comments at the end regarding the market's valuation of the business - be patient and the market will catch up.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/12486/fairfx-ceo-ian-strafford-taylor-updates-on-supply-chain-streamlining-12486.html

Trading update?

Today!!!!

Calling Taptica, calling Taptica. Come in please. Is any body there?

Mind you, I think I will just chill and enjoy the silence. Not sure what / where from these other posts are.

Calling Taptica, calling Taptica. Come in please. Is any body there?

Mind you, I think I will just chill and enjoy the silence. Not sure what / where from these other posts are.

Investor's Chronicle news update today --

StatPro (SOG) – a provider of cloud-based portfolio analytics and asset-pricing services for asset management companies – has announced a strategic partnership with J.P. Morgan (US: JPM). This partnership, which has an initial term of five years, will see J.P. Morgan’s data and analytics business and StatPro develop risk and performance attribution capabilities for portfolio managers through J.P. Morgan’s data and analytics platform. Shares in StatPro were up by around 5 per cent this morning. Buy.

Well, this should put some 'fly' in the ointment!!!

Finally, Statpro is getting the due recognition for its cloud analytics platform. With a few more big names on board (and I am sure they will be coming over the next couple of years or so) the future of this company and its investors looks very promising. The work the company has put into the development of this platform over the last 10 years is going to be almost impossible for anyone else to replicate any time soon. It is not a case of first mover advantage, more 'only mover' advantage. And all the while its current customers are adding additional portfolios to the system quietly in the background. Turnover should now start to grow organically, noticeably, and with rising net profit margins as development expenditure flattens off or declines slightly.

As pointed out below, the JPM partnership "will be a significant contributor to our growth in the years to come." - you don't say!

Admittedly, the company has perhaps a little too much debt for comfort (though the facility is for even more - £49m), but the lenders must be comfortable with future anticipated profit growth. How high this profit growth is and at what pace, only time will tell.

I am looking for a PER of 20 (previously the company traded on 30, for a good number of years, but has since been derated, maybe because of the debt, maybe because of slow progress in the cloud platform bearing fruit). This year's EPS should be 8.5 to 9p I think are forecast. So, say 180p per share by Jan - Mar next year. Could be looking at 11p to 12p EPS for 2020.

For an AIM company, this is very low risk, and a very strong buy for any serious long term investor.

Is this fair market cap? Er no, but this is the stock market!

Assume all convertibles convert, ie they are equity by another name. Therefore, there are approx. 10B shares in issue (seems to be the growing consensus on here, and makes quick maths easy). Capital just raised (shares and convertibles) going on for 1B - that's 10p per share just for the capital raise. Value of the mine build so far to date, plus all the planning, the marketing, the crop trials, the accumulated knowledge and expertise built up in the company, the finance staff, engineers and scientists in the company? Your guess! I'm going for say 2B.

Total value then 3B - at 1B shares, that's 30p per share. NOW.

3B free cash flow is still forecast for 2034 (a long way off, I know) but that's dividends of 30p per share. I was always in for the dividends and the story has not changed for LTHs. Todays SP is not relevant, unless you have funds to invest, or are a forced / panic seller. I am still more than comfortable buying more up to say the high 20s.

These who were hired last worked only one hour,’ they said, ‘and you have made them equal to us who have borne the burden of the work and the heat of the day.’ “But he answered one of them, ‘I am not being unfair to you, friend. Didn’t you agree to work for a denarius? Take your pay and go. I want to give the one who was hired last the same as I gave you. Don’t I have the right to do what I want with my own money? Or are you envious because I am generous?’

“So the last will be first, and the first will be last.” Matthew 20, 1-16 !!!!!

Re-posted from 22/04/19

The tour cycle race passes right past the mine site - Stage 3, Saturday 3rd May. Bound to be picked up by helicopter film footage / commentary on TV. All good publicity! Let's hope the contractors are still on site with funding to finish the mine!

I've decided to chill as well.

SP seems to be settling at just over 18p. - it's a reverses book build (ie bids go in at 18p first, then drop if all shares are not taken) This indicates to me that the book has probably closed already at 18p with all shares taken / over-subscribed.

The project is de-risked. The biggest chill out. The risk of not being funded has been removed. Imagine the dilution if there was no debt finance at all, and it all had to go to equity at an enormous discount! Basically wipe out. De-risked is what it says on the tin - a much lower expected return, but a safer and more certain return. (Yes, there will be construction problems, who knows, some cost over run, but in percentage terms, small.) De-risked also implies a less volatile share price, so the traders will start to disappear.

The project is still worth the same, but with going on twice the number of shares. So, I was hoping for a share price of 200p - 400p ten years out and a 5% dividend yield on that price. Half of that or less is now likely. From todays share price, that is still a way above average return. If the share price puts on 10p per year from here, I'll still be making more per year than I've ever had in my life from the day job.

My unrealised loss will reverse out, come in to decent profit, and should give the family a base level of comfort and security, permanently. In conclusion, I'm chilled, and to be honest, grateful.

Looking for a share price of 30p - 35p in twelve months time, and without any worry.

Nice results, as previously guided in January. Very good start to first quarter may lead to earnings upgrades as the year progresses, despite the Brexit headwinds still in force. Should also mean continued further strong growth into 2020 as the cost streamlining comes through and hopefully a successful venture in the USA. Operational leverage superb.

This is one of the few shares you can buy and hold without worry. No need to frequently check in on the share price, or for that matter, look at the message boards! More than happy to hold till this time next year - would be expecting a SP comfortably at 150p in 12 months and 200p in 24 months. Once Brexit clears, the shares may re-rate upwards again, which would add 30-50% on to those price targets.

I have just re-watched the Proactive video from March - a good useful reminder to the company's plans and interesting comments at the end regarding the market's valuation of the business - be patient and the market will catch up.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/12486/fairfx-ceo-ian-strafford-taylor-updates-on-supply-chain-streamlining-12486.html

I suggest caution buying at this price. TEP has always traded on a PER of about 20. Occasionally dropping to 15 when market conditions are against it, occasionally shooting up to 30 on an exceptional outlook (but never lasting). The guidance suggests adjusted eps of 57-59p for 2019 and 63-66p for 2020. Over the next six months the share price is likely to drop back below 1300 and may touch close to 1200. 1750p is a very naïve expectation.

The tour cycle race passes right past the mine site - Stage 3, Saturday 3rd May. Bound to be picked up by helicopter film footage / commentary on TV. All good publicity! Let's hope the contractors are still on site with funding to finish the mine!