Member Info for shakeypremis

I think he/she fancies me. Obviously angry they can't have me.

I think they were initially targeting end of 2017 if my memory serves, they have definitely pushed this back more than once. The reason it has been pushed back this time is not a bad reason though - "higher level of condensates and liquids than expected" so central processing facility needs to be tweaked.

I am not finding it difficult to sit tight to be honest. It's just annoying. That said picking up more shares at these prices is not annoying.

You'd think so wouldn't you jag but we've that before and the market just doesn't care. In not sure they'll make quite as much next quarter of oil stays where it is though.

I might start to agree with you if SD gets pushed back again, further than 1H2019. But right now you can't say that. Things go wrong and plans change, I just wish PW wouldn't be quite so optimistic with timescales. Anyway, the silver lining regarding the SD delay is this;

"Whilst both SDX and its partner IPR have submitted the development lease application for South Disouq to the authorities, and have agreed to a gas price of US$2.85/mcf, the expected timing of obtaining final regulatory approvals and an update to the design of the central processing facility to accommodate the higher than expected levels of condensate and liquids in the gas, means that first production is now expected to commence in H1 2019."

Higher levels of condensate and liquids. How much higher I wonder? Higher than the circa 60 barrels of condensate per mmscf (I think it was 60 anyway) that was quoted some time ago? What's this about liquids too?

So when PW mentioned 5,800boe/d he was referring to Working Interest production. Knowing that it makes sense that actual entitlement production is only 4,150boe/d.

Sadly not;

" As a result of the ongoing development drilling and workover programme in North West Gemsa and Meseda, production has increased with actual entitlement production on November 23, for Egypt and Morocco amounting to 4,156 boe/d (Gross - 11,109 boe/d) split as follows;



o North West Gemsa 2,496 boe/d (Gross - 4,992 boe/d)

o Meseda 998 bbl/d (Gross - 5,234 bbl/d)

o Morocco 662 boe/d (Gross - 883 boe/d)"

Lol you can bet the currently rock bottom price will do nothing to stop this selling off. It's just what this stock does.

Seeing $2.85/mcf for SD gas was a small surprise but nothing major. Everything is going well for them medium term but to expect an end to the pain on these results is not really rational given how the market has treated this company on much more positive news.

I am very miffed about that 5800boe/d figure. What the hell was he talking about? ??

As expected SD gas is not coming online by year end and now not until h1 2019 and merrick guidance missed too. As I said before it doesn't really matter to the company and its prospects if these things are delayed by a few months but that's not the way the market will see it. Will some of you start to give me some credit now when I criticise PW's timescales? He has been saying in very recent presentations that the targets would be net but he would have known they wouldn't.

These are good results but underwhelming to be honest and where did PW get that 5800boe/d figure from? ?? It's nowhere to be seen in these results with entitlement production as of November 23 quoted at circa 4150boe/d. What was he talking about? I'd email them but they never reply.

From the OilVoice.com interview;

"We recently signed gas contracts with four new customers that are currently being connected..."

Is that new or has that been mentioned before in other interviews/presentations?

Let's just hope (and hope is really all we have) that this isn't yet another one of those false dawns we've seen about 90% of the time. To be honest it has been good to pick up some bargain stock here at these silly prices, but that of course comes with the assumption that at *SOME* point in the not too distant future this rerates significantly and sodding well stays there this time. £1 please. But I have to say I am not confident based on previous evidence.

No deals and no placings then. I for one am glad to be honest. I really don't want to be diluted at these prices.

Something happens. Nothing happens. Thinking about it, was that mini interview even come yesterday? Presumably it was done at the conference which was last week. If they have done a deal then they haven't told the market about it for over a week. Could he have been referencing the Circle deal? WhiLe he said two deals and technically the Circle deal was only one deal it did involve assets in two locations; Morocco and Egypt. No surprises why there has been no RNS in this case.

God knows what is going on here.

If they are this has definitely been manipulated down to suit the prospective financiers. Sigh. You just can't win.

I didn't hear anything about two deals. I am on the train though. What point in the video did he mention two deals?

5800boe/d according to PW latest interview.

At the moment they aren't really insulated very much as they only sell 6mmscf/d of gas in Morocco. Grant it's sold at US$10+ but it still isn't all that much and they only get 75% net.

I think if we are honest with ourselves we have to assume that SD isn't coming online by year-end and that Morocco isn't going to be producing at 8mmscf/d either given it's currently doing about 6mmscf/d. But if those targets are both delayed by say 3 months for example, does it really matter to SDX as a company? No, of course it doesn't. But the market will still hit this and more so than it might to other shares because this is SDX. That combined with the expensive failure that South Ramadan is likely to be might provide a huge buying opportunity, assuming of course the closing of this TSX gap hasn't marked the bottom. I get the feeling we are going lower personally. Somehow!

There's a gap on the TSX chart that just closed yesterday.

https://invst.ly/99pcd

Mayhaps this is more or less the bottom now?