RE: US sanctions Russia’s Rosneft29 Jan 2022 18:13
Thanks Happy. Great post.
My thinking is the only sure winner from a conflict involving Russia and the west is China. Putin will know this. The other issue is although the people of Ukraine will suffer the most, Russian troops will die too as will Russian speaking Ukrainian folk. A legacy Putin will not wish for. He is 70 and his power will be on the decline, even if it remains very high still. All despots pass on or are disposed. A reassuring reality of life. Putin is no mug. He knows this and will want his legacy to remain the hard man who returned Russia to be a force and respect.
So for what its wither, my sense is there will be no war. Even if there were war, the 80% of BP that is not Russia dependent, will do rather well and overcome the any negative.
If war happens, Shell will do better than BP however I feel due to the limited exposure to Russia. It is the way the cards fall. BP have done very well with the income from Rosneft so risk of Russian politics is the downside that has to be accepted. I have maintained my entire holding in both at 50:50 and have no intention of changing this.
ATB.