Member Info for Senator1

no they havent

Im not broker led, Im an independent professional trader thats wants to cover and go long. I do find it amusing that the biggest self professed longs are the ones shouting hardest for JB and against the board even though a first year business undergraduate could tell you, you are backing the wrong horse all all through ignorance and waffle!

He took £300M out at IPO time and pennies from his sales over last few months. Lets say he doubled the £300M he took out from IPO over last few years (which he hasnt Im sure) he still doesnt have anywhere near enough cash to finance Amigo going forward. There is £430 m gross debt outstanding as at August. Its not funny at all, he doesnt have the resources, full stop.

In simple terms what I am saying is if you are short or want to be SUPPORT JB, as 100% it is then over. If you want to give it a fighting chance and like the ACTIONS you saw in Q1 then you have to support the Board. I sympathise with Nayan as he is not a fool but he was told not to say anything other than what was in the press release and so he is being unfairly treated. What management ARE DOING is 100% the right strategic direction. Think about it, they have a £90m credit provision and £120 claims provision. They used £27M to get 120m repaid, if they keep this up they can clear the troblemakers and then release back the unused claims provision but IF everyone is kicked out and there is months of internal wrangling and twitter posts then it will end very badly that is a 100% certainty

You are plain WRONG. £300M of the loan book has been assigned to RBC this means ALL CASH from here goes to RBC and the £230M SECURED BOND has a security interest in the equity of the lending entity. They will not allow cash to leave this entity, not a chance in hell, until they are repaid. These are institutional lenders they ARE NOT FOOLS. What he has presented doesnt work and shows me he doesnt understand how financings work

Business is business and while the P&L account and balance can be manipulated as there are many non cash items, the cashflow statement is KING and tells you everything you need to know and show the reults of that passion and vision. The rest is just twitter nonsense

Not a hope in hell that any institution will support JB as his plan doesnt work and with high probability will lead to the debt going in to run off and then its a static business going nowhere. JB wont find other institutional lenders because they will see what I see and he doesnt have the financial resources to take out the existing debt and provide more debt for growth. JB is bringing you to a cul de sac and you will die a death of a thousand cuts

and come out and say anyone with a complaint we are offering 18-20% loan write off if you or guarantor pay the balance off? You seriously want them to say that publicly? Is it not better to keep your head down and work each case individually, quietly. Thats what they have been doing and thats the best way if you want Amigo to survive. Its easy for JB to throw insults from the sidelines as he knows no responsible management that care what happens to shareholders can debate this approach in public so he comes across a hero to those that know no better.

The Board are operating a cunning plan already, we can see it in Q1. They cant come out and speak about it as they are being selective and getting cash in. If you are long you need to take the time to understand what they are doing and why & decide if you agree or disagree BUT to say they are doing NOTHING is PLAIN WRONG. £120M in to AMIGO in cash didnt come from nowhere and without a plan in a period when cash in the UK economy was tight. The Board might not be the most dynamic or best communicators but they dont need to be, its a very simple business. In my world ACTIONS speak louder than words but you do need to understand the numbers to interpret their actions. If you dont understand the numbers then you are gambling and thats fine but dont try and persude others on basis that Board are doing nothing. THAT is PATENTLY WRONG AND THE PROOF IS THERE in the best form possible, LOAN REPAYMENTS, 120m of them

Look at what they ACHIEVED in Q1 (talk is cheap, any loser can talk). They got £120M of repayments in Q1 when most of the book wasnt paying interest all in return for £27M of write-offs still leaving Amigo with a £90M credit provision. Nobody knows because they gave little away in their presentation but I bet this was targeted at those pursuing claims. THIS WAS A HELL OF AN ACHIEVEMENT in the Q1 period, incredible. They deserve credit for this. The bigger investors can see this from the accounts, its only the fast money dreamers that spout a lot of rubbish and cant read the numbers presented to everyone that are in a dark hole

The big investors know exactly what the Board is doing although they cannot come out publicly and talk about it as it will encourage more bogus claims although this is all in the numbers. In Q1 Amigo gave £27M of loan write offs and got £120M repayments. They said on the call the repayments were unexpected but I dont believe that, they were related and I think incentivised. I also think they targeted this offer to those borrowers and or guarantors who were complaining. They were offered a 18-20% write off on loan on basis they repaid the 80% in full and gave up on the complaint process. This is a clever strategy as got them cash which they need and resuced the claims. They clearly cant talk about this publicly as it will bring every slime ball out from other their rock. However if you understand the accounts it is obvious what they are doing. The ironic thing is they are working hard on behalf of the Longs but cant talk about it and the really funny bit is most of the PIs here to try and make a fast buck cant see this and think they are all useless while the guy on the sidelines with a plan that makes no sense is a hero. The big guys can see what they are doing so they will just ignore you which is exactly what I would do in their place. The big guys and the PIs who understand what they are doing will back the management because they are doing the only thing they can even if the great unwashed cant figure it out for themselves.

I bring balance. Im not trying to ramp it up and convince the inexperienced to stick or increase their investment in a situation that is binary and as such is a gamble plain and simple. I will debate with anyone the true financial position as presented at Q1, which was not good and heavily massaged. I dont disagree with what they did as I believe it was their only option but massaged it was. To think that almost all the borrowers didnt pay interest in cash but £120m decided for themselves to make principal repayments, yeah right. The mistake they made was not being upfront and then even the ostrich crowd would realise that cash is tight, very tight.

How often does the market need to beat u up before you realise you are wrong. How many times have I read on a Friday really looking forward to next week, "this will fly, no 4.75m share sells, JB is the man, he has the vision, the BOD are idiots blah blah". The simple truth is the institutions have done NOTHING only sell. No self respecting institution wants to be involved with this circus. Its just you guys on HL, Halifax, IB and the other retail platforms giving and taking money from one another. NOBODY serious will play until the EGM, get that in to your thick heads. If you are long you better hope JB loses because you will be wiped out if he wins, thats a near certainty as at minum it will require a recap to pay off the debt. As its a mostly retail shareholder base that will likely fail or be a very very cheap opportunity for the vulture hedge funds who are sitting watching and waiting

An idiot who buries his head in the sand, smart, very smart. The market will sort you out very quickly.

A co, with a going concern qualification is a "crystal clear investment" in your tiny brain. Your an idiot, plain and simple. Anyone who listens to you will suffer very heavy losses

and you have NO IDEA what you are taking about. EVERY POINT TOTALLY WRONG, TOTAL BS.

145m cash of which 110M allocated.
Nav, who knows. There is so much equity trapped in the SF this is impossible to calculate.
at UP TO 20p if he is proposed and approved CEO, which he wont be and if he is he will be buying at sub 5p as sp will collapse and he knows that.
They have £50M headroom on SF which my guess is can only be used to capitalise unpaid interest. They have no RCF

every point wrong

No, the only LT time to buy is when the debt and caims are sorted. That will lift the GCQ

I dont think so, the difference between Q1 and Q2 is that since RBC agreed to extend waiver they get all the cash on their £300M of assigned loans. The rest of the loan book has to service all the cash operating expenses. At Q1 the only source of cash for Amigo was accelerated repayments as the interest was capitalised. They got the easy wins and they had to do this to have the cash to meet the claims. I suspect this is going to be much tougher battle from here. I would say cash is very very tight as they cant keep offering a 20-25% write off