Member Info for shakeypremis

I get it from here:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/uk-nbp-natural-gas-daily.quotes.html

Now over 200p/therm. If this holds up it is going to be a very profitable summer for Serica. You get the feeling we could even see 300p/therm for sustained periods.

My God, these proposed amendments. Absolutely nuts. HIGHER levy, permanent levy, exploration and other investment activities being compliant with Net Zero and Climate Change Act. If the latter get put in then NO further exploration/investment will ever get done because surely any fossil fuel investment would not comply with Climate Change Act and net zero.

What should North Sea BOE reserves be worth when NBP is 300p+/therm? Of course these BOEs now come with 65% marginal tax rate (assuming no investment which is unlikely going forward). But probably these BOEs should still be valued higher than they have historically.

Aren't their operations all in the Netherlands? If so that makes them materially different to Serica's as not in the UK North Sea and therefore not subject to windfall tax. Is that not the difference here? Having said that. Most other oil and gas producers globally have been smashed recently, regardless of jurisdiction. So KIST has done well.

Where are you getting the prices for NBP day ahead? The CME website I was using hasn't updated the prices for several days.

In certain countries that use air conditioning. Domestic air-conditioning in the UK is not a thing and with everyone working from home, office air con won't be as highly utilised as it might have been prior. Europe however, the US, India etc, lots of air con going on there....

Monthly futures pricing consistently increasing but no real read through to day ahead pricing at present. Still around the 160p/therm mark (which is still a very good price for Serica to be selling gas at).

Uh-oh, not the Oil Walrus again. His analysis is paid for and meaningless.

Well environment is less supportive for miners because they are seeing softening prices for their metals and higher costs due to increasing energy prices (which Serica is benefiting from).

Everything is going down, regardless of fundamentals. Oil stocks, gas stocks, coal stocks, Serica. It matters not in this environment. All one can do is buy and hold.

Buy backs would make more sense if we had a lot longer current reserve life and knew that gas prices would remain high. We don't know the latter and we don't have the former. I'd think increased dividends and organic/inorganic expansion (inorganic via acquisitions and probably not the in the North Sea - FU Rishi you little pr*ck) are the way to go here.

Good chance management will do whatever they think is most likely to get them their LTIP awards. That's what they are incentivised to do.

Really don't know the answer to that. You'd think not but who knows.

I think the best we can hope for is for more clarity on what constitutes 'more normal pricing', a few concessions and it gets watered down a bit. It's not just the UK government doing these stupid supply response destroying policies, Queensland in Australia has just introduced a new royalty scheme for coal mining. What they've done is even worse than this North Sea windfall tax. It's royalties rather then tax on profits too. Expect more of these measures to be announced in other Western countries soon.

Rishi is not stupid and is not making policy up all by himself. Look around the world and you see the same movements. The supply response that would normally come from higher prices is being taxed/royaltied out of existence. Western Governments worldwide and those that seed them their policy seem hell bent on killing the supply response so we have sustained higher pricing and energy shortages permanently. This is how you change the world - by force. This is where people stumble and say, "but how could they be so foolish?" The answer is, they couldn't, IT'S INTENTIONAL. They are doing this on purpose.

Day ahead prices now very close to 200p. Serica raking it in at these prices.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/uk-nbp-natural-gas-daily.quotes.html

Serica won't be getting 300p/therm yet. Something 160p+/therm maybe right now? Don't know. Rising quickly though. Should be well in to 200's by Saturday assuming price don't drop back.

Two links you can look at that will give a good idea of current day ahead pricing. Not real time and delayed though.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/uk-nbp-natural-gas-daily.html

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/uk-nbp-natural-gas-daily.settlements.html

Downtrend tat was constraining has now broken to the upside. Now we have a lower rising trendline to break above.

https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_328e1b8dbe35b0c4b6fe6c3673333939.png

Or gas goes up and stays up above 300p/therm?