Member Info for shakeypremis

The only good thing that's come of this whole TW/Mercuria debacle is that Mitch has lost his job and will hopefully lose most of the money he was just forced (yeah as if he bought those shares willingly) to part with to buy those shares recently. What an absolute sorry debacle. Yes the EPL would have decimated the company anyway, but that truly awful acquisition was the coup de gras.

Dennis, why would the NEDs buy shares when they know management will do things (like the TW acquisition) that are destructive to current holders. They just wont and they will know better than anybody what the company is going to do next.

They don't buy shares because they don't personally own any so there isn't really any personal benefit to do so. They'll only do this if it benefits them or they are somehow forced by Mercuria/another large holder or circumstance (perhaps juice the share price to ward off a takeover attempt??) . That's how this company is run - i.e. not for the benefit of the common shareholder because management don't own any shares and their interests aren't aligned. Plus it would push Mercuria over the threshold which they might not want to do.

Also made it through 2023 without another $h1t3 acquisition - because there was no acquisition at all... Can we see the same in 2024 or *perhaps* even a good acquisition...?

Come on Mitch, exonerate yourself with a barnstormer of a deal. Lol, just imagine if we get the dirty done on us again though...

Lol, it really needs to be an absolutely FANTASTIC acquisition after the last value destructive one. If they do the same or even mediocre again then all credibility of this company and management team will be gone forever. Of course they can do whatever they (and Mercuria want) because no one can now stop them.

Wasn't Mitch looking at getting in to the renewables industry potentially...

Why wouldn't 11kbopd hedged at $61/bbl limit your upside to oil prices exactly...?

Could that perhaps be due to the fact that Serica have 11,000bopd hedged at ~$61/bbl and are thus not as affected by moves in oil price as they otherwise would be... Wasn't the rational for the deal that it would diversify production and protect against downside in gas prices by giving exposure to oil price upside? Difficult when the oil trades for a fixed amount per barrel. So Serica is still really just exposed to the gas price, oh and also interest rates now too :) So far the deal isn't working out for shareholders. I think it will in time but big opportunity cost here so far. Although UK and the North Sea are a really bad place to be doing business and future uncertainty is huge.

If they want to no one can stop them now with Mercuria's huge swing vote. Whatever the board and Mercuria want to do will be done.

Also the TW directors were being paid over US$10m per year between them in as of year end 2021. Page 36 (39 of PDF). So Serica would have taken on that burden too.

I would guess you never looked at Companies House filings for Tailwind before or after the acquisition. If you look at the Group of Companies Accounts filing made up to December 2021 you'll see that the debt they held at that point was priced at LIBOR plus between 2.5-3.1%. So what is it now? Must be at least LIBOR which is currently 5.5%+, so 7-8%+?

That was another thing not disclosed by Serica as well as the hedging. You had to look through TW accounts in Companies House. So technically publicly available information but why wouldn't the company just put it in the circular if the deal was so good? You know the answer, because they wanted you to vote for it, that's it, and omitting certain pieces of very negative information such as the 11kbopd hedging and the debt interest rate would be obvious things to try to not be upfront about.

https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/document-api-images-live.ch.gov.uk/docs/EtUh60n4VVwlOPquJEQ8hK1Gpj6bP5BFNZTlyS3RpcM/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAWRGBDBV3MCOXEUAR%2F20230707%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20230707T143338Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEOX%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FwEaCWV1LXdlc3QtMiJHMEUCIC2SeRPnikphONcFMmtGh4B1KX80qSoi0TOrKY6dE0w0AiEAil6MRqbcucQFaHKo2p3OrELo%2BozG7SutOVrViQFlK0wquwUIXhAEGgw0NDkyMjkwMzI4MjIiDDEYBAeA4ocAk7rmRiqYBaqYh%2BEejP91GxbMN7pQBcH%2BBBkJX1iA0FSI4NJG4KZLTiVLkRHbsX69tJwlbfz5LPkGQW3fhHuRSjQ2D9p63GIUyATV9P%2BscANkKUAqWMoh0Z%2FSlsrLRxoFeyKiAckNkWuatfB%2FvM27hg7hYYRQWZGW%2B4RLsHuVFzRO7pCF2R9LK7UFoxciI4P5g5aUJ5ZPFyXMN%2FLZbVVNjGKTzm%2FtotIiv0oVK1I8POBvfypkkUh7eNIygWEIe5AznEPdodouRPAjai%2BVtrr8aPOMsO%2FbMvZTvSkM97oieTKPw6vvUiiE%2BjKTJsQGtbZmjNaX025VLF2iDuijL0gPHHCAaely91Yl4AgfrtXXV4eN%2BkrEzJlWNYFdPKuVB3XBThRi9FLEROOXm%2BumbE06dvut14yZYag3NbkLpeoqE9c5k1t1VBb0Kk3SJGSSYwEti10qDjQ%2FDW2YpI9DqdEYNs9RVCRd6onAgfD37f90lu58aSCISwix9y1ewtIgLbrNIY160B69C4YSrGpo40NJ2eNWbNQ9pCVYkkpuJlq88dyzq2flvCir%2Faza6MiPWdONLur4ajv7oFDKYg2WhnRonkNuMm8Um3V3OpeuCjzOAvJuf6psUmRzI7wOIoIPLAnEGJMzftIX6b49lAASDkbjJ0GCTh2M4G2BNHi3YXD7Zibxf0X2jABzjDkcvpX4KV3Z20PI2VCE1MA2bZguPhOaeofuHtBRgAsKl6upbp%2Bb264u548EdDrglz%2BCtHqmmiTe7HtQo5bWw7XYKGTpN5LDjZhYJWKrWhU2VSX%2FqkSkhL%2F0Xf%2Fn9jH7X%2BNU7stkglVuaegX6kcrfm%2FAEhmQEbdWdayMJeCDZ8h3aPIuldoh6CO2hdlDAOBWqD3u701VwvEw74%2BgpQY6sQEB3cQOxZM%2FLo1M5zdlHbEz%2FSeTKLWn65S2YuaVYutHSOcaJSGXzcJGf2xOdZaSbvv5ZkynJpgX7e6gurPNh5UoTYdezGxeLtOWAWy8v4Z6tKujeVkmGUJyzMu%2Ba%2FmBs2uuH15XmGoZb0JV%2F1apLzpXONQKY9QbUal7jqaS5HHpk5mEkun6to9DddMelWB7bhG8jh7DoEV9dDlmZYIvWSIru%2FDM3dqkODmw5jIRgTWuH1M%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22companies_house_document.pdf%22&X-Amz-Signature=6401353d37a2ce3405d92ba9218b9df3ad7a967de1967991dec9938438df2608

Page 46 (page 49 of the PDF

People across this board and Twitter keep referring to 50% market cap is cash, true, but NET CASH is about half of that due to the TW debt taken on. Debt taken on in the HIGHEST interest rate environment for over a decade.

Think you meant 'bagholders' didn't you Ronnie? I know that's what I am.

It's one of the more egregious things about the deal and the fact it wasn't disclosed in the circular is just completely underhand from the company. End of the year I think is when that rolls off.

$61/bbl equates to about 82p/therm on a BOE basis.

11kbopd are NOT exposed to the oil price because they are hedged at $61/bbl until next year. This WASN'T in the circular for obvious reasons.

Surprised, Serica have some £228m of debt (as of June 21st), the enterprise value is much higher than £366m. More like £580m.

Probably the drop is also due to x-dividend date.

Oh man, so the diversification that has saved the share price according to the company can't have done that because 100p/therm realised NBP equates to ~$73/boe. realised oil price so far of $64/bbl due to that awful TW hedge that wasn't disclosed in the circular (11kbopd @ $61/bbl).

This acquisition may prove beneficial (eventually) but so far it hasn't. Without the dilution and debt, I have no doubt the share price would be higher than today. If this turns around then that's great, but so far it hasn't.

Much of the drop today is probably due to NE being abandoned I imagine. Non-issue really and overdone but it will bring decom costs forward and impact the already poor (due to acquisition) net-cash position.