Member Info for shakeypremis

hTtps://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-24/egypt-shaping-become-real-energy-hub

Silverfinn, sadly I think your estimates for condensate production are going to be way off. In an RNS from SDX (I can't remember which) it was stated that condensate production from SD would initially be about 600 barrels per day. That equates to an economic interest of ~150 barrels per day to SDX (although with cost recovery it will be more in the first year of production). That estimate was made by the company before they announced last year that the SD gas was 'wetter' than they first thought and contains more NGLs. How much wetter I don't know, but it can't be that much wetter otherwise PW would have undoubtedly crowed about it.

So I don't think we are going to see much more than 600 barrels produced daily from SD. Tigris' estimate could even be correct. Just have to wait and see.

Some fair points on both sides. To be fair to SDX they've only done one drill programme in Egypt and one drill programme in Morocco. Both were very successful and found enough gas to increase production materially in both countries. That increase in production certainly hasn't occurred yet in Egypt and doesn't appear to have occurred in Morocco yet either. Egypt is obviously due to the slowness of getting SD online and Morocco appears to be caused by not getting customers connected and Squelcho being characteristically overzealous in his year end projections.

There's more drilling (importantly self funded) coming up in both Egypt and Morocco, and if these two programmes are similarly successful we should be laughing. It's important to note that in Egypt additional discoveries aren't going to come with nearly as much additional CAPEX as the first wells as the central processing facility will have been built already and new discoveries are essentially bolted on in a modular fashion. In Morocco there are some bigger targets to go after now after the first drilling programme and also there are still two intersting wells from the this programme that are yet to properly test (due to various problems).

If SDX get SD online, get Morocco above 10mmcf/d and also make another discovery or two somewhere this year I will be happy enough, even if the share price doesn't rise. This assumes my low-ball insider takeover conspiracy doesn't come to pass. If that happens I really will be severely pissed of..

Lol there is apparently so little going on here that people are accidently positing last year's prospective projects.

What is going on at South Ramadan? According to PW that should have been flow tested by now.

50-60mmcf/d of gas (plus some condensate) in South Disouq is supposed to come online by H2 this year. But take that with a pinch of salt. Hopefully it'll come in early but PW has picked up a reputation for over-promising on timescales.

Does such an indicator exist? I'm starting to think that SDX doesn't actually suffer from poor sentiment because actually no one is interested in it one way or the other. Just doesn't seem to be on the radar of most people for some reason.

Egypt is also working on a new code for mining as currently miners operate on the same production 'sharing' agreement as oil and gas companies and the economics of it just don't work for miners which is why there is barely any mining in Egypt currently.

Well that's not a bad bit of press for SDX. Forbes! I say.

If she wants to go to counselling then she'll have to pay the whole whack. I've got too much dosh sunk in to SDX to be paying for anything like that.

Another 500,000 shares shifted around today. I wonder if people dumping on the TSX are having their shares hoovered up by some buyer on AIM?

Yep, completely agree. They lose money. They might be profitable at some point but they produce piss-all and they have diluted share holders to oblivion. Still the mug punters on AIM are interested in it and aren't interested at all in SDX. It must be one of the most unloved on AIM.

So after issuing another 129,629,630 at 1.6p today to acquire a further 6% interest in some moose pasture in the Weald, UKOG regains the lead over SDX in terms of market cap. Currently valued at circa £92m.

What are we doing here? SDX need to dilute us more. It's clearly the way to build the company.

Egypt is quite likely to become part of the 'Belt and Road' initiative. It is going to grow in importance in the region and energy production will form a big part of that importance.

Is the free float really all that high here? There's really very little churn in volume most days and ~32% is locked up by insiders and even more if you include institutions and tightly held PI shares.

You are definitely right that the TSX delist will help to further reduce the free-float as I'll bet the remainder of my hob nob monthly quota that MEA Energy (now SDX SPV Ltd) will be buying another 10% as soon as they can. Ignalls may well do the same too, although not sure about them as they could have another 1% right now if they wished.

I've had to reduce my hob nob consumption by over 90% and furthermore stop consuming chocolate hob nobs entirely. Perhaps by the time I've reached my mid-30's, the share price here will have done something meaningful that sticks and then I can go all out and start to purchase hob nob chocolate chip.

Two Rabul drills this half and potentially three SD exploration wells. Nice. Please don't let us get bought out on the cheap.

We can't say either way with any authority. It's just all a little suspicious when you put it together. Moving to the AIM only categorically does make SDX more vulnerable to a hostile takeover though. That can't be denied.

So you can take advantage of lax regulation and higher max shareholding thresholds and rake the company private on the cheap. We can block this if we want. Not sure how PW etc will react if we do and hopefully they don't decide to punish us by deliberately sabotaging the company. You'd think that would be unlikely as that would hurt them also.

Yes we can and we'll only need 26% of votes to block it presumably.

The Managing Partner of one of the candidates for a hostile takeover is on the board! That doesn't help us. Especially if there is some behind closed doors arrangement to 'look after the boys' if this deal goes down.

Furthermore, expecting PW and the board to ensure that the rest of the shareholders receive fair value doesn't make any sense given it was them who put the company in this position intentionally! Your logic doesn't stack up.

Again, I am not saying this is what is happening but your post doesn't reassure anyone if there is a conspiracy afoot.