Member Info for Senator1

buying this share before much more information on claims is a gamble. Its not informed investing, its not even good trading, its punting plain and simple. I have no issue with anyone punting but to claim this is an investment you can make an informed decesion on is deluded. Its just not possible from the numbers they have presented and my guess is they are reluctant to present the current position is because it is scary, you can see that in the increase in the claims provision. Gamble away, but do not accuse me of being afraid of missing out on being able to get in on Monday. You are way off in your accusation

no it wasn't down over £60M in last Q. To be precise it was don £52.1m in last Q. With £402M gross debt to go there is no chance of clearing the debt in 12 months. And before you waffle about net debt, net debt isnt the right thing to look at as the cash is there to meet the £159m claims provision so they have no spare cash. If they had spare cash do you not think they would buy some of the secured bond. They have to pay down he securitisation facility because they are in default and to get the waiver they agreed all monies on that portfolio repays the debt. You are way out of your league if you think they only have £130M debt remaining, look at slide 16 its there in black and white. The source of the uninformed rubbish is clear

The probability of a dividend in Q3/4 2021 is zero. Higher probability of Georgia winning the Nations Cup

Mark, the securitisation guys only agreeing a short term waiver, 6/7 months while they are still being repaid by about 30-35M in the Q if I remember right is not really encouraging. It tells me they still have their foot on the neck of management and are still worried and not everything is clear to them. While they keep getting cash at the expense of shareholders they will play along. If they didnt, they would have to run the portfolio they are secured on. At the moment the Amigo shareholders pay the wages bill for this. Not surprising they agreed a short term waiver

Hey Seamus, I dont think I could ever say publicly I am ENJOYING England's form but they are a great team, no question. On your cash point just rember that with a claims provision of £159M logically requires £159M of cash otherwise it is a provision without substance. So at the moment Amigo has no "excess" cash. Their only real source of cash is the collections which is funding everything: cash operating expenses, repaying the securitisation and building cash for claims. In the background you then have the £230M plus Bond due in Jan 2024. I cant see these guys allowing any divs until they know they will be repaid which at the moment there is no way it would be repaid if it was Jan next year and thats why it trades at a 30% yield.

If settling 23k VREQ customers results in £53M use of complaints provision and Amigo has 177k customers how can anyone with any seriousness talk about dividends and reduced risk. The growth in claims opened Q2 to Q1 was 400%. Q3 numbers not out yet so no one apart from Amigo know what that looks like and they gave you nothing on the call except one number, they increased the complaints provision by 86.9M from 6.8M in Q1. This is telling you the Q3 numbers will be horrendous as they told you most is for future redress. Madness, delusional to talk about dividends or reduced risk. They have £159M provision for future complaints, if it took £53M to settle 23k customers then using same average this suggests they might have to deal with another 69k customers. The guy on the call who said it looked to him like half the customers, I get that percentage as well. How they can seriously contend that giving redress to half the customers is not a systemic problem is hard to understand at the moment. If I had to pay redress to 5% of my customers or reduce the loan balance I would say I have a systemic problem. At 50% it is a nightmare. The only good thing that has happened recently is that the old guard are gone. The securitisation keeps going down and while it does RBC will keep rolling short term waivers but you cant build a business on this basis. The new guys collaborative approach with FCA/FOS is right as he has no choice. Lots before him have tried to fight with the regulator and it never works. Much better to direct the fight at the CMCs and level the playing field. So far the new guy has invested £50k that I can see. He has a real fight on his hands, I wish him well, I really do

The aggregate Q2/Q1 increase of new cases was near 400%. Q3 numbers not out yet. These case numbers are out of control. There has to be a cost imposed on the CMCs for sponsoring cases. A really high cost where it is shown to be plain wrong and a waste of resources, I suugest £100k for this as this will ensure there is a check process at the CMC and they wont submit bundles of fraudulent claims. If they lose on a claim where borrower exists then they pay £650 and this refunded to Amigo or whoever the lender is. Nominal payment of £100 when they submit claim but the cost really ramps up if they lose. This should be brought in retrospectively to send tough message.
Dont know when FOS publish Q3 numbers but if they are up 4x again or higher then this alone can bring down Amigo. They used £53M to settle 23k cases on VREQ and still feel it necessary to have £159M provision. These numbers tell you everything you need to know. If CMCs dont pay a real cost for time consuming badly researched claims then it is a real problem, the situation is dire

This doesnt include plc and hence the credit provision. Plc above this group of cos

every shareholder should suggest this to their MP and get this legislated quickly. Genuine cases will still get heard but this will put the cowboy CMCs with no diligent process out of business.

CMCs should be required to pay £100 fee for every complaint they sponsor. If claim is rejected they pay an extra £550 which they are forbidden by law from reclaiming from client. This will help clear the backlog as should be applied retrospectively to any claim they submitted in last 12 months so they then have option to drop past claims but continue genuine, diligent claims. This will level the playing field and take pressure off system. As FOS is funded by Treasury this should be legislated immediately. Fraudulent claims should impose £100k liability per claim on CMCs which will wake them up to a diligent process

Cash went from 145M to 140M at end October. In that period they paid out 28M redress and the opex plus interest is another 20M so they collected 43M cash in the 4 months or £11m a month and therefore stock trades at 2 and a half months cash flow. That's cheap if they finally have claims under control. As it looks like they are assuming one in two are claiming it must be close. Hard to reconcile this level of claims with a non systemic problem. This management team and previous must be either stretching the truth or incompetent or both maybe.

47M to redress 23K complaints out of 25.5K BUT the provision has to go back to £155M from the 69 after utilisation. Does this mean complaints are additional 70k odd so total near 100K out of 199k customers AND there is no systemic problem. Who's the idiot? This needs an answer, a proper answer for once from management not the usual repeating what is in writing.

i dont hate him at all, dont know him. I just know his plans didn't make any sense at all, even at the most basic level. Also the idea that 21p wasn't good enough for him but he would purchase up to 20p that just annoyed me

Sum of all complaints Jan 19 to June 2020: 1,746. FOS data only as that is all I have. I suspect the non FOS complaints are small and therefore irrelevant., for now

agreed but as the FOS complaints as a % of customers are small I suspect the rest is even smaller. My point remains the same.

Im giving the total of the category they are in based on figures i have seen for myself. At the moment I have no way to break it down to sub categories as I haven't seen that data. In any event I have been consistent with the denominator so the points remain same. The rest I don't know what you are talking about

Also if you take a 90% upheld rate and assuming payout is twice the average loan that is only £8.1m. These figures don't justify today's price and they are not hard to work out.

sorry last 3, 6 month periods going back to Jan 2019.

Yes your figures correct. Perhaps a more interesting way to look at them though is Amigo represented 0.69% of the Banking & Credit claims July-Dec 2019 and are now 2.57% of a slightly smaller number @45,165 total. Another way, the last 3 month periods total 1,746 claims out of 220K customers is less than 1%. 1,746 @average 5.5k restitution is only 9 million so they look well provided for on these figures. The 5k restitution i got by taking net loans at £553 million divided by 199k customers and multiplying by 2. Yes the growth in claims is large but you have to put it in perspective. A thousand percent of a small number is still a small number. They have a £120 m claims provision against a conservatively calculated liability of £9m based on claims to June and assuming claim is twice the average loan. Anyone saying its going bust is guessing. That conclusion is not in the numbers we have.

The 2 most important bits of data today. 1.) Debt down £29M which means operating cashflow is circa £20M a month (5 for Opex, 15m to reduce debt) and (2.) they are planning to restart lending. That in itself is minor but it means they are close to a permanent solution with RBC as who would go out making new loans with half the debt in default. When this is confirmed it will be a minimum of 20p. I would much rather see them use any "excess cash" to buy the SB that will give the sp another boost. JB refusing 21p and offering UP TO 20p was always a tangible signal of his very confused thinking on this & other matters. The most damming mesure of his expertise is he went from 61% to 0 and ended with nothing. The value destruction he subjected on himself is staggering and require you make a series of mistakes, not just one. Amigo has a chance without him but there is a lot to do. The sp will recover to 20p very quickly now over the next few weeks.