Member Info for shakeypremis

Fantastic coverage. That'll drum up some interest...

How about charlatan then? Less childish, but even more demeaning as it implies something about him whereas my very creative nickname doesn't. No, I reserve the right to call him whatever childish name I want until he gets SD online.

Despite my annoyance and misgivings about the delays in Egypt I did manage to notice through my frustration that Squelch mentioned that in Morocco, aside from their piped gas business which we all know about, they are also looking at selling CNG (compressed natural gas) to other customers. Presumably this stuff will be bottled or sold via tankers? Interesting, perhaps they have more gas than they can get customers for at the moment or perhaps this CNG side business has similarly favourable or even better economics than the current Morocco activities. Anyone else pick up on this? Of course Squelch was light on the detail. They seem to do that a lot. Not announcing things. Makes you think they don't want the share price rising...

To be honest, I am not sure if SD will be online by H2, even Q3. PW cannot be trusted on the timelines of SD anymore.

Squelchers did say in the interview that the two largest shareholders (MEA/Ignalls) do have a lot of influence over the running of the company. If they want extra shares/ or they want to take over SDX then they will probably get their way. We have to hope that they only want extra shares and if they are getting SDX to delay SD it's only so they can acquire the extra shares more cheaply than they might otherwise have to with SD online. After the de-list, holding circa 60% of the company between them, if they want to takeover SDX they'll be able to.

Probably at LEAST another 4 months of pain. H2 could mean anything up until last day of the year when Squelcho says it.

South Disouq won't be producing cash until H2 2019.

From the interview Squelch states 'well turn it on in the second half'. Will that then get pushed back to YE 2019? I honestly don't trust PW when it comes to timelines. They just keep getting pushed back.

Good results but nothing unexpected really.

Good points:

Nice to see Egyptian receivables balance being used to offset costs of South Disouq CAPEX. Sensible. They definitely aren't going to need extra cash now.
Looks like additional production was added in NEW Gemsa, although this extra production won't be seen in the average production figures this year due to some wells being offline and coming back in Q2-Q3.

Bad points:

SDX due come online mid-2019. Is this yet another delay?
Reserves have actually decreased from last year's figure of 13.5mmboe to 13.1mmboe (WI share). Are South Disouq reserves included in this? I hope they aren't.
Realised gas price for Morocco for the 3 months ending December 2018 is only US$9.78/mcf, whereas for the 12 months ending December 2018 the price was US$10.33/mcf. Although it was US11.03/mcf in the prior quarter. Customer stopping production for a time?

I don't see these results sending this upwards.

Definitely broken out of the channel. As I said before this doesn't mean an immediate explosion higher, it can just mean the old downward trend will turn in to a less steeper downward trend. I don't think so though. I think this is in a bottoming process with the bottom having been found. Lots of resistance at multiple levels above though. Next resistance between 44-46p I would say.

The downward channels on both the AIM and TSX have now been broken. Now this doesn't mean that this is going to shoot up but hopefully it will mean at the very least if this does continue to fall that it will fall in price at a slower rate.

https://invst.ly/ab9kz

The top two holders can't go over 20% even though AIM times show up to 30% before a takeover offer must be issued because TSX rules only allow for up to 20% shareholding. This is probably why SDX are delisting. I don't buy the cost saving line.

I'd say this is coming back down again. It appears to have broken out of the channel on the TSX chart but there were a few gaps made in the recent mini-rally. Additionally, it hasn't broken out of the channel on AIM. Lowest gap on TSX chart is 63p equivalent. Of course if it can kick on a bit tomorrow it can break out and then go back down yet still stay out of the channel and slowly close the gaps. That is also very possible.

AIM chart: https://invst.ly/a8m7p
TSX chart: https://invst.ly/a8m8b

It is indeed a blessed day. However the share price is still not out of the downward channel. Hopefully tomorrow.

Needs to keep this going, got to get out of this villainous downward channel;

https://invst.ly/a7ve9

https://invst.ly/a7ved

Sooner or later the market will work it out (as long as SDX isn't bought out before then);

https://www.lseaim.co.uk/post/sdx_value_analysis_lse_aim_ftse

Excellent. Not splashing out on Maldon sea-salt. Bog standard value table salt complete with sodium ferrocyanide.

SD should be online and, Morocco should be doing 10mmcf/d and SR flow rate should have been reported by now. Pinch of salt and all that. I'm going to throw salt at PW if I ever see him.

This needs to break 40-41p convincingly and hold above the downtrend line(s) otherwise I fear we are in for a repeat of the previous rally. Doesn't mean it has to keep going up, can go sideways or even down but not breaking back in to the channel.

https://invst.ly/a74b9

I apologise for the chart being a little messy but I think you will see what I am referring to. The downward channel is very obvious.

You are indeed correct. I can't even get a quote on HL like I was able to last week but not on II. I can get a quote for £40 @36p on II today though lol.

Maybe this is it? We have had many false dawns before though.

Wouldn't be the first time. Usually nothing comes of it.