Member Info for shakeypremis

Again, no need to tell anyone here, or indeed indicate to me, just update the sheet! Remember to include 'For' or 'Against' indication by simply putting 'Y' in the appropriate column. Cheers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YlroXu5uCSz2buyLax0JxYBQSKM-GfIGmVxezv8RF8k/edit?usp=sharing

I am going to include a For or Against indication too as not everyone is against the deal.

I'm not going to be asking anyone what their holdings are - if you want to record your holdings (anonymously or otherwise) just update the SECOND google sheet I have linked below.

For some reasons permissions I've set for prior link don't seem to work so I've created another sheet solely for holdings. I'll back it up regularly to reduce risk of tampering by malicious entities trying to damage our resolve.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YlroXu5uCSz2buyLax0JxYBQSKM-GfIGmVxezv8RF8k/edit?usp=sharing

Try this and let me know how you get on.

Hi all

Thinking we should try to get a feel of how many shares we all control so we can assess chances of scuppering deal if we so wish after the Circular. I've created an extra sheet on a Google spreadsheet where I am tracking NBP Day Ahead. No need to put your real name or even screen name if you don't want to, just put your holding if that's all you want to give. Now this is obviously not foolproof and open to abuse but it's the best we can do. Edit away!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m3UT3ZPdbLFzqFhVxBmlDdaJue5UgB7d-esawiPGXP4/edit?usp=sharing

Can't be naive. Can only be skullduggery or we just don't know the full details of the deal yet - and the path forward after completion - which will come out later and convince us.

Of course they won't voluntarily walk the plank. They've been trying everything they can to keep their jobs and fend off takeover offers and that's why they won't return capital too, because it doesn't benefit them and doesn't help them do M&A which they can use to keep their jobs. Nothing against good M&A but this deal looks like it isn't that on the face of it. Happy to have my opinion changed by the Circular that will come, but as it stands I will be voting no.

Beech, how do you know this? Are you able to give us anything that proves this? Cheers.

SageofSinfold, the rationale of someone swooping here to buy out the company is EVEN STRONGER now than it was given the trashing of the share price. This company is trading close to 1x EV/FCF at current gas prices. Someone buys it out, divvies out the cash and then milks off the rest of the cashflow, extending life of assets as is appropriate and profitable. They'll make more than they spent buying the company for sure as long as gas holds up.

Serica board will clearly reject a takeover offer. What kind of offer has to be made for them to be forced to put it to shareholders?

Yes we'll be getting more info in January I think before the vote.

For me, if those tax losses can be used, this acquisition will pay for itself. I also like that Mercuria wanted to get in on the whole thing. They specifically didn't want a majority cash deal, they wanted a stake in the combined entity. I think they are going to help Serica diversify overseas. If however the tax losses can't be used I would vote this down.

I very much doubt Serica are misrepresenting Tailwind's tax losses.

After listening to the analyst call today it appears that the tax losses from Tailwind CAN be applied across the combined group. That's £2.1 BILLION of tax losses that can be used to offset the 30% Ring-Fenced Corporation Tax O&G companies pay and the further 10% Supplementary charge they also pay. That is huge. Pays for the deal itself in my opinion. These losses can't be used against the EPL so 35% taxation would still apply but still hugely significant.

These tax losses can only be used against the Tailwind assets can they not? If this is the case they are significantly less valuable.

Dickupham, you seem to have a handle on this tax loss stuff. Are you saying that the losses CANNOT be used against profits generated from Serica's fields? They will only be applied to current Tailwind fields?

Would this not be the time now to COME IN WITH A GOOD TAKEOVER OFFER? This could force shareholders to vote down the acquisition.

I really don't like the debt or the fact the assets are in the NS!!! FFS. But those tax losses, if they can be applied to some of Serica's non-WFT profits could be very valuable. £1.2b in ring-fenced corp tax losses and a further £1b in supplementary charge tax losses. That's quite a lot of tax!

"It is expected that at 31 December 2022, Serica will have a cash balance of approximately £420 million plus a further £40 million lodged as hedging security. This reflects expenditures on the North Eigg exploration well, the payment of tax and Energy Profits Levy instalments and the interim dividend paid in November 2022."

Don't know how much was paid for these items.

they wouldn't have been able to afford this if using cash, I will give time to evaluate this but I am not convinced this is a good move. oil is going to have to go $100+

"Slight change; end of Feb we'll have more cash and equivalents than our Market Cap. If I raise £1.5bn would you guys accept my offer?"

Infor, how are you calculating that? We certainly won't have £770m in cash by the end of Feb.

What is the market pricing in here that isn't known??? Is there anything? The EV keeps dropping by the day - combination of increasing cash on the balance sheet and decreasing share price! If this keeps up the EV will go negative at some point next year if we get another year of high gas prices. Average price of 200p/therm would get close to it.

No one likes a conspiracy, especially one perpetrated by elements of their own government etc but I guess that's why they work so well.

I agree though, the people most certainly are idiots for not seeing what is being done to them and resisting.