JBs Plan4 Sep 2020 10:05
JBs plan is essentially to take cash outside remit of FOS and focus on international activities. Here's why that doesnt make sense and why he shouldnt be supported as the sp will collapse. As at Aug 14th we know the securitisation drawings are £199M. Note 9 of accounts tells us £297M of loans are assigned to these debt holders. Since August all future cash on these loans has to be used to repay the 199M (part of debt extension deal). That leaves about £350M of gross loans that have to generate the cash for all other uses. The main ones are the operating expenses, £40M p.a., the secured bond interest £20M p.a. and other cash expenses of playing with JB say another £5M so, that is a cash need of £55M from £350M of loans. We know that in Q1 hardly any borrowers paid their interest in cash and 90% plus of the cash Amigo got was because of accelerated debt repayments because the borrowers got loan write offs of £27M. They cant keep doing this. So when you look at the cash position of Amigo it is precarious and thats why there is a going concern qualification. They cant touch £120 of the £140M as that is set aside for claims. This is also why they havent bought the secured bond which is the obvious thing to do. This is why the JB plan makes absolutely no sense and suggests a man who is financially illiterate. He may be a great builder of businesses but he doesnt understand the numbers when things get big and complicated. The irony here is that if he is supported you will never see 20p as the plan doesnt make financial sense. That is obvious to me, it will be to RBC, it will be to MIC and the other big holders and to the Secured Bond holders who will then be trying to get their money back. Businesses go bust because they run out of cash and preserving cash and agreeing a deal with RBC where some of the cash on their portfolio is allowed to grow the business is the name of the game here. This reliance on a conditional bid from JB of up to 20p is silly. If he gets in god knows where the price goes as their will be a rush of sells because his direction will lead to ruin. This IS NOT a slam dunk where the sp goes, anything but. The thought that retail, most of which dont know how to read the accounts, are a big part of the decesion making process, is VERY SCARY. VERY SCARY.