Member Info for Senator1

Anybody attending AGM ask;

1.) Conversion price on Converts and interest rate

2.) Tax position on the sale of the 49% of Europe assuming sold at net book value

I agree with your analysis and would only add concensus for FY 26 is eps=7.6, a 4% improvement on FY 25's 7.3. Using Rev of £335M I'm at 7.7p assuming they get to 40% adj. ebitda margin which I think they will. If I knew I was going to disappoint here I would have held back on the buybacks as I would know the share price would fall on this disappointment. So on 7.6 eps and my chart shows the mean NTM PE ratio is 24.5x, using that I get £1.86 as FV. I appreciate 24.5x seems high but if it does do circa £57M after MI expense that is a RoE of 18.89% on the FY 25 closing equity of £303M.In reality this return will be higher due to the buybacks and so I think it will be approaching 20% RoE. With a cost of equity at say 12%, this is adding substantial shareholder value. However, I agree the missing piece is LfL growth, market is viewing acq growth in a less favourable way and given the lack of announcements so far on more acquisitions I think management are focused on this missing LfL growth. Lets see.

The 12 month correlation between Data.L and IGV is 9.9% so the argument that it is following US tech is just not supported by the numbers.

At the time of the GFC Hank Paulson famously said when you have an issue with the financials markets you don't bring a hand gun but a bazooka. The £5m is a hand gun. There are 2 implications;

1.) Data know there are no buyers as they have done a really s..t job with their presentations to institutions that they haven't persuaded a single one to look at the share. No wonder Lilley is going!

2.) In their mind they see the £5m getting them to the interim results presentation where the results will be better than expected and then they believe the buyers will arrive and they wont need to prop up the share. Even if the results are good I think the institutions have decided to give this a wide birth as they dont want to be a minority shareholder to Mr Danson. If they want retail to participate then they need to play the IR game in a professional way which they dont. In fact as they do it now it is a huge negative as they have a very bad reputation with professional investor groups as they are just not set up to communicate with them probably because Mr Danson views them as an irrelevance and best avoided. That arrogance is costing him a lot and everyone else is caught up in this multi-faceted structural problem.

The vol on Friday was 15.3M shares, 7.68x the average volume of previous 12 months, so trackers are all in. Their £10M buyback is over and so now there are no buyers and very small retail trades, couple of hundred quid are selling. The GD IR department has been so woeful in their preparation for FTSE 250 entry and clearly haven't persuaded any institutional interest. Doesn't surprise me as when you send them a question they never answer. The £10M buyback over last few months was the only significant buying interest and now that is gone the retail sellers are in control with only 261K shares traded as i write, so basically nothing in value terms. As this was one of the largest AIM stocks it historically had a lot of IHT money but you would think this is well out, so why the continued selling? Data have wasted so much money and effort on FTSE 250 entry and the message so far from institutional buyers outside trackers is no interest. That lies squarely with management.

GD's net leverage at FY 25 was 1x, so not an issue. Their £10M buyback is now coming to an end and I think the FTSE 250 entry only involves £6M of net buying so with an average daily traded value of £2M its not huge. If I were GD I would announce a £20M buyback to add to the buyside pressure. The CFO is on way out so this probably wont happen but that is what should happen. The shares are cheap and an astute management team should add to the buying pressure and join the passive buying which will probably start next week.

GD bought another 300k shares yesterday at the max of the allowed 25% of daily volume. At 93.47p the market cap is now below £700M for an ev/adj. ebitda of 5.96x based on my adj. ebitda estimate for FY 26 of £136.5M which is slightly higher than concensus at £134M. At PE level I have it on a forward PE of 9.24x. It seems to be tracking IGV down but the big difference is this etf has a historic PE of 38x so the fact that some of the air comes out of this software etf should not be affecting GD in the way it is. GD is cheap whatever way you look at it.

I think the mgmt team are total imbeciles and way out of their depth. The elephant in the room is the continued funding and how they are going to raise the money. Instead we get pure b....t, garbage. He needs to go and the CFO just not suited to roles in a public co.

Average is 2m shares

Yesterday GD were 12% of the daily volume buying in almost 300k shares and at £0.956 the market cap is now £716M. Even for a business doing low 30% Ebitda margin this is cheap but for one aspiring to be back at 40% it is really cheap. AI and all its undoubted benefits can only do its thing if it has access to the data, that is GD's moat. Much easier to bring your own AI tools to the table when you have cleaned data to work on and that data is proprietary. It is very expensive to make important decisions on poor data so enterprise will always pay to get cleaned reliable data. The trackers will start buying from 3-10 days forward of the start of the new entry to avoid crowding. The average daily volume of last year is "M shares and median 1.5M shares so even getting £20M done is significant. Lets see what happens but if retail stopped supplying offers (as that is where the stock is coming from) this could get very interesting, very very interesting. The next week or so is very important.

Yet another way to look at the silly valuation of GlobalData is. Healthcare sold a minority stake at a £1.1bn valuation, implying the 60% is worth £660M. This means the non healthcare has a current valuation of £56.3M and in 2025 this division did almost £50Mof adj. ebitda. Yes you could argue that GD got the 40% away at a high valuation multiple of18x, which is truish, it certainly wasn't outrageous for such a high margin business at 56% in 2024 and 50% in 2025.So the fundamental business is undervalued and then you add the technical FTSE 250 inclusion and its super cheap. IGV was of course down in the US, closed down 2.82% but was up in the after market. This is a strange share, very strange. We all know it has really sh.t IR and so probably good that the CFO is going but who knows if the new guy will be any better. I guess he cant be worse, maybe!

Looked at another way, over the last 3 years the NTM ev / adj. ebitda multiple has traded between 18 and 4.9 Its currently 6.33x as it is about to join the FTSE 250. Tells you everything about the current sentiment on this share so the short term trigger is the passive buying from the ftse 250 trackers. The new stocks enter June 22nd, including GD so hard to understand why anyone would legitimately sell right now. There should be NO STOCK offered and the passives will have to chase it, they have no choice. Any retail selling now doesnt know what they are doing or desperately need the money.

At 98p current mkt cap is £734M, add the FY 25 net debt of £114.2M and you have EV of £848.4M. Concensus Rev for FY 26 is £335M and management are calling out back to 40% adj. ebitda margin, that's £134M so ev/adj.ebitda is 6.33x. If they achieve the 40% adj.ebitda margin that will be a 21.6% growth in adj. ebitda. Then look at the imminent FTSE 250 membership and at moment they would come in at 186 by market cap or 0.2% of the total market cap. The FTSE 250 membership buying wont be huge but it doesn't need to be as 75% of the existing shares are held by insiders so that leaves them chasing 187M shares, so even £20M of buying is chasing over 10% of the available shares. Someone is back trying to manipulate this share again to shake out weak hands.

Yes of course when a lease ends you have a new calculation but these leases are very long term, 10-15 years and remember as part of the negotiation the landlord may even have to offer more free periods to hold the lessee particularly in a poor business environment. So even if we are talking about the situation when a lease ends it is not a fair assumption that the new contract has a requirement for full lease payments from the outset. A lessee like bme knows there has been capital amortisation during their tenancy and will want that reflected in the new lease terms in some form.

It is a non issue as the accounts dont follow the cash payment on leases. The accounts will charge the effective lease charge over the period from the start of the lease so there is no material step up when it goes from rent free periods to paying periods as that is all accounted for from the beginning of the lease. This accounting approach is followed in many other areas where there is divergence between cash and accounting charges. They don't have to note materiality as there is no material step up as they account for it right from the start charging to the P&L a "smoothed" number of the real annual cost and that's the reason there is no note on a material step up in costs because there isn't one.

The share has risen because it did what the stock market always does, it had overshot to the downside. The fact that things have now stabilised as co delivered in the middle of their guidance has allowed the overshoot to come out of the share price. Its not yet discounting an improvement as £2.3/5 is FV on what we currently know.

They reduced their shareholding by 1% presumably to make room for the converts they agreed to do which from memory was £2M. That would have been some of the selling pressure recently. If this stock was US listed it would be worth at least twice its current value. The US anticipates the growth, the UK is more show me.

In a poor year for BME we know the post tax free cashflow was £321M. The way they define this metric is after all lease costs but before bank and capital market debt. If you assume cost of equity at 12% and debt at 6.5% you get a weighted discount rate of 10.6%. Use this to discount the free cashflow and subtract debt and add cash and you get a FV per share of £2.36. This includes no operating improvement and of course no further declines which management suggested they could mitigate, so based on that I think the current share price is cheap and if they can get the UK operating margin back to double digits and LfL growth positive, then it is very cheap. If I revised the calculation and used a cost of equity of 10% then this gives a fair value per share of £2.85 so maybe a reasonable target over next few weeks is £2.50 ish a share. This management team are far superior to the idiot who ran things before as they are real retailers and not accountants trying to be operating retailers. If I were short this share, I would be covering as the outlook is skewed to the upside. If they all start covering then even £2.50 ish could be reached very quickly. What the shorts do will be the early tangible signal . I would like to see another 15-20% upside day and then it gets very uncomfortable for them.

With year end cash at £342m and the final dvd costing £61M, the cash position of the group is very strong and I'm surprised they didn't announce a "token" share buyback, even £75M at these depressed levels. The lower SKU count going forward is going to have a material impact on cash usage and if they can increase lfl sales in the UK and improve the margin, this share could double from these levels.

BME trades at 5.17x ev/adj. ebitda pre ifrs 16, this is a very cheap stock. Net Bank debt at year end was £656M and adj. ebitda pre IFRS 16 £459M which shows the cash generation capabilities relative to the non lease debt. I