Member Info for shakeypremis

Those of you who are trying to see this WFT imposition through the eyes of sense are looking at things the wrong way. It doesn't make any sense for UK energy security etc. You have to start at least considering their is malicious intent at play - it doesn't necessarily even have to be Hunt who's the malicious one, he could just be yet another useful idiot receiving policy advice from malicious sources.

You need to start looking at things through the eyes of someone intending to do damage and trying to achieve ulterior goals when analysing all government policy, such as covid response. If you don't wise up you are going to get run over in the years to come, if you haven't already. I mean that in the sense of investing and your life and liberty in general.

Would Serica even be involved in the licensing? They don't do exploration unless it's NE.

What is happening?

They won't because it doesn't benefit them (management/board) to return capital.

The first thing they can do is increase the dividend. Come what may they can afford to do that.

Do you have a link Mommur? Cheers.

Sorry, ignore previous comment, misworded. See below:

But do shareholder returns benefit the board? Not really. So they will try to avoid and go down the M&A route. The only way I see them doing shareholder returns without being forced by an activist investor/s taking board seats is if they fear for their roles and the company getting taken out. Increasing shareholder returns via increased dividends and or buybacks could juice the share price and help ward away takeover or hostile activist investor coming in to boot them out.

But do shareholder returns benefit the board? Not really. So they will try to avoid and go down the M&A route. The only way I see them doing M&A without being forced by an activist investor/s taking board seats is if they fear for their roles and the company getting taken out. Increasing shareholder returns via increased dividends and or buybacks could juice the share price and help ward away takeover or hostile activist investor coming in to boot them out.

I attended online. He didn't really have much interest to say other than he and others in the industry though recent WFT would "kill" long term investment in the North Sea. It seemed to me like he wasn't keen on investing in the North Sea. So if true any deal will have to be stellar or they'll invest aboard? Or return capital? I can't seem them doing the latter unless forced because the board will not gain from return capital.

What are you talking about? £500,000 a day from interest? No way.

ANY profit from interest generated on that pile of cash that is just not doing anything and lying idle should be returned to shareholders in a special dividend.

That is true, but never more than 6 years, you can't speculate that this will continue, you can only go on what is known at the time.

Serica only has 6 years of reserves left so you wouldn't value this company on a multiple, especially as it is a natural resource company. Just not how it works. You value them of NPV of reserves plus other assets they hold. We also have really no idea what gas prices will be going forward, anything can happen. We believe they'll be higher for a long time but we just don't know. It will have to be valued, surely more than cash.

Important thing to note is that each daily average figure I think is volume weighted (it's certainly not the mid-point between the low and high price of each day), but the rolling average is NOT the volume weighted average of the daily average prices. Something I might try to add. Still, the average price received for gas for the year so far, has to be somewhere around this rolling average figure I've calculated.

Also, what price did Serica sell its gas for on each day in question, we don't know, but we know it must be at least equal to the lowest price paid on the day.

I've also been tracking this data since August and calculating average price across the whole dataset here;

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m3UT3ZPdbLFzqFhVxBmlDdaJue5UgB7d-esawiPGXP4/edit?usp=sharing

Let me know your thoughts.

Same for me guys, but I found the same data at another location after searching the site. Looks like they just moved it.

https://www.marex.com/services/data-advisory/market-data/mmdi/

The way the market is valuing Serica you think that might be the case of other NS producers (I don't know this, just speculating). Serica currently valued at a very low EV/FCF ratio. So if Serica could find something worth buying they might be able to prize it away cheaply. That said, I would prefer they invest abroad instead or return capital. Probably little chance of either though, management aren't incentivised to return capital and probably don't have the wherewithal to go abroad. We'll see I guess. Need activist investors to come on board and force better use of capital.

You should be a comedian. Serica management buying shares? Bwahahaha!

It will take a while to revalue higher (assuming gas prices hold up), that's how the market works. It won't just revalue in a matter of days. This share more than others will have to wait to revalue but it will get there or it will get taken out.

https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/index.php

Will be worse once solar drops off later. Lots of gas being burned.