Member Info for ShareNicelyNow

He's no choice - it's automatically done for him.

9.46 trade – 5,000 sale at 500p on the nose. Looks to me like this is someone’s stop loss that has been deliberately taken out. I can confirm via conversations with market makers that this happens – they want your shares and can and do move the price to take out stops on the cheap.

A stop order is a sell order, in this case at 500p, which goes on to the order book, which is available information to brokers etc, who subscribe to more in depth market trading information. A SELL order below the current market price stands out like a sore thumb. Orders on the book below the current price are buy orders – limit orders, the maximum price someone is willing to pay and will not execute unless the price falls. A sell order on the book, at below market price therefore is obviously some numpty’s stop loss.

(Vice versa for orders above the market price – they are sell orders which will not execute unless the price increases. Any buy orders are obviously trader’s orders. Trading shares with auto trades is very dangerous – you know the stats – more than 90% of people who try it lose money.)

I can’t believe there are still people who don’t know this. Do not use stops / trailing stops. If you must, keep it in your head and not online with your share trading account / or use share price alerts. Your stop losses are public information!

The clever one's are now buying at 500p a share. Maybe hope that the company's broker will get in today yet!

Being Lazy. Last 10 days closing prices in reverse order (uncrossing trade)
504, 482, 460, 466, 465, 465, 457, 458, 435, 375 _ what a difference 2 weeks makes
Average of last 5 days = 475.4. Add 5% = 499.17 = max. company can pay today. We're out!

Well done to the company (its broker) - it got in almost first thing yesterday to buy 20,600 at 485p. Anyone keeping a spreadsheet on the buy back and calculating the max price the company can pay? If price keeps rising, it'll get locked out of being able to buy. Sad face emoji.

I want a rising price but not so fast as to prevent buy back!! Cake and eat it too job!

Winstanley - hold. You will get a multiple of 500p per share.

SW77 has well over 100,000 shares - he is clearly wealthy and successful, quotes Buffet etc. OK I know Buffet makes mistakes, as do I. But what matters is Return on Capital Employed and cash generation. This company is at the top of the list on both counts (and is why I did not sell out, having first bought Taptica at around 385 - the underlaying numbers in the accounts remained compelling). I was buying heavily at between 100 and 200p and have bought again since the last trading update in early January - 465ish - the highest I have paid for this share.

If you don't need the cash, hold. Or if you want to treat yourself, sell only part of your holding - say 500, but keep the bulk of it.

PS. Don't take advice from bulletin boards, but sleep on it. It's not a decision to rush (unless you are wanting to buy!)

The market has frozen – there are next to no trades, meaning there is no stock available. (8.40am to about 9.50am). Anyone wanting to sell is wanting a higher price, but those on the sidelines wanting to buy want the current price 485 ish or less. (They can’t as there are no sellers) Relative large buy of 10,000 at 490 8.37am (3p above the top of the spread at 487) has cleaned up the earlier sales in the day – must know what he’s doing to pay over the spread! (Wasn't me, though I wish)

The only way the market will unfreeze is for the buyers to cave in and be willing to pay a higher price to unblock the sellers holding out for more. This SP is only going one way. May not be today, or tomorrow, but a very serious rise is imminent.

For those who don't know, David Thornton is a well respected market stalwart, has edited Growth Company Investor for a good number of years and in fact now owns the publication. He originally covered and recommended Taptica and held through the share price slide and the company's transformation from mobile performance to digital video advertising, adding in the 130s during 2020. I have been a subscriber to Growth Company Investor for going on ten years.

He is worth a look / listening to in general. Tremor is discussed in this video and is the first company talked about, from about 3 mins in.

https://www.piworld.co.uk/2020/12/29/piworld-2020-round-up-interview-david-thornton/

Enjoy!

Operational gearing.

Lets say turnover (sales) in H1 of $150m, and only $2m profit. H2, $250m turnover and $62m profit. Hence, the extra $100m in sales creates $60m extra in profit. In other words, for every 1% more in turnover, profit goes up by a bigger percentage, and an increasing percentage as scale grows. You can see this at The TradeDesk.

Hence, should turnover be up 50% in 2021, profits will be up by a lot, lot more in percentage terms – twice, two and a half, three times! Brokers do expect Tremor to invest in their systems in 2021, so some cost increases expected. The company has also mooted expansion of CTV into Europe – will come at a short term cost. Tremor has around 100 staff in its R&D technical dept. working on this sort of stuff. It’s all about scale / land grab, not just for Tremor but Roku, Amazon et al. It's all to play for / all to lose - glass half empty / half full?

XKong - Sensible figures. I reckon on $150m EBITDA will be the 'floor', could be approaching $200m in normal market. You will get your £12 per share once interims are out in Sept / Oct this year. In fact more like two to three times that, should we get this sort of growth.

Current cash is low. The sales for the fourth quarter will still be in debtors, hence, at next trading update cash will be up very, very significantly.

T Dicky has joined sst1 in the filter bin!

Looks like EBITDA will be similar to 2019. As the old mobile ad side of the business has mostly fallen away and nearly all of the 2020 profit has come in H2, the underlaying growth in video is very, very masked. The market has not even begun to wake up on this business. Cash balances say it all.

I roughly calculate eps in pence of about 30p this year (really only half a year due to first 6 months of Covid). Now growth is clearly apparent, the PER will adjust properly. £12 by the summer is well achievable. If international investors pick up on it and compare it to US peers, we may be looking, in time, at 3, 4,5 times this. (Assuming we are not taken out on the cheap)

Still too many people covering the same old ground / misconceptions / deliberate negative slants / new investors / regular posters getting annoyed by the same old questions etc, etc -

"The Group’s post-tax decommissioning provisions are $592.1 million (pre-tax $1,095.3 million). The pre-tax provision increased by $725.5 million during 2019. The movement is explained by an increase of $805.5 million, resulting from the Marathon UK Acquisition and the Group assuming the decommissioning liabilities for the Brae and Foinaven assets, and the unwinding of the discount of $18.4 million (included within Finance Costs). This was partially offset by a reduction in estimates of $86.0 million (resulting principally from delaying cessation of production (COP) at Brae Alpha and East Brae, and changes to cost and economic assumptions), $9.4 million of decommissioning carried out in the year, and foreign exchange differences of $3.0 million."

See company accounts - balance sheet. Gross liability is in provisions, more detail in note 14. The tax benefit is in deferred tax assets, more detail in note 6.3. What really matters is that this is a provision and the estimate changes every year. The change in the estimate is passed through the profit and loss account. As the estimate has been reduced and also pushed further out, a large credit is in profit - this is not cash and is not real. Bottom line profits as stated are much higher than they really are. This is removed from adjusted EBTIDA - the 76,360. This is one of my mistakes in investing here, I have significantly overestimated the company's profits and therefore over estimated the company's true worth (because decommissioning costs were reduced).

On the plus side, nice to see Brent recovering to just over $20, and therefore the company's share price holding up today. I suspect a lot of the oil price movements are traders, speculators and short sellers (of oil), manipulating the price for short term fear and gain. Hence, the last few days oil price volatility has not been reflected in the equities market of oil companies.

I think the markets will begin to settle shortly, as the OPEC cuts come in and Shale will reduce very quickly, not being able to meet debt repayments.

Just picked up this from the FT - https://www.ft.com/content/d0a0cfc3-765c-4b55-ada7-11e0d378d406

I reckon us on here know squat shot about oil trading. Sounds like oil traders are manipulating the market to their advantage and making a killing by rolling futures contracts on month by month. WTI May future price $17.53 but for June it's $25.53. Looks like the effect of the oil deal will take 4 - 6 weeks to show in the oil price. By then lockdowns may have started to lift also, which will bounce oil upwards.

Just a simple case of holding on, and buy on any significant dips (and sell the spikes!).

I know that the IC is not everybody's cup of tea, but here's John Rosier's portfolio comments from today, just for reference - doesn't really add anything to what most on here are already aware of -

"The worst performer was RockRose Energy (RRE). Embarrassingly, I have made a round trip in this stock. Down 56 per cent in March, it has given back all the gains since I bought a year ago. An oil price below $30 a barrel, if persistent, would cause it problems. The risk is that it would not generate enough cash to make further investment in maximising production worthwhile. It would also be likely to bring forward the date of decommissioning, and again there would be a risk of a cash shortfall to meet these liabilities. Having failed to cut on the way down, I decided to stick with it. Why? While oil in the $20s a barrel would be harmful to RockRose, it would also be unsustainable for Saudi Arabia, Russia or US shale producers. Eventually, an agreement will have to be reached, and as I write, one has been. If the agreed production cuts prove insufficient, I am sure OPEC+ will return to the table. In the meantime, RockRose has no debt and cash resources which it is guarding. Capital expenditure in 2020 will be cut, and in the short term it has hedges in place protecting its income at these lower prices. It ended March at 618p a share. It’s pleasing to see it has bounced back to 965p. My main mistake here was my Risk rating of Low. It should have been at least Medium, which, somewhat after the horse has bolted, I have moved to."

Having to pay 811p to buy.

800p resistance should be gone by close, hopefully.

Losses in perspective - company does about 8 million barrels a year. Say Brent below $30 for six months, say averaging $25, that's about a $5 loss per barrel = $20m for six months. But only 60% oil, so a loss of $12m. Gas still profitable, so unlikely to be draining the cash pile, unless worse is to come. Share price will track the oil price, understandably. But for now it appears the company and the cash are safe. Capex will depend on decisions of RREs partners in its operations.

Doesn't help!
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Falls-As-Saudi-Arabia-Launches-New-Price-War-With-Record-Discounts.html

They've cut production, but fighting to sell as much as they can, at whatever price it takes.

Still a little unclear about what's been agreed, but expect it will become clear next week. Some doubts about Mexico, doubts about how the US can formally agree any cuts (let alone Mexico's), as their policy is to let the free market decide. The formal release from OPEC - https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/5882.htm - sounds very sensible, that they mean business and know what they are doing. Unlikely that the deal will fail because of Mexico - their share is a drop in the ocean (obviously not literally).

Various oil commentators say the Covid-19 lockdown measures are cutting oil demand by 20 to 30 mbd, for each month these measures continue for. Doing some basic maths, the deal through to April 2022, adding up 10, plus 10, 6 lots of 8 and 16 lots of 6 gives me 164 mbd. Given lockdowns expected to be 2 to 3 months, with then some time for things to pick back up, it seems to me they are planning to rebalance the market over a two year period. Using a combination of production cuts and oil storage facilities over this two year period the market will in essence be balanced. We may see more normalised oil prices sooner than we think, though it will at least take the lifting of lockdown measures. In the short term, say the next 4 months, as uncertainty remains over Corvid-19, oil prices will remain below normal. I am in no position to guess where, so all I can offer is a range of $30 to $50. The price will probably settle in the low thirties and gradually rise as the virus passes and restrictions lifted. Could be back to $60 by end of year.

All in all, very pleased with the deal and the tone of meaningful and well intended co-operation between oil producing nations, for all parties mutual benefit. Hoping for no further downside risk our share price from here.

Beware of just another spike in this long drawn out saga. Trump just shooting his mouth off about the ideal outcome, before anybody has even started discussions - oil parties have just agreed to start discussions. Realistically, SA will demand the economically unviable producers will have to cut more (UAS), there will be a short term stalemate until reality hits home - a 20 - 25m barrels a day demand drop for at least the next 2 months. Trump may add import tariffs, reduce sanctions on Russia etc, etc, much for them all to discuss, negotiate. Difficult to predict how long this will take, or whether talks will fail if any side is not prepared to give up what the others want. Oil could drop or rise by $10 in a flash as news breaks one way or another. Feels like Russian Roulette to me!

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/What-Really-Caused-Oil-To-Rally-By-25.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/02/oil-price-rebounds-on-hopes-saudi-arabia-and-russia-will-reach-
deal

Eventually, something will be sorted, with all sides having to give up more than they would wish. Any effect on North Sea producers? Well … … …

Alternative view - Trump would not have said this if this outcome was not basically in the bag! Brent rising strongly as I post and so RRE share price. Agreement expected after Monday's talks?

Do you feel lucky punk? I'm sat on my position here and not 'gambling' any more, not trying to trade it. Having said that, if talks stall and share price drops back into the 500's, I deem it worth the risk to stuff more in here! Not prepared to either sell or add at this price - mid to high 700's, too easily go either way by £2 - £3 a share.

Amortisation to add back 20m - sorry for missing figure.

Looks like a few new posters on the board - a very welcome change, thankyou people.

Figures bang in line with expectations. Forecasts were before tax profit of $52m, before tax eps of 42c and $60m EBITDA. Actual are profit $50m, adjusted eps of 45c, EBITDA $60m.

Figures based on – Profit of 3.2m, add depreciation of fixed assets of 2.7m (note – do not add back depn of leases, this is really a rent payment), amortisation of acquired intangibles (what would have been previously part of goodwill, which ironically is now not amortised), share based payments of 15.8 and one-off costs of 8.3 – profit before tax of $50m.

Average number of shares was 111m, so 45c or about 36p eps. However, putting in a normal tax charge takes these down to 36c and 29p.

Having re-read my posts of 24/09/19 and 17/01/20, I was reckoning on eps of 29p ish. Obviously, I’m not a financial genius, but what it proves is that Tremor has a stable and predictable business model, which is the sort of company you want to be invested in – no nasty surprises. The only surprise here is the share price!

2020 has started well, and CTV revenues look good, $18m in Q4, so at least $80 for the full year (pre Covid 19). International expansion, further synergies from R1 still to come through of around $10m, a very modest share buy back etc. Without Covid 19 it’s any body’s guess where the sp would now be heading to. It’s uncertain how long lockdowns will continue for but if profits overall for the year come in flattish, I will see that as a good result.

Eps of 29p, in a growth segment, way undervalued, even with Covid 19 effect. SP of 180p to 240p ‘feels’ about right all things considered, until the virus fog clears. Afterwards looking for 450p to 550p (as previous broker targets).