Member Info for Senator1

not true, you can see that by JB reporting each 1%. The rules are same for buyers and sellers

The TR1 notification is mandatory since June 2017 . There are limited exceptions. Don't believe a serious institutional investor would not comply as that would clearly be misleading the market which would open up civil and now criminal proceeding by other shareholders adversely affected.

this share is being driven by headless chickens punting and so no one can call it. If it wasn't for this quick retail money it would go to 1p and stuff the IRREVOCABLE sale order until its done. That's what logically should happen at least until the results update. Will it? I have no idea as who can call what punting of a couple of hundred grand will do, turned over 10-15 times a day. Its the blind playing with the blind, nothing more than that and I have no idea where the blind will go nor does anyone else if the blind himself doesn't know

this thing is under the microscope, that would be seriously dumb

no its not, as they are not allowed to do what you suggested. There has been no new TR1 so nobody new over 3% and those over 3 haven't moved to 4. You have 24 hours to report so the suggestion (by somebody else) that you find out later is not the reality. The 35-40m vol is Benamors 4.75M and the rest is a couple of million shares (£2-300K) going round the houses punting. Nobody serious will buy this share until there is more clarity on the claims as nobody right now can value the impact of this, probably not even mgmt, hence no inside buying. Punt away though but dont pretend its based on any logical basis, technical or otherwise

I know its in a closed period now but you got to ask if this was such obvious value (a 2/3/4/5 timer) why is there no insider buying. There has been nothing material since Sept last year. How can anyone on this board know more than the insiders? Before they give a meaningful signal everyone else is guessing/punting. In 2 weeks they will be allowed to buy shares, lets see what they do. I suspect Wilke and Paton are also sellers in addition to the 1% man

I suspect Benamors broker using an algo doing 1% of traded vol to limit of 4.7m shares. With an irrevocable sell order over 46% of the company this sp should just go settle at 1p until he is down to his last couple of percent and make him pay for his stupidity. Anything else is just punting and cant be explained by fundamental or technical analysis as they have no place with an irrevocable sale on 46% of the company

He has entertained it every day so far, getting nowhere near 20p for his daily 4.7M shares. Today for ex he got under 15p. The market jumped to say adios when it was clear he was going below control and telling it was fed up with his involvement. If the market has any sense it will wait until he sells his very last 4.7M shares before it reflects even the run down value. Before that, wishing for 20 plus makes no sense

If he doesnt follow through on the irrevocable 1% per day he will open himself up to lawsuits for misleading the market and he might even go to jail if its considered a criminal offense so 4.7M shares from him will go through every day until he is done, that is a certainty, no question

There is nothing to advise on. Go back to the strategy that was in place before Benamor re-joined the Board. Work with regulator and Ombudsman and find the ground that allows Amigo to keep their customers inclusive in the financial world. The growth in customer numbers shows the need is there. Once they sue Benamor they have no further contact and he looks after himself. He has shown to be unsuitable to be on any Board of a public company using twitter to express his frustrations. This is all just navel gazing and needs to decisively stop. Persuade Hamish Paton to stay, now that Benamor out of picture and get on with it

Sue Benamor for a couple of hundred million. That will shut him up and let him look after his own shareholding. Mgmt get back to the day job and find a structure acceptable to the regulators that always you to service a customer base clearly not well served by the mainstream.

Bringing Crawford back to advise adds more expense to a pointless exercise for Benamor to change his mind again. Only an idiot would engage with this process. Who wants to talk to the monkey when the organ grinder makes the decisions. Pathetic, confused leadership

Given the breakdown in communication between Benamor and Amigo can someone explain to me why Amigo is wasting its time trying to sell Benamor's shares and running the costs of doing so. Let Benamor run his own process and get the mgmt back to running the company instead of being distracted by this waste of time. No matter who Amigo or RBC uncover they are Benamor's shares and clearly only he will decide. Idiotic waste of time and expenses

He really is an idiot. He cant take it private after stating his intention to sell or he would definitely be sued on any attempt to buy at these levels or anything near it. He has boxed himself in. YTD its down 60%, so £200 million suit at a minimum I am sure is coming his way

Given Benamor erroneous twitter post I expect Amigo to file a lawsuit against him after close for the destruction in value today. Attacking his other wealth might make him think twice about his twitter posts. Also Amigo should stop paying for a sale process for his shares. If he wants to sell his shares let him foot the bill, not partially by the other 49% shareholders. Amigo running around trying to sell his shares given the current breakdown is a waste of time and money. Get back to working with the regulators to making it a sustainable business. Needs leadership

Problem with Birg is the structural hedge. For FY 20 it is going to eat up all the increased income from e2bn of new lending meaning the only profitability growth will come from costs down another e50M or so, there will be no top line NII growth. Whats worse is the impact of the structural hedge is going to get worse as more old hedges roll off. If you were hedging e33bn today at today's 7 yr swap rate (-0.26%) it would cost you e85M p.a., double the current e40M cost. To counter that would need e4bn new lending so they are running fast to go nowhere and the only lever they have is costs or pray that rates go up. All the time they make a return of less than 10% (6.8% at moment) they destroy equity value. When you consider how leveraged a bank is, to make 6.8% return or even 8%. Is it any wonder these bank share prices are what they are. What is the trigger for a re-rate? e50M p.a. cost reductions? I think not. The 4.6% dvd yield is what saves them from a very ugly downward spiral I think because there is really nothing management can do to change the game

It will now break 3 I think and maybe make mid 2s to find support. 3 is a big psychological support if it breaks that hang on to your hat. Rationality rolls over to emotion.

There are 26 members of the 7e, only 7 have RoTEs greater than 10% as estimated by analysts. The median is 8.75%, the simple average 8.23%. As a return on equity for a leveraged investment (which a bank is) that isn't good enough and hence professional investors avoiding the space.

The problem with Birg, AIB and many other European banks is their RoTE doesn't cover their cost of equity. This means for every euro you give them they are destroying value for shareholders. Moreover they are quite a long way from their CoE. Birg RoTE for 2020 is est at circa 7.5%, their cost of equity must be minimum 10%. With NIM under pressure from rates going even lower in September why give them your capital to loose more value. That's the problem in simple terms. Whats the trigger to buy? This argument that they are cheap is illusory. By investing in the share you are willingly reducing your wealth not adding to it. That's what the pros realize and as such this could go much lower if Draghi reduces rates in Sept and we also have Brexit noise. Its not brave to buy now its foolish punting

The SX7e trades at 7.23x and 6.83x for 19 and 20 respectively and 50% of BV. Leaving aside Brexit this is roughly where Birg is.
So why is Birg cheap and why would any Bank that has the capital buy Birg. Their best trade is to buy their own shares, as a shareholder that what I would vote for first.