Member Info for Senator1

incorrect, capital is for defaults. Cash for callable liabilities. These are facts, in 2008 and 2019

The only think I know that is certain when you wait is death.

You have picked one asset, cash, and attribute its value to shareholders without considering the liability stack ranking ahead of shareholders. That is nonsensical. Cash is held by banks (and they are required to do so) for one reason only; to meet depositor claims or what banks estimate might be required over the next 12 months. In itself has nothing to do with equity valuation. I have previously explained a rationale e3.5bn equity valuation based on my estimated RoTE. If I add "fear" to the equation I could go much lower. Market, for liquid stocks, is rarely irrational or manipulated. How could it be, it just reflects the participants backing their view. Yes the big boys can have the small players run through weight of money but thats the way it is. If thats not understood thats hardly the "markets" fault.

The market will take anyone's money and gladly do so. From your cash comment it is clear to me you do not have the basic knowledge required to trade these shares. The best advise I could give you is step aside, leave it to the pros. It will only be luck if you win. You don't even have the basic knowledge required for this game

Next support I can see is 2.46. At that price its worth 2.6bn or over 5x earnings after that it is e2 and that will be very strong support. The problem at the moment is markets are low on volume and so things get exaggerated and markets overshoot. Who in NY or London or Tokyo would step in to an Irish share when even we don't understand full implications of Brexit. For that reason alone only the very brave would step in now. its not cheap enough for the big money bottom feeders either

e2.9 would be good and there I might bite, st the politics

MS reduced their PT from 7 to 4.6. How could anyone have confidence in an analyst that reduced their PT 34%. Demonstrates clearly the danger of relying on these big names for your analysis. I think this is incompotent. There are many ways to select a stock but relying on others for your analysis is a sure way to end up broke. I think any analyst who puts out a recommendation should be required to have material skin in the game and then they might treat the platform they have at names like MS with more respect. Totally ridiculous

Davy reduced their attributable to e502M for 2019 and e593M for 2020. Their numbers (now) not a million miles from me for 2019. RoTE 6.8% (personally I prefer RoE 6.2%). I was generous giving a 7x multiple for a 6s return. e3.5bn is generous without Brexit, with Brexit its an early christmas gift. Bulls beware.

I remember Birg shares at 6 cents = e1.80. I myself traded them at 8 cents. So by my calcs they are up 211% since the depths of the crisis, not down 3%.
I think your enthusiasm for this share is clouding your analysis

e20=e21.6bn market cap for a Bank making e500-600M for ord shareholders, 40x. Whatever you are smoking or drinking I want some. Not in my lifetime!

every seller needs a buyer so keep going. i have put numbers behind my view and the right comparisons. i don't guess or fly at 10,000 feet in my analysis. Europe's banks are out of favour with negative rates which is likely to increase after the Us reduces rates. A rationale trader would not step in yet as its not cheap enough if your view is to the end of the year. looking to 20/21 before we get an answer on Brexit is guessing. I don't guess, the market is too cruel to play games with.
As I said though, every seller needs a buyer and a MARKET needs 2 views.

I could make a rational case for low 3s, high 2 would be irrational or extreme reaction to Brexit. If 2019 attributable to ord shareholders is 500M or so, apply 7x multiple that is 3.5bn market cap, so that is another 15-20% down if the market is rationale. If we are in the no deal rhetoric, where the politicians will love the limelight then we could go below 3. From hard experience I have learned to never assume the politicians wouldn't speak without thinking added to by the media taking things out of context to make it more newsworthy.
Only the brave would step in now, too many unknowables

The market is one of the most "real" things you will find because it involves participants putting their money where there mouth is. Anyone can waffle

Birg p/e is not 5-6x for 2019 by an reasonable estimate. The FTSE 100 is not the right comparison, it is the sx7e and that is 8.04x and relative to this Birg is a turn above the average. With Brexit on the horizon is that warranted? I think the answer to that is easy.

I think that is selective editing. Im not an investor I don't hold my view steady for a year/ years on end. If you were diligent you would see my more recent post in Dec 2018 said I thought 4 would be tested.
The point Im making is based on what we know it is not cheap. If your view is years in the future maybe it is but over a time-frame we can make an educated assessment, it is not. Thats all Im saying

Birg did e195M for ordinary shareholders in the first half and said NIM has headwinds. Yes there were one offs of e61M. So lets say it does e295M in 2H (195+61+ plus another 39 from cost and loan growth), that's a total of e490M. Its market cap today is e4.4bn that's a P/E of 8.97x. For a RoTE of c.7%, its hardly undervalued and thats saying nothing about what Brexit may or may not do. Just wanted to address point that Birg is so cheap. Maybe if your crystal ball takes you to 2020/21 but based on what we now know you cant really say that based on facts. I think it is closer to being expensive than cheap?

sorry mislead you, attributable to ord shareholders for half year is e195M after tax charge of e89M and NCIs of e31M. That compares with e350m same period last year, down 44%

e376 after the e79M but does not include e61m non core bring statutory PBT to e315M. From this take off tax, AT1 div, Pref div and you have attrib to shareholders which is about e254M

Be careful, its not proposed, it is accrued, big difference

RoTE of 6.5% and maybe e600M of FY profits currently trades at 55% of Tnav and less than 8x on earnings according to other Euro banks (SX7e). Bank of Ireland has Brexit to contend with and with second half Tnav of 7.88 I think it is trading more or less in line with 7e.
I think the price can be explained. I think the more interesting question is are all Euro banks cheap?