Member Info for shakeypremis

Could possibly be an operational issue too.

Meant to say, 'end up doing a good deal', not 'end up doing a BAD deal'. You know what I meant.

No one will get away with trying to buy Serica in this environment. There is too much uncertainty. You will be at the mercy of shareholders if you end up doing a bad deal buying out Serica and then the government changes the rules yet again making the terms of your previously good deal, bad. Maybe a private company could take Serica out or similar.

Initially this storage facility will be an additional source of demand (given it will need to be filled), not that has much capacity and initially will only be allowed to be filled to 25%.

In other news Sunak has further undermined UK energy security by banning fracking. Probably good news for North Sea gas prices though as no more onshore gas will be produced from fracking.

Probably will have to wait to see what Rishi does.

They don't need to justify it. They couldn't justify the first one if they had to be subjected to any kind of reasonable scrutiny. It's what the 'agenda' has set, and there is a very real risk it will get extended.

Despite the low valuation here, I think sentiment and uncertainty is such that there is unlikely to be significant buying. Possible GE and chance of Labour getting in at worst and at best we probably have Sunak (again) in No 10 and he may well extend the WFT.

Could be worries of a Labour government to be fair. Whether we get one in the next few weeks/months or we get one in a couple years, we are *probably* going to get a Labour government sooner or later then it's curtains for the UK.

Obviously Serica still down though.

Day ahead up nicely again. Still comparatively low pricing to what we have seen this year. Average price received (ignoring volumes as we don't know what volumes Serica is selling at which prices) over the past 9 days is 112p/therm.

Day ahead Deal date High Low Average Rolling average
11/10/22 10/10/22 185 165 173.777 173.78
12/10/22 11/10/22 176 165 169.266 171.52
13/10/22 12/10/22 185 172.5 176.109 173.05
14/10/22 13/10/22 179 146 163.063 170.55
17/10/22 14/10/22 95 85 90 154.44
18/10/22 17/10/22 101 75 85 142.87
19/10/22 18/10/22 40 19 20.347 125.37
20/10/22 19/10/22 60 31 46.179 115.47
21/10/22 20/10/22 110 62 88.051 112.42

Graph

https://imgur.com/a/vMooVSj

The press have agendas. Just like they didn't shoot down Starmer's etc comments regarding BP etc making billions, where there billions were NOT made in the North Sea so WFT would not affect them, they will not now mention that UK NBP is trading for sod all. To be honest, NBP DA has only been this low for a few days now. Last week it was mid 100's per therm. We can easily go back up that level in a matter of days. No wind, no sun, colder weather, LNG glut clearing up and we'll be back there.

Yes they should be but of course not all volumes hedged, indeed most are now not.

You've managed to find the Polish Day Ahead market I think lol. Apologies if that's not correct.

I've been recording DA pricing for a week or so now and this is the data I have so far. Averages to 142p/therm over the recorded period. Of course doesn't take in to account volumes sold at each price

Day ahead Deal date High Low Average
11/10/22 10/10/22 185 165 173.777
12/10/22 11/10/22 176 165 169.266
13/10/22 12/10/22 185 172.5 176.109
14/10/22 13/10/22 179 146 163.063
17/10/22 14/10/22 95 85 90
18/10/22 17/10/22 101 75 85

Source: https://www.marex.com/services/data-advisory/market-data/market-data-indices/

The WFT will never be repealed, you heard it here first lol. Even if gas prices stay low and never go back up again the government will not repeal, partly because they'd have to then admit that it was never the cause of bills rising because bills will still be very high and we'll still have an energy crisis. Liklihood is that gas prices do go back up again anyway. They'd be higher right now if it wasn't for the warm weather we are having. Seem to remember last October being quite warm too, although not as warm as this.

Probably just goes down by the dividend amount.

Yup, agree. Looks like we are going to 315p-320p ish or maybe even flash crash down to 300p area.

https://invst.ly/z8a2y

https://invst.ly/z87ds

Seems pretty closely correlated to both TTF and NBP futures. Obviously TTF has no actual bearing on prices Serica receives but just thought I'd include it to see what the correlation was. If I could get a chart of NBP DA on Investing.com I'd overlay that, but I can't.

It's probably the low-ish (by comparison to previous months) gas price. We are having unseasonally warm conditions at the moment. If that changes, watch out! Market is fickle and bid this up on gas prices being high and has done the reverse with lower pricing, totally ignoring the cash being built on the balance sheet.

I guess people are worried still about more WFT and general uncertainty in UK (who knows, we could have a general election this year) are contributing. All you can do it look at the FCF/EV yield here and think the floor has got to be closer than the top.

I don't see how they can tax North Sea oil and gas anymore than they already have. Prices have fallen and are nowhere near the eyewatering levels they were at, especially oil. The companies simply won't invest, especially given the uncertainty regarding fiscal regimes. Of course, if the goal is to achieve exactly that then yes, it would make sense to tax them further.

I don't think they can use the acquisition expense to offset against the new windfall tax. I think they can against the existing taxes though that were in place beforehand.