Member Info for Senator1

How does it have £167M of shareholders equity (31/3/20) if debt greater than total assets? and that includes a £100M plus provision for complaints AND £106m against bad debts. The answer is debt isn't greater than assets. There is a technical issue with trapped equity but what you said is wrong and now you are acting like the rampers you profess to protect everyone from. Ridiculous, more bullsh.t just the other side of same coin.

This isn't as risky as you stated. Most of what has happened is down to JB. If he gets back yes I think its over because the debt guys will pull the plug but if he doesn't then 49.9% interest pays for a lot of mistakes. The £140M cash gives them time to work through the legitimate claims for bad lending. 49.99% on £650M net loan book is a lot of cash even if you assume one third is paid and two thirds capitalised. Cos go bust because they run out of cash, not a problem I see for Amigo over the next 12 months with current mgmt. They dont have to be rockstars just get on with the day to day and say no to everything from JB on your own timetable.

If he requests Thursday Board have 5 days to decide. I would wait 5 days and refuse on basis of continual selling. He can then go to the courts and see how he gets on. If he has no shares unlikely to succeed. If he wants to increase his chances he will have to buy 10% and maybe this time retail will listen and not offer any stock and it will be like a short squeeze which is a beautiful thing. Don't look at sp in next few days it doesn't matter as he should be punished on his last 14%. The Bulls will have their day. He will have to decide to give up or buy back some shares as he cant realistically go to court with no shares and ask them to grant an EGM. The IRREVOCABLE has and is his weak spot.

He probably will interpret today's fall positively, that it is because his "back of fag packet"proposal declined. I think it is more to do with fact GC might not be running things and the uncertainty he is creating. His ego is being fed by the twitter followers. There isn't any point trying to explain the dire position this puts genuine shareholders in as you would just get a barrage of abuse as they just love his unconventional approach and wouldnt understand the mechanics of the securitisation facility and cross default if it smacked them in the face. Its a lottery now, sadly and the market hates that

A few posters provoking/having fun/whatever with the A word. There is no chance of that whatsover at the moment. I am very encouraging that the financing was rolled to Dec to give them time to work out a deal. Before that funding update that was the single biggest immediate issue for Amigo. With the current Board and management I am sure they will sort this out largely because I think the securitisation lenders have a lot of shareholders money as protection, over a third. However if JB forces a vote and wins all bets are off as I think those lenders will want out and that will be a s..t show. Some might argue that JB will refinance them and put in another £199M at 2%. IF he did and I dont think he would, it definitely would not be at 2% and if it was me I would suck profitability out via this loan, either way that is at the cost of shareholders. So bottom line there is minimal risk of A with the current team if you vote for JB you better know that he will refinance the £199M and the price and the maturity otherwise you are going down a very rocky road and my best guess is it wont end well. So some might love his unconventional communication by twitter and his aggressive talk but he will likely do serious damage. He can afford it, can you?

double treble my money in the private markets. There are lots of opportunities out there

No he wont because of the poison pill that exists with the securitisation

The nav isnt 35p. I understand it looks like that but you need to take account of your estimate of equity trapped in the securitisation which has been rolled to Dec. I estimated it at £80M so I get Nav circa half your number and so the rally to that level on the funding update made sense. So when they sort that out more permnently, x2 on sp. Once they sort out claims and process, pick your multiple based on it making say £75M per annum would be conservative (ex a second Covid downturn). The market hates controllong shareholders so this is at least dealt with as a result of pure stupidity rather than design

and Amigo can make £50-60M easy

By Friday this will be up. The Board are right, JB is not suited to any involvement with a public company and is a liability. Sort out the funding and FCA/FOS and Amigo £50-60M. The debate with the FCA/FOS isnt about the 49.9%, its about process. That is within the power of Amigo to fix and get agreement on. JBs drive and focus and playing fast with the rules helps to get something started from scratch and for that he has been well rewarded. Amigo is now a public company with no controlling shareholder and needs to act like an adult. Its over for JB, he should invest his wealth in the private sector where he can use his skillset. He is just not smart enough or articulate enough to have public scrutiny. He needs to accept he has nowhere to go on this and dial down the rhetoric. It was his own stupidity that put him in the 1% club. He needs to stop now. He would be an unmitigated disaster for Amigo shareholders with his plan and I hope most of the Board here realise that this is blindingly obvious.

I dont have it in for JB at all but he is a problem for the backed up reasons I have given. It has a fighting chance if it focuses on the securitisation negotiations and proves it lent responsibly and reasonably and in cases it didnt make the redress payment and move on. The idea that JB can slip back on the plc Board and not be on the Board of the regulated lending entity is a joke, its playing fast with the rules as they currently stand. What do you think the FCA will ask for in law? That no one not suitable to sit on the Board of the regulated operating company should be allowed to sit on the Board of the parent, thats what will happen. This whole situation is ludicrous and a joke. Nobody in a regulated industry takes on the regulator and wins. Yes make genuine arguments that you lent responsibly but dont play fast and loose with the rules and expect to win. With 100% certainty that wont work.

It is not zero risk at all. It is a manageable risk so long as a more permanent solution can be found with the securitisation lenders. If JB returns with his ridiculous plan and his damaged reputation with big institutional lenders then this will get very very ugly for reasons I have given. Imagine you had lent £199M to Amigo and the founder wants to return with a plan to strip cash and go off lending elsewhere, what would you do? The answer is simple, protect my interest and I would use up as much of the £80M i needed to incentivise the loan book secured to me to repay me in full. How would I do it? I would agree to write off one third of the loan if I was repaid in full and if I did that you can say goodbye to your £80M tied up in the securitisation. So the statement is true as far as it goes i.e to December. Amigo needs these lenders to work with them, anything or anyone that doesnt help this should, if they really cared about Amigo, step aside.
On the £140M that has to sit there as they made a provision of £127M for claims most of which the accounts tell us will be paid over the next 12 months in their estimate. You cant make a provision of £127M, believe it is needed over the next 12 months and not have the cash to deliver, that would be totally stupid and NO auditor would sign off on the accounts on that basis.
As I said, I think this can be fixed but not with JB. The ironic thing is if retail support him (and I suspect most dont know how to read accounts, like JB) then they will with high probability accelerating the end game because I am 99% sure he is hated by the suits for the stress he has caused. If you dont understand what I am saying you need to get up to speed very quickly before you blindly follow JB.

Heres the factual reason JB is toxic for any shareholder in Amigo. In the accounts to March it tells you £309.2M of Loans are secured against £230M Securitisation facility. We know the securitisation drawings are now £200M and so the Loan balance has fallen the same to £280M. BUT this means £80M of the shareholders equity of £168M is tied up here, half the equity. So as a shareolder you HAVE TO worry what happens to this facility as so much of your equity is tied up here and if this goes in to early run down you wont see it until the Loans are fully repaid or enough to repay the £199M now outstanding. This is the single most important factor for Amigo shareholders and explains why the share price rallied this last week or so on the extension to December. This is also why you wont get an answer by Monday from the Board as these lenders control the fate of Amigo, not the Board, not JB but whoever is lending this 199M. Then add to that the fact that i bet the Bond is cross defaulted to any acceleration of the Securitisation and you have a nigtmare situation on your hands. NOW before some get a heartattack I think they should be able to agree a deal with the securitisation lenders IF JB stays away. His plan to strip cash to go on an intenational expansion is ludicrous and shows he doesnt understand the detail of Amigo and the situation it is in. If JB was coming back with his plan and I was lending under the securisation I would put it in run down and do everything I could to get my money back and use up as much of the £80M as was necessary. My interest would be to protect my £199M. If my guess on the cross acceleration is right then its a total mess. Those are the hard facts why JB is toxic. There is no way the suits behind the securitisation want him involved with his dumb dumb plan at this time. So if this goes to a vote and retail dont understand the perilous state of the financing of Amigo then you will get what ignorance deserves. Those are the hard facts which you can ascertain clearly from the accounts. So the twitter voters are just that, twits

we were only on different sides as I wanted retail to be smart. I have never before seen a public irrevocable sell and that deserved to be treated in a very harsh way. It was subsidised because retail worried there was a big institutional buyer riding on his white horse to double treble bag the price. This did not happen and this is still the biggest problem with this sp. It needs the real money to get involved, if JB is anywhere near it that wont happen. The suits would never trust him. Until the big boys get involved this could stay grossly undervalued and thats why anyone seeing JB as a positive is also smoking dope.

Listen d...ass, selling your own business to yourself (61% shareholder) at whatever number you like isnt that difficult or impressive. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, self awareness or no self awareness

The real facts are that in the funding update of a few days ago the drawings on the securitisation facility came down from 232 to 199m and cash up about 10m so this baby is throwing off cash even in these difficult times. The net loan book is 650M, my guess is 300M is ring fenced against the 199M, maybe 250m. That leaves say 400M net loans and 140M cash against a 234M Bond, call that a 300m excess. They already have a 120M claims provision but even if this is light by another 120M that leaves 180M and this grows as they accrue 49.99% on the net loan book. So once the JB saga is finally over and the retail shareholders tell him to get lost there is loads of upside here, loads. However JB hanging about with his twiiter buddies has to go away for good. Once that happens and there is a constructive dialogue with the lenders and the regulators this has loads of upside. I was negative before as it galled me that JB was getting anything other than 1p for his shares. However I think the real jump in this sp will only happen when he is at near zero.

I ran $25bn AUM

I think the Board should thank him for his past contribution and say that Amigo is now moving on with all its stakeholders to find a way where it can serve a market that clearly needs support. Anyone who thinks Benamor returning is a lifeline and good for Amigo is very wrong. The Board needs to draw a line in the sand with him and say he is a distraction they dont need and are working hard on securing the future of Amigo as a regulated entity working with FOS and the FCA as a first step but if this is not possible they will defend their position in the courts if necessary. If they send a firm message to this effect the sp will rally. If they are weak and talk about further dialogue it will fall as everyone should be able to tell from this nonsensical, hyped wishful monologue, he is way out of his league

rubbish

rubbish, plc owns 100% of AHL. You only need to look at the accounts. This is what worries me most, retail voting that clearly has limited understanding