Member Info for shakeypremis

Yes, if they merge or takeover anything. That's a possibility at the moment, nothing more.

It absolutely will affect the share price and will affects profits here if Serica can't find some CAPEX spend to make. If NE doesn't come in what are they going to spend money on?

Should have clarified, Sunak as PM.

I think there is a good chance we get Sunak and more windfall taxes, maybe backdated a bit despite oil prices much lower than when it was announced.

Yes it's likely Labour are coming.

Will this uturn by the government on corporation tax mean an additional 6% on Serica's profits?

Yes, this NBP price is great really, especially given how much of Serica's market cap is cash. We aren't even in to winter yet where gas demand WILL rise. I wonder what the FCF and FCF/EV yields are at the current NBP price. Time to update my model I think.

Although I don't have confidence that management would do them. They aren't really aligned enough with shareholders for them to benefit THEMSELVES from buybacks so they might try to do everything they can to not do them.

*huge amount of cash would set the scene

We *could* see a perfect set of circumstances here in the not too distant future. If NE comes in and the share price doesn't rerate appreciably to take account of Serica's new reserves then with the company's huge amount of cash the scene would be set for buybacks. In this scenario this is where buybacks would be a good idea and would pave the way for much greater future dividends per share.

More like £500m isn't it?

Well exactly! I didn't say the share price would get permanently trashed. A dump will be an opportunity as you say.

Because that's how it works. The market is irrational. I agree a drop would not make sense but doesn't mean it won't happen. Current valuation doesn't really make sense with all the cash they have but here we are.

Yup. Price will get trashed.

Thanks NewKOTB.

NewKOTB, where do you get day ahead pricing from if you don't mind me asking? I get mine here but not showing same figures as you;

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/uk-nbp-natural-gas-daily.quotes.html

Commodity prices are set at the margin, a little bit of undersupply or oversupply and you can have huge price swings. Currently October seems to be fairly warm. If that changes, watch out. Also will depend on things like wind generation which is doing well (for a change).

Day ahead is not high priced at all at the moment, we are looking around 100-160p at the moment. That is probably not helping the share price. Of course we are still in shoulder season, price is likely to pick up going in to winter. Market is incredibly short-sighted of course.

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1576872022692745216/photo/1

What a sorry state we are in and there's really nothing we can do about it apart from go long UK nat gas via Serica. Sorry, not sorry.

*IF* NE comes in and doesn't look too complex (high chance of stuff going wrong during development) and/or expensive then it surely must be buybacks time (unless they have their eye on an acquisition). Right now Serica doesn't have enough reserves to be doing buybacks, dividends yes, buybacks no.

It's front month, i.e. November. Pretty sure.