Member Info for Senator1

Apologies I went back and checked. The UK's accounts are indeed the 743M number but they have filed another consolidated set called Revolut Group with the £923 number with loss before tax of £25M. In 2022 they grew Rev 45%. Could they go to 100% in 2023. Probably but that would mostly be explained by the increased earnings on cash held (like Wise) but that will be short lived as they will be under pressure to return more interest to customers. Wise have said they want to be able to return 80% of interest earned but for now they need to invest more to do that. The point is for a Group making nothing in 2022 after operating costs what is the right valuation, £4bn, 8bn, £15bn, £20bn. If most of it comes from interest on cash balances thats not high quality. thats why Wise management play this way down on theirresults calls and told the market this is a short term benefit which is allowing them to invest more to bring costs down. Rates going from 0 to 5% had a big impact on the Wise numbers but they know it doesnt look good to keep most of the interest earned, its not their cash.

Revolut's Revenue in 2022 was £743,867,000. If you know what you are doing they are easy to find. There is no debate on that ACTUAL historic number. You need to stop getting your information from the internet and go to source documents and if you dont know how to do that, stay out of the markets.

Or maybe another way to look at it is; is Revolut worth twice Wise plc. In 2022, last accounts aqvailable for Revolut, Wise Rev was £560M (2022) and Revolut £743, thats 1.32x higher. Based on Wise's £8.5bn valuation that suggests £11.2bn. or 25% less than the £15bn. Plus Wise is public so theoretically should have a further liquidity premium. Will be interesting to see Revolu's growth when 2023 published.

Total rev up 56% driven by interest income up 246%. looks like market re-evaluating the PE ratio which I think is circa 34x 2024 outcome BUT with c. 50% profit growth the PEG is 0.69. As rates not going down this year and I expect Wise to lock in rates well in to 2025, I think market has this wrong for now.

Looks like 2024 Rev will come in at c. £400m up 7%. Is this a growth stock? My estimate of net without all the adjustments for 24 is £47M, up 12%. Thats c£14k per each of 3319 employees/contractors. Does it deserve a P/E of 22x or PEG of 1.53, thats the question really. RoE at 36% is very impressive so that would support those ratings, i would just like to see more growth and a higher contribution per employee.

Additionally they did not sell aggressively, they went from 6.9M shares to 4.9M shares. 2m shares at £2odd is nothing to AVI, couple of million quid. Its peanuts, means nothing. AVI has a market cap of £1bn. Im sure Bauemfreund's PA is authorised to handle decesions of that size.

Yes 4.9M shares is 2.6% as of their last report and as you say they are under 3% so NOBODY knows until the AVI semi is released where they are now. YOU SAID, they are "all out, confirmed by recent RNS". The recent report says they are at 2.6%. It does NOT SAY they are out. You dont know and I dont know what they did since then. As I said, stop guessing and spreading guesses as facts, deal in facts. The last fact is 4.7m shares or 2.6%, where they have gone from there is maybe done nothing since or are somewhere between 0 and 2.999%. NOBODY knows.

Rubbish, last report from AVI was 6/3/24 4.9m shares. FACT, there is no debate about that. You are just making rubbish up.

I suspect the reason such a straight forward set of accounts is in to the fourth month after year end has probably a lot to do with the going concern statement from the auditors which in turn is a function of the structure of the external bank debt, the £110M which was increased by £50M during the half year . £110M at 8% needs £9 m just to pay interest and whatever amortisations are required are extra. When you are doing only £20M of revenue in 6 months and prices are declining rapidly its a tough position to be in. National Grid better gets its act together. Ridiculous really that they could kill this important business initiative because of inefficiency. Never be reliant on Governments or civil servants until they are in crisis mode and then they are lambs to the slaughter.

Interesting article. If the price at end 23 is one third of where it was in 22 than my back of the envelope is too high for now and the share price could half again from here ie by not making the double assumption I did to see where the market was at. It doesn't mean it is out of business it is just a reflection of the poor cash returns from such a high accumulated capex spend at current pricing levels. As they only have £110M external bank debt as most of the debt is intercompany from the plc to the operating entities and they can capitalise this interest but that of course is the reason the div was cancelled and will be for 2024. They raised over £600M in equity and it generated £20M revenue or £13.8M ebitda in the first half of 2023. Think market valuing it at £230M odd is being nice. It could get much uglier. Think they should try and sell some of smaller units if they can get a reasonable price just to build their cash reserves. The £110M bank loan will want its interest in cash and so GRID don't want the lenders getting nervous. Think its led by Santander.

The underlying EBITDA is 13.8M for half year with external interest 4.4M that's 9.4M EBT. Take off tax at 25% and EAT is 7.05 for half year say 14M for FY. Double it for the capacity increases etc and all initiatives they are working on and for now value as a perpetuity at 12% and you get £235M, the current market cap. Until there is more information this basic DCF approach justifies where we are at albeit with a doubling of the underlying P&L account and the value of a perpetuity without further investment which is unreasonable. Market isn't being unreasonable just working with what it knows at moment in a high level way.

AVI did not get out at a profit. They are nursing a loss which the accounts clearly show. Plus they are not out

SMT is a good indicator as it is the largest IT in the UK and much more liquid than the rest. Their 7% discount to Nav is 26% when all applied against the private portfolio. Their listed stocks which are about 72% of the portfolio are very large and liquid so should be no discount there. SMT's private investments are also the largest of the private companies and in many cases are very unique. If they are at a 26% discount then I think it fair the cos in Moltens portfolio are at 50-55% discount as they are much much smaller and earlier in their progression. I think that is what market is doing, taking its lead from the bigger names. The big guys will lead the recovery and we have seen some of that already with SMT but the thing that could drive things lower is if the US Semi and Tech sector rolls over. semis had a bad day yesterday and the unprofitable tech and even the large tech. My advise is be careful when your conclusion tells you the market is wrong. Of course it gets things wrong but it is generally more right than wrong. If you take out 3i and Bridgepoint from your analysis the average PE discount to Nav is 34%. Yes, Molten one of worst. It has a terrible share register and i think annoys a lot of people with the way the external carry valuation has gone relative to the share price. That is a real slap in the face to shareholders. If I wa an IPO investor I would be furious. Also AVI, the specialist in discount trusts has been a seller recently from 7m shares last Autumn to lessthan 5m. Care is warranted, its not as cheap as it might appear.

I politely disagree. If you value the Pref correctly at say balance sheet date, its value is the liquidation value plus a call option on the ordinary share value at the conversion strike on IPO or takeover. It is not the value as if everything was converted because that conversion is contingent on IPO or takeover. Also most Prefs have no voting rights, how do you value this aspect? very subjectively I would suggest. The one thing market hates is uncertainty and it will always apply a big discount if you cant answer the basics. As Molten signs NDAs they cant answer in detail and hence we get the fluff they come out with when asked. You seriously have to question whether this information asymmetry is appropriate for a listed vehice? How can the hired help know more than the owners?

The valuation asymmetry will never be solved until the terms of the alphabet of Rref shares is standardised. There is absolutely no way anyone outside the negotiations can value the different prefs until you know the precise terms. Even theterms of a pref A from co. 1 can be different to Co.2. If it going to be held by a listed entity the allowed terms need to be standardised, otherwise the valuation debate is impossible. most retail investors dont understand the range of terms on these Prefs. You cant just assume they are all converted and value them the same as they are valued as at a particular date be that semi or annual.

On 3/2017, first full AR after IPO, Nav was 3.70 per share. After Forward and share placing I estimate it as 6.71, growth of 81.43% or 8.88% CAGR.

The external carry was £5.6M at 3/2017 and now its £95.3M thats a CAGR of 49.83% p.a. The share options CAGR is 46.7%p.a.

Valuations is one part of the story with GROW but the only place there has been real wealth since IPO is to the management. It is an absolute disgrace. The Board and large shareholders are asleep and incompetent. This sort of biased rewards does listed private equity no favours. The relationship between the Board & management is far too cozy. The ISIF is asleep and Blackrock have it stuffed in so many ETFs noone is looking at the fundamentals. Baillie giffords time horizon is now a lifetime for any payoff and so they cant throw stones as they are not performing great. This needs a very fundamental fix. as a shareholder you are really only funding the wealth accumulation of management in a very blatant way. Wakey wakey shareholders.

Just had a look and in 22 perkbox had sales of £39M, up 21% on previous. Grow at same level and pro-forma sales £57m for 2024. Perk valued at £140M thats 2.5x sales. Not the 20,30,40 times of the some of the others. of course I accept the TAM and technology of some of the others much more impressive but again just goes to show private valuation ranges can be vey very wide. For me, 10x is my max as a multiple of turnover, when we get to 20-25 I struggle but then I am more a public market guy.

Yes but molten first invested in perkbox in 2016. The issue with molten is the £128m invested in FY 21 and £311m invested in Fy 22. What does it say that the entity they first invested in 2016 comes out at slightly above breakeven. I have no issue with Molten's valuation per se, as I said earlier they are valuing according to recalibrated recent fund raises but the public markets are just not accepting the private market valuations. Different investors, different valuations and thats where we are.

JPM et all have agreed a £150m RCF against a £1.3bn private equity portfolio, a trained monkey could do that. There is no information content on the appropriate valuation on them putting that facility in place. Auditors no little about valuation in the real world, its not what they do. they check there is a process and valid inputs which as I have explained there can never be as they dont have a long term IV input, so its really driven by comparable markt deals in the private space, or in other words a herd instinct. When you asre in the realm of putting multiples at 20x, 30x, 40x revenue or whatever you want it is not science, it can never be. At the end of day it comes down to what these private market investors are prepared to pay on the funding date for a potentially large TAM.

When you buy a Pref share the value has two components; the liquidation value and the probability of that and a Leap option with strike equal to the conversion price. Valuing that Leap option can never be precise as we have no market implied volatility input. Valuing the Prefs on basis everything is converted is not the correct way to do it because at the date of the report they havent converted. when the FCA do their review this will become more of an issue. This is to say nothing about the differnt priorities of different classes of prefs, can they vote or not, what liquidation preference they have, do they convert 1:1....there are loads of issues and I know that not one shareholder, including Blackrock and Irelands strategic fund has the answers to all this. This is why when you hear Mr Wilkinson talk about valuation it is so vague as he knows he cant answer properly because of NDAs. private company valuation is more fiction than fact im afraid. The last set of accounts from Thought Machine had sales of £42M and an operating loss of £73M. Last valuation was circa £2.2bn. Lets assume 2023 sales are £120M, thats still 20x Sales. Is that the right number? what about 10x, maybe 40x. Who really knows. what I do know is the FCA wont solve the difficulty of the material judgement behind private valuations and therefore it is fickle and when it moves can move a lot. Time might sort everything, but it will take time.