Member Info for ShareNicelyNow

I see administration and the mine will not be built.

Equity is not possible - too many shares needed. It needs £4bn to be invested and may be worth £10bn in 7 years time. This is not a viable rate of return to equity investors, for this amount of money, over this time frame and risk. A strategic partner is equity by another name, so the same applies. GK once said it's bonds or bust. Sadly, we have our answer.

I sold out at an average of about 5p, and boy it could have been so much lower! I am surprised by the naivety of PI's who are still holding, who just don't get what today's news means. Remember Gina has security on the mine. I can't see her wanting it - she'll have to fund all the rest herself and as above, equity by another name. No way will this be built.

I am emotionally, spiritually devastated. I am a fair and honest man and it is just not fair that this happened on every body who has put so much work in to this project over so many years. What a great mine it was looking to become. And the news about being so far ahead with the TBM - all top notch, ultra hi tec engineering. So much work, by so many people all gone to waste. It's all heart breakingly sad for everybody's dreams, everybody's hopes. What is this world?

It depends on the size of your holding, I guess. If you have say 300 - 500 thousand shares (some on here do) can you afford to lose another £20,000, having lost well over £50,000? Sorry, you have to accept reality - it really is over.

I'm going to bed for what will be a totally sleepless night, thinking of everybody's pain and loss. Devastatingly sad day.

I once read it's never a good idea to buy into a falling trend, but to wait until it has turned upwards. You will inevitably miss the bottom and the lowest price you could in theory have got the shares for, with hindsight. However, buying now is better than buying in the 1200 - 1300 price range of last month, almost £1.00 cheaper per share.

I think this is as good as it's going to get to invest (more) here. If the interims are on track, SP will be back well towards 1300 for the calendar year end. (Though pending no change in government ….. !)

SNN

If it doesn't go the company's way / our way, then there is something seriously wrong with economic theories regarding the efficient allocation of capital, to available projects requiring finance.

Sadly, theory and reality don't always match! Sorry, I can't be any more help, as none of us can be, other than remaining positive and helping each other to keep our spirits up.

SNN

Bonds'll come good.

Sirius, get your name in lights - Reo having fun with this R&R standard -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGe1JdVunmo&list=RDeGe1JdVunmo&start_radio=1

SNN

Well it's been four months since I last posted here and as expected the share price is below the £13 mark and nicely now touching close to 1200p - so it's in the buy price range. If 2020 comes in in line with forecasts (eps 64 - 67 ish) we can expect a share price a little over 1300p in say 6 to 10 months time, plus a decent dividend (57p ?) so about a 15% return in a year or so. As an investment, 15% is a superb return and TEP should be low risk. The share price is still trending downwards, but 1200 should be strong resistance (20 times historic eps, and a psychologically round number). I'm curious to see if it will hold!

I'm looking to add to my holding (been a SH here for about 11 years) before the trading update due in October. The only cloud below the horizon is political and the possible risk of renationalisation of the utilities!

SNN

Useful links there, smalltimeii - much appreciated.
SNN

GK, Hi there.

"Probably that JPM hold on to what they cannot pass on."

That's a given, so long as it's a sensible percentage. 10%? 15%? Pushing their luck at 20%. I read somewhere that JPM's fee is 161m for the whole stage 2 package. That's a lot of the bond spent already!

Remember that originally they were saying they needed offtakes of 7m/ty to get stage 2 lenders on board. They have nearly twice that and almost the full 13m/ty first stage mine build. There's no risk that the cash flows are not going to come in once in production. The last video was very determinedly talking of getting the build ahead of schedule - bringing forward revenues on first poly4, which will significantly transform the finances through 2021 - 2024. All this is positive and reduces risk from a bondholder's point of view - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFUxrtiirZs

(considering there are 85,000 private investors, that video has less than 3,500 views, and 4 of them are mine.)

We just need stable market conditions. Good things tend to get born in stables.

Regards for now. SNN

GK, Hi

The source of the word 'reissue' has been pointed out to you by others - local Whitby and Scarborough papers.

re your 11.56 post, " With that FMU the 'issued' bond, being only paperwork, just gets binned."

Well yes, exactly. But the point is, the bond process is very far advanced, with buyers lined up. The company and JPM are not going to launch the issue unless they are confident it will succeed. This has been in planning a long time. They will not leave anything to chance, except what they cannot control !!!!! (Cough, cough.)

There are perhaps two fears in play -
a) the bonds failed due to lack of backing, and not because of market conditions. I do not see it this way.
b) the bonds failed due to market conditions, and market conditions will be the same in September, so the bonds will fail again. If so, they will wait until the market is stable, and if necessary get an extension to the original deadlines in the prospectus.

I'm just not worrying anymore. And if you're out on the moors at night, Mr Holmes, beware of the hound. The hound Mr Holmes. The hound. (or in the case of this board, the trolls). It doesn't matter what the share price is, in this share, for the daily trading games to persist - it never stops. It's up and down 1 - 2 pence throughout every day. I'm exhausted watching it and exhausted waiting for final news on stage 2 financing, as we all must be.

All I have is my own gut feeling, my own deep conviction, that all will be well.

Kind regards, SNN

The source of the word 'reissue' has been pointed out to you by others.

They have actually used the word 'reissue'. My guess is that they got as far as 'issuing' the bonds to JPM, who are acting as an initial purchaser, who then sell on to the agreed buyers.

It was widely reported that the coupon was 13.5%. This will have been set as a process of negotiation with the intended purchasers. It was all on for the week that was (not). Now 13.5% of 500m is 67.5m in interest. If bond yields went up to 14.5% overnight, then the market value on the 500m drops to 465.5m, meaning JPM are sat on a loss of 35m and can't complete the transfer over to the actual buyers.

I think it's that simple and in essence the bonds are all sold. They just need 2 to 3 days of a stable market to get it through. I am as certain as I can be, 99%. It'll be like the 'firm' placing of the equity, all agreed in advance of any rns announcement to us.

SNN

I think some will close and some won't. Some will think that the bonds will fail regardless of recent market upset.

This does not mean to say that they will be right - it's their gamble, just as it's ours and the company's that they will sell. At the end of the day it's down to feeling, personal opinion. There are many other market experts that say the bonds should all go.

SNN

Turnaround - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VKEkEK5Z5w

I've designed a plan! We're not leaving anything to chance …. what is essential is invisible to the eye.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEPqgSNLfK8

SNN

Finally a statement from the company to reassure investors to local press

https://www.whitbygazette.co.uk/business/sirius-minerals-reassures-investors-after-share-value-drops-1-9932081

Interim Report published today on Statpro's website (RNS 31.07.19)

Interims a little lower than I expected - Revenue up £1m, expenses before amortisation down £1m, but amortisation costs (previously capitalised development costs) up by £2m. The result was adjusted profits of £2.655m against £2.367m and adjusted eps of 3.8p (3.3p 2018).

Some guidance on cost savings were stated - £1m to come from converting remaining Seven clients to Revolution, and £1.5m to come from the Delta / Revolution upgrade - due through 2020 and 2021. The JP Morgan tie up is expected to bring in revenues and profits likewise in 2020/21. Hence, 2020 should be a year to put this company on investors' maps with a significant increase in profits hitting the bottom line.

For 2019, adjusted eps is now looking more likely to come in at 8.0p ish! and I'm now reckoning on 10.5p for 2020.

SNN

Shedding no tears here about Uber - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49287489

Share price edging down into bargain price range, on relatively small volumes, therefore likely to be PIs / short term traders selling in response to the falling price, exacerbating the drop and encouraging others to sell as stop losses are hit. Simply a fact of modern communications and internet share trading - the result is increased volatility in share prices, and nothing for long term investors to be concerned about.

SNN

15 - wow.

I could have written your 21.01 post myself, but I was posting my own exact same views simultaneously!

Such reassurance is needed in times like this. Very appreciated.

SNN

Exactly - a bad week to be issuing a bond - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49268945

I think the company had no choice and will have been advised by JPM. There would have been a risk that not all bonds would have sold otherwise and the coupon would have been too high. There were earlier reports that the coupon could have come in below the 10-12% previously indicated - https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/224328/sirius-minerals---city-broker-reveals-how-and-why-debt-deal-could-help-unlock-significant-value-224328.html

Markets are markets and can change very, very quickly. You have to pay the market rate on the day of issue, not the market's rate two weeks ago (just like with share prices).

Video - CF pretty much confirms commitment of funds, 35s in - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFUxrtiirZs
There are definitely enough buyers for the bonds lined up. No way is this game over. Once the price settles / stops falling, this is a buying opportunity gifted on a plate.

SNN

LITC - good reasoned post (12.09) expressed in a way that non financially minded / educated people can understand. It is a long time since I was sat in finance lectures at university doing NPV and CAPM stuff and theses are difficult concepts to grasp and get one's head around.

You suggest 75p per share for 2024. I think at that stage the multiplier should be higher, because the EBITDA will not be flat going on into the future. As EBITDA is expected to increase significantly and sharply thereafter, a higher multiplier would be appropriate, just like PER's with high growth stocks.

My gut feeling is, that with finance completed, the company is worth £3 to £4 Billion now, and should increase in value by approx. £1B per year (minimum) for at least the next 12 years. In 2024, I reckon we should be worth around 90p per share. The stock market may beg to differ, but market price is not the same as intrinsic value (Warren Buffet always says something similar).

Below is a repost of mine back from 8th May -

"Assume all convertibles convert, ie they are equity by another name. Therefore, there are approx. 10B shares in issue (seems to be the growing consensus on here, and makes quick maths easy). Capital just raised (shares and convertibles) going on for 1B - that's 10p per share just for the capital raise. Value of the mine build so far to date, plus all the planning, the marketing, the crop trials, the accumulated knowledge and expertise built up in the company, the finance staff, engineers and scientists in the company? Your guess! I'm going for say 2B.

Total value then 3B - at 1B shares, that's 30p per share. NOW."

We seem to be in agreement with 30p now. I reckon on 40p for the year end. As for the market, it can go and do something appropriate to itself! It's all about the end game and that's 2030 for me.

Regards, SNN

Results for 2019 came in as I expected (eps of about 200p). I've now had a good read through the report and accounts and concluded these are a very firm hold, probably a buy at less than 5000p. Currently holding 2,000, having sold 500 at about £40 and another 500 at £45 ish on the way up.

The company is continuing to invest in growth, with its sights set on substantial opportunities in North America and Asia (Japan & China). If these markets do as well as the UK and Europe in proportions to their populations, then this company has a long, long way to go. On the three to five year horizon I can see £100 per share. Short term for 2020, I reckon revenues will be up by 20 to 40 million - you do the maths on the bottom line profits.

"Breaking records for three years in a row sets the bar higher and higher and so, to be realistic, I will continue to make no promises that we will continue to grow. That said, I do not see anything significant that will get in the way. " Kevin Rountree, CEO, GW Annual Report. Best take it from the horse's mouth.

SNN

From an earlier post - "Feeling very confident about the outlook here on a 2-3 year time horizon. A successful video ad business is the prize, with eps clearing the 100p mark and a PER north of 15 (I try not to think of the TradeDesk PER)."

That's £15.00 per share. Obviously what the shareholders would like, along with everybody else involved with the company, the staff, the directors etc etc. The company has operational leverage, whereby increases in revenue translate into bigger increases in percentage terms to profit (partly why TDD has such a high rating). Success usually breeds success. If it gets to £15.00, it'll get to £30.00.

Yes, it's still an if, but if you guys wait 2 to 3 years more, I'd like to think you will get more than your £10.00 back. Barkboo on ADVFN is also touting £30.00, and he's not joking! lol!

SNN

I have done a bed and ISA sale and repurchase earlier to today for 10,000 shares.

This was through Halifax Share Dealing. Very helpfully, this was done through the same market maker, simultaneously on the phone, with an agreed low spread of only 0.3p. The sell was at 193.0 and the buy at 193.3. Also, they charged me the telephone commission rate, but only on the sell. The buy was commission free. There is a 9 second gap showing on the time stamps on these trades on the LSE website. So, overall I 'lost' £25 in commission and only £30 on the spread between the sell and buy.

Market makers can be at times very fair and professional!

So, if you're doing a Bed and ISA, do it on the phone, and ask for a simultaneous trade, with negligible spread. A good few hundred pounds saved! And of course, future increases in Tremor's share price are now tax free (on this tranche of my shares at least!)

Regards, SNN