Member Info for shakeypremis

It's delayed info. By a day. So I don't know right now.

That'll be the front month NBP future most likely (haven't looked).

Day ahead NBP is all that matters, futures irrelevant other than giving small glimpse of what day ahead prices might be like in the future. Day ahead is NOT 387p right now, under 200p by the looks of it.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/uk-nbp-natural-gas-daily.quotes.html

NBP starting to ramp a little. Looking like we might be over 300p again in a couple of days.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/uk-nbp-natural-gas-daily.quotes.html

They can't can they?

Buybacks right now, given Serica's short reserve life don't make sense. When buybacks make sense is when you have a long reserve life that you know you can easily produce from/are already producing from and the market is currently not giving any value to future cashflows. You can then buy back the stock and knock down prices, reduce the float by a significant percentage, say 30% or more. Then future per share dividends should hopefully be higher. This is the idea at least.

This is exactly what is going on over in Australia with Whitehaven Coal. Coal prices are through the roof and Whitehaven has not been valued correctly by the market so the company is buying back a lot of stock and this provide much greater per share dividends in the future to shareholders.

If NE comes in and it has a high chance of being economic and not costly to develop it might make sense for Serica to start buying back stock. Right now they'd be buying back stock of a company that might not have any reserves before too long. The market isn't valuing Serica so lowly that buying back stock and then doing huge dividends makes sense, not that board would ever do this anyway, I don't think they are aligned with shareholders in this way because they don't own that much stock.

Market hates this stock and has done for a long time. Just so hard to catch a bid.

H2 should hopefully be even better;

1. Higher average NBP prices hopefully (could even see crazy pricing again in Nov/Dec
2. Roll off of hedges
3. Full impact from production increases from workovers completed in H1
4. Further possible production increases from H2 workovers yet to be undertaken
5. Possible buybacks/M&A (although are the board just pretending they are actively seeking M&A targets? We don't know)

To be fair, the value of Serica's sterling holdings is plunging by the day which makes paying for CAPEX costlier I imagine. Hopefully they've got some kind of dollar positioning or something.

A share buyback and bigger dividends will be better than nothing. Rather them do that than just sit on the cash watching it get inflated away. I think a buyback might be a good idea should NE come in, if it doesn't come in then we need to acquire production. Either way, we need increased dividends, the company can afford to pay them at these gas prices and sitting on all of that cash.

We'll hopefully find out just how much cash they have tomorrow. Then we can marvel at the EV here.

Not in these markets. Nothing is safe.

What has changed really since the recent top circa 450p/share? The gas price is still great, ~250p/therm and the company is still making cash hand over fist with cash continuously piling on the balance sheet. Windfall tax now not going to be extended yet still this is off over 20% from highs.

No problem.

THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT I SAID.

It's not *quite* as rosy as suggested in the article.

"More importantly, for exploration, in the old regime so-called tax losses were totted up and claimed as relief only once fields were brought into production.

Significantly, an explorer never actually advanced an asset so far as to make money off it, then those accrued tax losses may never claimed.

Instead, the new scheme allows for immediate relief allowing the benefit to be taken in the same year as the investment."

Yes, only if you are currently producing and paying taxes in excess of what it costs you to drill/invest. There will be very little exploration from new companies or those without significant producing assets in the North Sea. What this levy likely will do is force a consolidation as bigger companies that are already producing see that it now makes sense to drill more as they can just offset against tax and smaller companies find it much more difficult to justify exploration expense due to increased taxes destroying NPV of any prospects they have and not being able to claim back the tax because they don't have any/significant production.

My two cents anyway.

Unlikely WFT EVER goes away. Maybe if oil/gas prices absolutely tank.

There was a gap there but it closed 15/07/2022.

There is no gap there.

It is possible that news regarding re-spudding has made the fall a bit worse though. But who knows.

I am not sure we can say any of this price action is Serica specific and related to something going on behind the scenes affecting them only. Here's a chart comparing the movement in Serica and Kistos stock. Looks very well correlated to me.

https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_ff2282b38e801c54e4ccadfd7f3fa129.png