Member Info for Senator1

the accounts speak for themselves its there in black and white

debit P&L, credit provision prat. Most of it in ST, some of it in LT, reflecting expectation of being used. Quoting stuff I bet you don't understand, knob

I have never once said what the share is worth because I genuinely dont know. What I do know is the current situation is technical and should be played as such. Its that simple until JB is out.

Look at the accounts, they are on the website. At end June they said they have £135M cash and of the £117M claims provision they recorded £106M in short term creditors. That means they expect to pay out £106M over the next 12 months. Until they get this under control unfortunately buying shares not an option apart from fact I am sure FCA would not allow them to and reduce the capital base. It is very clear from accounts Amigo is walking a tight rope cash wise. It looks good at end of June if you ignore the liability mgmt and auditors think will be paid over next 12 months. Who here knows more?

There is a big difference between buying at 1 or 10p. For me its risk v reward and for this right now it has to be a 20:1 reward to risk, maybe more. Again why JB more than is absolutely necessary? He is going to see whatever the price.

its purely technical. For now it is NOT about what it's worth, it hasn't been since the JB irrevocable sell.

Im not bitter at all, just giving you a hard, cold, reality check. Its no problem for me if you stay in the Hope club, keep doing that and it will bite you on the ass eventually. For sure.

I have said right from the start that the best strategy for everyone bar JB is the sp goes to 1-2-3p and just sits there until he is out but that can only happen if the low knowledge punting value hunters stop playing. There will be no volatility and everyone will know it arises because of this extraordinary irrevocable sell which in 20 years trading I have never seen before. Once he is out then the sp will find its real value. Why anyone wants to jump the gun I just don't understand as NOBODY knows the value of this share. For example if the securitisation program doesnt get agreement on Friday or some date thereafter, just below half the loan book goes into run down with all cash from these secured loans going to those debt holders until they are fully repaid over 4 years and remember any loan with a complaint on it is dumped back to Amigo shareholders. Anyway, thats one ex of the real uncertainty here, there are others. But believe me last thing this needs is JB returning, then it definitely is over.

Another JB error was that he didnt give the irrevocable sell as a minimum 1% per day and he would be gone all the quicker. He will never again get any institutional support from western europe or the US ever again. Best thing for Amigo is he stays away and lets Amigo sort things out with the FCA, FOS and the banks. If he comes back the banks/debt holders will pull the plug as he has too much reputational damage and they need these providers on side.

Im taking a guess that most here use HL which currently makes you the 7th largest shareholder according to what is public with 5.7M shares. This is the biggest problem with this share as there is only 2 main institutional buyers on record, rest are running away with JB. Will they return with an FCA investigation and all the other stuff and a qualified set of accounts?

Go look up what the UT means, if you can read

stick to poetry, anyone listening to you is a fool. You are wrong on every level

wrong, he had no input, he exercised nothing

Plus last actual trade was 10k at 7.88, rest all just auction mechanics

i read the press release, it says so

CFO didn't buy any shares, the EBT did. He was given under the Deferred Bonus Plan for last year rather than cash. Those are the terms of bonus plan, shares rather than cash, so signals diddly in itself!

A £91M pre tax loss in Q4 alone, £15M more than the £76M revenue driven by £100M for complaints (such a nice round number) and £44M for impairments. Even worse most of the revenue wasn't cash just accrual of interest as cash generated in Q4 was £34M, £10M a month. Buying before you know that they can sort out the securitisation facility by deadline Friday is such a leap of faith, punters only I think

So how much of the £135M so called cash is trapped by the securitisation drawings of £232M. Of the currently monthly cashflow of £23M how much comes from these secured assets? Simple question for the bulls and what might change by Friday?

by up vol, i mean a big jump in vol compared to previous days, double/treble that sort of factor

Today was 4th highest vol day of last 12 months. Last time we had an up vol day it was followed by even stronger up day. So probabilities favour the bulls. 15.47 50 day resistance which has been broken many times in last 12 months. However the 100, now at 19.02 has not been broken in last 12 months. That therefore is where real resistance lies and that makes sense in context of declined offer few weeks ago. So if the results next week are circa break-even with a definite plan for claims with reasonable visibility and a buy back plan on the debt marked at 50p on the £ I think the market will wait till JBs gone or nearly gone and it could get interesting. The hold back factor is the 1% which is hard to call , 190 m shares to come is still a lot of shares.