Member Info for Senator1

No, I'm supporting my position but that position will change if JB is supported by the headless chickens

AND only IF he is approved on the plc Board which if sense prevails will be short lived if it exists at all in a few weeks. He must know that this is a very low probability

The day I start listening or caring about morons like screamer is the day it is over for me

If they sort out complaints at circa the £120m or so they are guesstimating and get an agreed process with the FCA/FOS on which they can lend then Amigo can make at least £75M a year assuming one third impairment provision, 5% cost of debt and current operating expenses of £45M or so. Put a 7 times multiple on it and that's £525M market value and that's conservative. JB gets in and I think it goes under not because it must but because RBC will loose patience and will not be involved with this circus any further. Their reputation is their first priority and someone in Toronto will have no emotion over a decision on wanting out. They are a successful institution they dont need the business of mavericks, in the long term they do more damage than good. The good guys play the game and are very good at it.

there is NO WAY a moron like you has doubled anything. You are better off putting it on the lottery as any success you have wont be based on knowledge or skill BUT pure luck

Analysing Amigo doesn't take me hours. Its a very straightforward business and everything I have said is in the accounts and the bit I added about loan write offs can be got my reconciling the provision account which takes a minute. I have taken a long position in Amigo but will sell at a profit if JB gets in because I believe the lenders will not support him plus I dont think he can refinance all the debt nor do I believe ANYONE who is not allowed to be on the operating co. board should be allowed on its parent board so even if he got back it would be short lived. Do you not think the current board are making sure everyone is aware of this nonsense?

you don't use ebitda for a financial company, thicko as it doesnt catch the non payment of interest

Even your comment on cash rich company is misleading. Yes Amigo collected 121m but it only used 11.5M to repay debt. Why? even JB says that is the easy win on that, I agree with him. The reason is because they had to build the cash position to greater than 120M so they are able to pay out on the claims coming their way AND to pay the cash costs of the P&L statement as they hardly collected any cash interest. Also I believe the collections figure in Q1 was incentivised by offering write offs for repayments. This is why it is clear the cash just isnt there for the JB plan

AMIGO made an accounting profit NOT a cash profit, cash wise it lost £24.2M (3+18.5+6.8-52.5). Add back the non cash charges and take off the interest it booked but didn't collect instead adding it to the loan balance. You can make up your own mind how much of non paid interest you want to include in profit but my position is its not profit till it is in the bank particularly given the situation this company is in.

First, anyone trading using CFDs or similar products doesnt know what they are doing as the built in costs are ridiculous and the institution hedging the short CFD will short the stock and they will report and play by the rules and so your conspiracy theories go away. The rule is 0.5% so as i said just not a factor

There is no meaningful short positions in this stock. The shorts will attack this stock if JB gets in because they have a natural buyer for their short sales. A buyer that they know will loose the fight with the lenders. JB took about £300M out of AMGo at IPO and whatever he got over the last few weeks is peanuts. He doesn't have the money to take out the debt of Amigo. As a short the holy grail is selling to a founder who is in love with his company and doesn't have much financial expertise. He hasnt once mentioned what he is going to do about the securitisation debt. The biggest short term issue, not even mentioned!

First interest doesn't accrue to the P&L on Gross Book that would be a joke. It shows the cashflow difficulties the borrowers are having and it always worries me when so called revenue doesn't convert to cash plus it lends support to my view that the £120M of collections were incentivised collections via the loan write offs. This isn't sustainable. The fact that none of the so called experts even asked about this issue shows the level of coverage expertise is weak. look at their historic sp predictions they are an embarrassment.

thats none of your business

try refinancing your mortgage when its in default

No way, not before the debt is sorted, its too binary before that and put simply a gamble

So if there were so many lenders jumping over themselves to put £199M into this circus why havent they done it. Most lenders with a going concern qualification wont even attempt to get it approved by their risk committee. Only the vulture hedge funds will do it and they will take their pound of flesh from shareholders. Believe me you dont want to go there.

There is only one question every shareholder has to come to an answer on before they vote given £199M has a temporary waiver to December. If JB gets in with his international plan what will RBC do? Nothing else matters in the short term. My guess is they wont support him as like me they will see the plan makes no sense given the claims on cash. If they put their financing in run down what does this mean? Well they have a security interest in near £300M of the loan book and that means they get all cashflow on this book of loans over the next couple of years until they are repaid in FULL. As they are financing 200M out of 300m that means Amigo shareholders are financing the rest and thats what's really dangerous. IF it was me in RBC running it I would offer a one third write off to any borrower who repaid me. This is a terrible situation for Amigo shareholders as their money is trapped with nothing they can do. It will be a HUGE risk to back JB as I feel the share price will fall hard. I suspect JB knows this and yes he will buy up to 29% at probably somewhere between 1 and 5p but nowhere near 20p as he must know he has to take out the 199M if he can that sort of cash. Now even with the existing management is is no slam dunk RBC will agree beyond December but there is a chance because the current mgmt are trying to fix things in the UK and not suggesting they will try and get cash out to go international. Anybody trading this share over the last few months and claiming credit for great decesions between 5 and 20 and back down again is fooling themselves. They were punting and got lucky, simple as that. If you dont believe me look at the qualification to the accounts. Nobody knows what RBC will do but just think for yourself what is likely in the two scenarios; existing team or new JB with his erratic behaviour. Between now and December that is the only thing you have to think about everything else is a distraction and IRRELEVANT. I think the answer is simple if you understand the precarious position Amigo is in. THOSE ARE THE FACTS, everything else is BULL...T

re-read my post the big cash moves are to come. what I wrote is 100% factual and I understand the accounts in depth. I couldnt really care less if you vote for JB or not but if you there is a high probability the share falls. He knows that as the big money knows an internal expension is beyond stupid and then this is a high probability short as the lenders wont agree to extend the waiver and then you are f..ked

wrong, you can see way mgmt acting from accounts. In Q1 they wrote off £27M to get collections of £120M. I am sure there is a link here although I cant prove it. They say in accounts that borrowers repaid early but I bet they were incentivised by getting a 20-30% write off. That why they are confident on clearing back log. They are not fighting they just want to put it behind them, people lie, the numbers dont

I encorage anyone who is going to back JB and his international plan to look at the cashflow statement and understand it. The cash just isnt there for this plan. Before someone points to the £145M, a minimum £120M of this has been allocated to paying the claims. Mgmt think that £110M will go out over next 12 months, you can see this in the accounts by looking at the short term provision in the accounts. Also if Amigo doesnt reach agreement with RBC all cash on £300M of loans that support the securitisation go to RBC until they are fully repaid. This ALONE cuts off 50% of the available cashflow. If JB gets voted in this sp will CRASH and he will get a very cheap buy in on up to 30%, it will cost him pennies. Many of the 2% will shout rubbish at me but go and look at the accounts, all you need is there in black and white. Vote for JB and this crashes and anyone who knows that the cash just isnt there for an expansion plan and think for a second is RBC likely to support him or just say we want out and if they do then its over as it will be years before they get their £199m back from the £300m of loans they are financing. To anyone who knows how to read accounts this is obvious. You have been warned.