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I guess it depends what the immediate intentions are. It may be a case of identifying potential acquisitions / JV’s and testing the tailings to see if they would be a suitable proposition. There would be plenty of groundwork to do before jumping in and building copper concentrators etc. I think if we want to press home the early mover advantage it makes sense to do the groundwork whilst metals prices are cheap and we are in a better negotiating position.

“ I’ve just done a quick ball park calculation of earnings for this year based on current prices
PGM’s: US$51 million (no contribution from eastern limb and 48,000 oz inc. 4,000 from Windsor)
Copper: US$34 million (production cost US$4,500 / tonne, can’t remember where I got that from!)
Cobalt: US$53 million (production from August, 80% of Cobalt price for contained Cobalt, assuming full design capacity, no production cost included)

That’s US$138 million before adding chrome. Still need clarification on how close to design capacity we are likely to be with Cobalt. Hopefully we should get more detailed information when the numbers for FY22 are released.”

As a comparison I calculated what the next years earnings might have looked like using the metals prices from the first half of 2022 and it was over US$200 million…. Just shows how far we have come!

It states in the annual report that they are preparing to make applications for renewal so at best they will have been recently submitted. 90 days would be after the expiry date and I don’t think they would allow that to happen! They must be confident of getting things done in good time.

I saw in an article yesterday that the findings from the Cadastre audit will be presented at the next cabinet meeting (last one , the 13th of the year, was end of June so there should be another due pretty soon). Once that is approved they will re-open the license approval. I don’t think that would affect renewals just new applications but you never know. It will be interesting to see if there are any big changes to the Cadastre once it reopens.

https://twitter.com/Jubilee_Metals/status/1547180845668122624?s=20&t=C9mDj68LjwYCveVH2cryzw

I’ve just done a quick ball park calculation of earnings for this year based on current prices
PGM’s: US$51 million (no contribution from eastern limb and 48,000 oz inc. 4,000 from Windsor)
Copper: US$34 million (production cost US$4,500 / tonne, can’t remember where I got that from!)
Cobalt: US$53 million (production from August, 80% of Cobalt price for contained Cobalt, assuming full design capacity, no production cost included)

That’s US$138 million before adding chrome. Still need clarification on how close to design capacity we are likely to be with Cobalt. Hopefully we should get more detailed information when the numbers for FY22 are released.

This is from the WHI note:
“Cobalt is production of cobalt hydroxide containing ~20% cobalt – so roughly 1.6kt/yr of cobalt contained from 2024 onwards. We believe that Jubilee will receive 80% of the cobalt price for the contained cobalt in the cobalt hydroxide.”

They were anticipating an annual production of 5300 tonnes / annum of Cobalt Hydroxide from 2024 so the design capacity of 1200 tonnes / annum may well be the contained Cobalt rather than the Cobalt Hydroxide. I have emailed the company to ask for clarification but I don’t have a great record of getting replies to questions…. Let’s see!

Another thing I spotted in the WHI note:

“ Jubilee also has access to the Mufulira s l a g s from the Mufulira smelter, which
contain significant amounts of cobalt (pers. comm. Jubilee). These require a technical solution as the cobalt is tied up in a silica glass, but recovery may be achievable. “

I had speculated that we may be getting involved in the Black Mountain dump but must have missed that it was written there all along! If they can successfully process that it could be massive, with copper average grade of 1.2% and Cobalt up to 4.5%.

I just came across this recent startup company which is looking to get involved the the tailings reprocessing industry

https://www.envirogoldglobal.com/

They have projects planned in Tasmania and Newfoundland at the moment although not yet active. It just shows how important our first mover advantage could prove to be as the industry profile becomes higher and more players look to get involved.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CMRS/ev-metals-strategic-alliance-and-portfolio-update-eovmovzxcdyj2lv.html

Interesting update from Caerus today. It seems that they are looking at other opportunities with EVM and re-assessing the Cypriot assets. They are planning a strategic review with findings expected later in the year so I doubt we will be getting involved any time soon if at all. I think we have plenty to be getting on with in SA and Zambia anyway so no bad thing if we don’t go ahead with that in my opinion, especially with a falling copper price in the near term.

From Jito Kayumba, Zambian Presidential advisor:

“Zambia has a goal to take its Copper production from the current 850,000 tonnes per year to 3 million tonnes.
This is ambitious and audacious but certainly achievable over the next 10 years. What must and will be done includes but isn't limited to the following:
1. Unlocking more expansion from Kansanshi to Lubambe, and beyond
2. Investing in Mopani's massive potential
3. Resolving KCM and Investing in Konkola Deep Mining Project (KDMP)
4. Actualisation of investment commitments in the line up of greenfield and brownfield mines (leading global players have already acquired rights, with some in the process)
5. Aggressive exploration (currently in progress)
6. Processing of tailings
7. Resolving conflicts, malpractice and ensuring transparency at the Mining cadastre in order to legitimately issue new rights to deserving enterprises.”

Number 4…. “With some in process” :-)

From Jito Kayumba, Zambian Presidential advisor:

“Zambia has a goal to take its Copper production from the current 850,000 tonnes per year to 3 million tonnes.
This is ambitious and audacious but certainly achievable over the next 10 years. What must and will be done includes but isn't limited to the following:
1. Unlocking more expansion from Kansanshi to Lubambe, and beyond
2. Investing in Mopani's massive potential
3. Resolving KCM and Investing in Konkola Deep Mining Project (KDMP)
4. Actualisation of investment commitments in the line up of greenfield and brownfield mines (leading global players have already acquired rights, with some in the process)
5. Aggressive exploration (currently in progress)
6. Processing of tailings
7. Resolving conflicts, malpractice and ensuring transparency at the Mining cadastre in order to legitimately issue new rights to deserving enterprises.”

I think we have number 6 covered!

We are hardly the only company they have cut the target price for, there is a long list. More to do with the threat of recession and falling metals prices than anything to do with the company I think. They are also still recommending us as a buy with a 20p target.

You need to follow the other party in order for them to message you on Twitter.

Ella AND Boris mentioned on my thread…. I feel soiled.

https://seisnav.blogspot.com/2022/07/arc-minerals-in-kalahari-copperbelt.html

Here is the direct link to that blog post, I think I posted a link to the version I was editing before.

https://seisnav.blogspot.com/2022/07/arc-minerals-in-kalahari-copperbelt.html

https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/3862112926190352983/5797109804799588907?hl=en-GB

I've started a blog post for Botswana. It's just a map of the geological interpretation of our area at the moment but I think it helps illustrate how our licenses fit with the known deposits.

If you are interested in reading more about the geology this is where I got the map and cross section from:
https://mountainscholar.org/bitstream/handle/11124/78957/Hall_mines_0052N_10199.pdf?sequence=1)

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/deep-south-to-acquire-up-to-80-of-three-copper-exploration-licences-in-the-heart-of-the-zambia-copper-belt-301581492.html

So much for a dip in copper price affecting exploration!

We need a reddit style action to organise some co-ordinated buying... that would flush the shorters out :-)

I do agree this is organised to drag the price down. The big guys know the story, they aren't stupid, but the want to get the shares on the cheap and they will do it anyway they can.

It would be very tempting to use some of what I expect to be very substantial profit on ARCM to go to court to get Ella's details from LSE. He deserves a damned good thrashing.

It's always about money. They will either be looking to get cheaper shares or are shorting and hoping to make money that way. Drilling in Botswana could be announced at any time in my opinion, but I'd be surprised if it's not within the next week or two. That will be the main focus while we wait for Anglo to announce the deal has been officially finalised.

I've had Diamond Geazer on filter because it's pretty obvious (to me at least) that it's just another deramper account. Just thought I'd see what he's up to.... trying to suggest we are still far away from any activity to discourage any buying. Total rubbish. Back on filter.