RE: Shareholders own the company7 Mar 2026 14:02
I just hate it when a co. inflicts damage on itself by being totally incapable of communicating a really simple story. Back at the end of 2024 DATA sold 40% of Healthcare at an EV of £1.1bn based on a reported LTM adj. ebitda of £50M or 22x. You might think Inflexion were stupid but I don't think so. Adj. ebitda in FY 25 was £61.8M, a 24% improvement and Healthcare sales in FY 25 were up 12.7% and it has an adj. ebitda margin of 50.1%. That's a fantastic underlying margin and with the growth they have shown, well worth 22x, imo. In fact the reported 22x multiple is 17.8x on their 2025 adj. ebitda outcome, so Inflexion were definitely not done, that was a fair deal and I don't think they will be in the slightest way upset. They will do very well on this investment. As the Non Healthcare margin is essentially half that of Healthcare I use an 8x multiple for valuation and when you run all this through and take off the overhead cost times 10, I get a backward looking FV of £1.58 a share. As its backward looking it does not incorporate the improvements to the margins which are coming in future years as they get the recent acquisitions integrated and get the non Healthcare side much more efficient. If I factor this in, which is not yet visible I easily get north of £2. The fact that the central management team cannot tell this story is shameful. If I was a smart data engineer in DATA I would be pointing the figure at central management incompetence and demanding they do their part. They have proprietary data sets, great margins, yes mostly inorganic growth but so what, its growth and a fabulous return on capital. How can they not sell this story, this is as easy as it gets but yet the HQ clowns make a mess of it. The market is the smartest analyst I know and there is always a reason. They will make excuses and say "yeah, but anything software is out of favour". BS, that is when fabulous IR and communication makes a difference. Wake up central management, do your job or get to hell out of the way! When I was a student one of the books that made the biggest impression on me was R. Moss Kanter's "The Change Masters". In this she essentially advocated throwing the baby out with the bath water as when you want to make a change it is hard and wastes a lot of time identifying the good from the bad. I would like to see this applied to all players in the team selling the DATA story. Of course that will be impossible as the one who must take the vast majority of the blame is Danson himself. He has assembled a brilliant business and is a brilliant strategist but that doesn't make him a good communicator. This business is in DESPERATE need of a great IR director. They will need to be incredibly strong to make it work and should not report to the CFO but be at an equal level. Will that happen, probably not!