Member Info for shakeypremis

Gizzy, SD is worth about US$12m after tax to SDX per year (@US$2.85/mcf - there will be additional liquid credits for condensate and also capital cost recovery so could be significantly higher in the first couple of years).

An MMCF in Morocco is worth about US$2.4m per year (@US$10.5/mcf) after the Moroccan government take 25%. No tax. This accounts for a $1/mcf cost.

Don't really know how much they are generating from the oil.

If we exclude the oil, SD at 50mmcf/d and Morocco at 9.5mmcf/d will bring in about US$35m profit. Very roughly.

https://invst.ly/9taxx

Maybe this will break from it once SDX transition to majority gas.

How dare you speak ill of our Lord Saviour. Beware the zealots.

Maybe the board have asked PW to reign it in a bit or perhaps this will be a case of under promise over deliver.

Yes, in oil equivalent terms (this is energy equivalence not price equivalence). This is an important distinction. The boe's from SD are not worth a barrel of oil each. They are worth significantly less. 4000 boe/d from SD do not bring in the same profit as 4000 bo/d. That said SD should initially add an extra $12m per year profit. It's still quite significant and the potential for much greater volumes being added at SD and being tied in cheaply is high.

To be honest, no I don't.

No one cares about SDX. Let's hope for a blockbuster result on South Ramadan, say it flows at 20,000bopd, SDX would get approximately 1,000 barrels entitlement production from it (with more initially due to cost recovery). But how likely is that? Additionally it won't be producing for some time I would imagine and there must be additional capital costs to get it producing too. What else is happening in the next 6 months that's going to move the needle here? Nothing really.

Less than £90,000 worth of shares traded.

That's not what I am talking about. Apologies if I have misunderstood your answer. I was merely speculating upon if the new exploration that will take place in H2 this year turns up some lower flow rate wells, say sub 20mmscf/d, whether the fact that the major capex is now out of the way would mean these would now be economic as PW had said in the past a certain flow rate in SD would not be economic. I can't remember what that rate was, but that was before the processing facility was completed. Basically what I am hoping is that exploration in SD will be even more likely to be successful as if smaller wells are discovered they can still be tied in, whereas previously they wouldn't have been economic to do so.

~$12m/year additional after tax profit here we come. Once the facility is completed and the pipelines are in place I wonder if it would make additional smaller discoveries viable? I remember PW saying before that discoveries under a certain size - something like 10mmscf/d (was it higher, I can't remember) - would not be economically viable. Given the major capex at SD (the central processing facility) is out of the way, perhaps smaller discoveries could now still be connected. This would make exploration at SD likely even more successful. I'd email the company but I know they wouldn't reply.

With three trades all day it's certainly not going to move the share price. Either PI's need to start buying here which doesn't seem likely given past performance or some new/existing institutions need to buy up more shares.

Just for reference, it's also mine.

Surely for this well to give much of an uplift to SDX's production levels it's going to have to flow around the 10,000bopd mark isn't it? SDX have a 12.75% working interest in the well and after the state take circa 50% of SDX's WI they are left with around 7% let's say which on 10,000bopd gross leaves SDX with an economic interest of circa 650bopd.

I would say increasing cash even after the continual capex SDX have to spend. Otherwise SDX are essentially burning money to make money. We need to to see excess cash coming in that they can't spend. That or a monster find somewhere. That said, with the central processing facility in SD, new discoveries should be tied in with only minimal extra cost (plus of course the drilling costs). That is my understanding at least.

Ramadan hasn't been flow tested yet. It's not a massively large section of pay is it (as oil wells go)? I don't think I've seen the width of the horizon(s) so maybe it's a very wide horizon (as in horizontally). Does anyone here have any knowledge on these types of wells?

"First production from the licence remains on track to commence towards the end of H1 2019". Sadly another slide on timescales it seems. First gas toward end of H1 which could well end up being H2. Sigh. At least they are getting on with it now.

Very nice news release, SD is going ahead!

Also, it's nice that South Ramadan hasn't turned out to be duster just yet. Just maybe there will be enough commercial oil there to make it worthwhile for Sdx to hold on to their equity stake. Let's see what happens today.

If it's not being slowed down by the Egyptian's work to bring in a new mining code perhaps SDX need to up the bribes!

I am long SDX, but Malbrad's point about reserves is not to simply dismissed. Obviously we've known about it for a long time. SDX do have quite short life wells and the SD wells aren't project to last much more than 5 years. They do need some extra discoveries in SD and Morocco. Which is what the drilling in 2019 is about. SD is very prospective so I don't doubt they'll find more gas and hopefully oil too.

Don't worry, the next news will be the South Ramadan duster news that's also gone way over budget :)