Member Info for Senator1

Your right John.
What I was trying to say is if politics becomes a big part of the market by out or short as they are not a good mix. As the market involves participants putting their money where their mouth is I give the market more credit and hence blame politics more as talk is cheap.

e4.74 low on Aug 2, 2016 looks like will be tested and then its e4 June 2013. With div accrual at 14 cents that would be 3.5% so e4 not impossible. WR when he rescued Bkir he bought in at e3 in new money, 4.6% yield.
Politicians are to be avoided at all costs by the markets. They prove themselves over and over again to be of low intellect. This is a pity as they hit so many lives.

There is no way CBI or SSM would sign off on an individual buying a bank either directly or through a corporate vehicle. Also no way any bank in Europe allowed to buy another bank with NPE ratio greater than 5% unless it was a zero price rescue which isn't BkIr's situation.
No this is down to Brexit unknowns but also a very poor mgmt team and uninspiring 14 cent div accrual which if net is e800-850M is pretty poor and suggests a lack of confidence to me

Technically this share is in a downward channel, last time it took 4.74 for it to bounce and even then that took months. I think it will test 5 again and then 4.74. That is the higher probability scenario, could be wrong of course but this isnt trading on fundamentals more on emotions and unknowns. Is there any more clarity today?
there is an old saying in the markets, "never try to catch a falling knife". Worth considering before you fly in

there is no need to guess, Bkir give the data. The overall NPE book is marked at 36%. I said retail mortgages in Ireland marked at 20%, unprovided 80%. These are facts, not opinions, guesses or anything else. P.34 reveals all.

John, look at slide 34 of the H2 deck. 50% of the NPEs are Irish mortgages with a provision of 20% that means 80% unprovided for. These things sell at 30-35% of FV, that means a loss of 45-50% of the amount sold. If Bkir sold e2bn that would be a e1bn loss and for what? The macro in Ireland is doing well and property prices are going up why give this upside to someone else. All banks will always have borrowers with problems, if they don't they aren't doing their job on lending. Given what they have been through the workout experience in Ireland is in the banks so use it to create value for Bkir shareholders. They have demonstrated they are good at working things out. Slide 34 clearly shows UK is not the problem. At 7.5% ratio Bkir will not be the focus of the ECB, see slide 35 which proves problem is not with Bkir. At end of day everything boils down to the numbers if you are an equity holder as you have quite a leveraged position. They should just stay the course on the NPEs as what they are doing is working, and when they go below 5% which with further organic reductions and a bit of net loan growth they soon will, nobody will even mention it as an issue for Bkir

I'm afraid the maths speaks for itself. If distressed debt investors need 10-12% IRRs on their equity in Ireland AND they cant come close to the leverage of a bank (25x) then to give the investors the return they need it has to come from Bkir shareholders. I see no point in selling and subsidising newbies particularly as Bkir will soon be at the magic 5% and below. The technology investment costs P&L in the short term and I think Richie was right during his time as he had a different job to do. Bkir can sort of afford the investment now albeit still at the short term expense of shareholders.

Bkir's NPE ratio at 7.5% is manageable and on a downward trajectory. You can see from provision write backs they are making money going through resolving these issues contributing to the ROTE of 9.6%. The question is why would they sell them to someone else to work through and give away double digit returns to those investors and remember they could never achieve the leverage levels of a bank so it would require more equity at a higher return and that means Bkir shareholders lose. Bkir have lowest NPE ratio in Ireland and they are moving in the right direction. They are not Europe's problem child so hopefully left to get on with it.

Bkir don't own the PO. They just have an agreement that PO will act as originator for Bkir so all loans are booked by Bkir in return for fee to PO. Same with depos, when u deposit with PO money goes to Bkir but as most of it is under UK guarantee not an issue for depositors.
If Bkir bought the PO that would be a disaster. It will never happen of course. Allows Bkir a variable cost base but it does mean the profitability is less due to fees to PO.

Hi Radar, don't put your life's savings on it but Ireland is growing strongly and while AIB has a stronger team thats not worth e5bn. A raising tide will lift all boats. I the short its just got to get through 7.5/6 and then the 8.20s and stay above them and a whole new world is in front of Bkir. The UK cant do much worse than it has been doing so with the uncertainty over its future lifted and hopefully they get out of UK credit cards and see what they can do. I think in the medium term they are right to hold optionality on the UK. Lets see what happens but I think the direction of play is pretty clear on Bkir, Brexit aside

I think this baby makes 73 cents in 2020 so pays 36.5 cents in 2021 that's a 4.97% div yield at today's price when the 10 yr Irish bond pays 0.89%. Sooner or later investors will see this potential and this share price goes to e11 and even at that it is a 3.3% div yield, e12 would be my top, leaving out of the analysis Brexit which I have no idea what its impact might be. Even at e12 it is worth e1bn less than AIB which given their much stronger mgmt team is probably fair. Load up before its too late

No they are accruing an annual 14 cents. 28 cents would be them arriving at the 50% payout which is their 2021 target which they definitely wont deliver on in 2018

After AT1 coupon, EPS will be c. 59 cents. They will prob pay out 30% so 17.6 cents for 2018 or div yield of 2.44% . Compare that to 10 yr gov bond which has yield of 0.89%. Also the 2.44% is exactly the same as AIBs projected div yield. So I think 17 cents odd is a pretty good guess. Why they couldnt accrue at this level rather than dicking around at 14 cents says everything you need to know about this mgmt team, very cautious to a level which is a bit silly I think. Anyway thats what you have and they will make a bit of a celebration about 17 odd!

Nice double bottom at 6.74 area from which it bounced before, if it breaks that 6.20 area is strong support, then its 5. Needs to bounce away hard from 6.74. Lets see but at 5 its a bargain, a real bargain

Not any time soon. Yes it is strongly capitalized at CET1 13.6% after IFRS 9 and earnings should be around 62 cents per share. I think she will gradually move the dividend to the 30 cents first from 11.5 cents last year, maybe 20 cents for FY 18, that's 2.85% div yield on e7 share price. The Bank is doing 1.4% of capital generation per annum. She said she wants 50-60 bps for Transform, 50-60 for growth that leaves 20-40 bps for divs maybe a bit more given she is over capitalised to start and when you run these numbers you get to dividend around the 20 cent level. No room for buybacks for a while if she is to get to 50% div payout I'm afraid, the numbers speak for themselves for next year or so while she runs the Transform program

To set a minimum 10% ROTE for 2021 after spending e1.4bn on a platform upgrade to bring it up to date and be future proof with the best macros in Europe and call yourself the National Champion. What a load of piffle. A national champion with a c:i ratio below 50% with a healthy NIM at 2.24% should be doing 12% return on invested capital at a minimum. Given they are capitalizing 40% of the e1.4bn cost as an intangible its even more insulting to aim for min 10% on ROTE. Mgmt here is uninspiring and accounts for e6bn valuation gap with AIB

The reason he is keeping rates low is he is worried about the estimated 1 trillion euros of NPEs in Europe and is worried about the effect on the banking sector if rates increase for these borrowers. He has been telling banks for ages to get these down as he also is uncomfortable with negative rates but what can he do. He is buggered if rates rise in a material way as it could bring some of the banks down and then you have contagion and all hell breaks lose

remember stress tersts are not a pass/fail this time just an input to SREP which is nowhere near 13% for Birg so she cant even use that as an excuse. No, I think CBI told he to be ultra conservative and she didnt have the mettle to fight also will allow her to load up with options before this sp starts a run which it will do. A 16% capital ratio for a bank with a 8.6% NPE ratio is ridiculous. Its the capital ratio of a Greek bank where NPEs are much higher. To say they are running bank for shareholders is a bit rich. They are running it for the CBI, ridiculous totally ridiculous. She should just tell the truth and stop pretending

this bank will generate 140bps of capital in 2018. Trim cost c.50bps and the platform upgrade 40bps. That leaves 50bps on top of 15.8% Transitional which will mean 16.3% or 16.1% after full 20bps impact of IFRS 9 (even though this is applied in stages). That's 3% above the 13% target or e1.3bn. 120m div for 17 is miserable and lacks confidence. Barclays has many more headwinds than simple Birg and Staley doubled the dividend. Actions speak louder than words Ms McDonagh, confidence should lead from the front and she should have fought harder with the forces of extreme conservatism.

10.9m shares at 7ish yesterday in Dublin is illiquid, NO DEBATE. I know exactly where this share trades and at what volume & when the info is public who is trading it and why your singular ASK price is below the last traded and what this means