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I guess that with the system already fully in production when it was shut down, whatever was in the pipeline had to be removed in it’s part processed state. Maybe it made more sense to sell it off rather than re-process it later.

I’ve updated my spreadsheets for H2 2021 and H1 2022, tweaking the PGM split so that the estimated basket price better fits with the reported number from H2 2021. The Rhodium % has been slightly increased to reflect the higher Rhodium content from the Eastern Limb and Palladium decreased by the same amount.

H2 2021: https://tinyurl.com/msdcfxd9
H1 2022: https://tinyurl.com/37p5v2wy

Some interesting things jump out:
From H2 2021, it looks like the 6000 ‘in-process’ ounces were sold off pretty much at cost, with all of the earnings coming from the fully processed ounces. To me that makes the performance more impressive than it might have seemed at the time. The extra ounces were there essentially just to make up the numbers.

From H1 2022, I applied the same revised PGM split and just updated the average PGM prices. You can see that there is a large discrepancy between estimated and reported earnings, of almost US$11.5 million. As I mentioned previously, I believe this might be due to more ‘in-process’ ounces being sold off during the Inyoni ramp up. Can anyone think of another explaination? If this is the case then we should expect much improved numbers in future.

Also, based on the cobalt revenue and price at the time, I estimate they must have sold approximately 7 tonnes… not bad considering this was just from testing.

Another thing to note, I believe the transport costs are ‘per ounce’, ie, they should be applied to all ounces, not just a percentage coming from the Eastern Limb. If you take total transport cost and divide that by the quoted Cost / ounce the number is slightly larger than the total PGM ounces produced.

And again….

https://tinyurl.com/3hvpf5ah

https://www.***************************/jubilee-metals-group-deliver-on-two-very-significant-strategies-video/4121077045

“45,000 ounces from inyoni”
“Roan at 90% capacity this week”

HD, try reading the RNS again… we do have saleable cobalt… we sold it! Considering they were just doing some testing and not a production circuit I would say that US$441,000 is very promising.

Are you sure you are not bi-polar? Just 2 days ago you were shouting about a very very conservative US$200 million in earnings for next year, now the whole company is a disaster!

Contact the company yourself if you have any questions, as we are still within the defined exclusivity period I don’t see that they are required to inform shareholders or anyone else of the details of what’s happening. An RNS is only required if its information which materially might affect the share price.

DRB I’m going to write to the company to see if we can get any clarification on that but judging on past efforts I’m not expecting a response! Yes if that does turn out to be the case then we should expect a significant increase in PGM earnings for the current period… another opportunity for Leon to drop the T-bomb…. TREMENDOUS!!

As has been said multiple time here recently, some of our licences are due for renewal shortly, the Zambian Cadastre department has been closed for auditing for several months and so no licences could be processed. The audit is now completed and the department should reopen ‘soon’. The JV will not be signed off until license renewal and / or re-configuration has been completed. In my opinion if the department had not been closed then we would have already been drilling by now!

Sometimes I feel like a goldfish swimming around in a bowl seeing the same discussions going on here day after day :-)

I use average PGM prices for the period which is why I guess we differ on Rhodium price, most of the other numbers are very similar to what I was using. My average Rhodium price was 17,175 and the basket is US$2,086. If you look at the breakdown for the previous period to Dec 31 2021, you can see that the basket price for the fully processed ounces was very similar US$2,073 but the in-process ounces were sold much cheaper at US$581, giving an overall value of US$1632 / ounce. For the current period it is quoted as US$1586 / ounce. The only conclusion that makes sense to me is that the same thing has happened again.

Yes you can ignore the sheet I linked to, we need a bit more guidance on cobalt to come up with anything sensible. I was just setting up the sheet with the intention of updating it after the results came out, unfortunately we are non the wiser regarding cobalt! It's my understanding that there are tailings at Sable from Glencore that were brought from DRC so there may be more cobalt that expected.... we will have to wait a few months to find out I think.

Nice summary Aricore. I've been looking at the numbers for PGM earnings and something didn't make sense to me. The basket should be much higher than the earnings figures indicate despite the increased costs. By my reckoning it should be closer to US$2,100 (average rhodium price was significantly higher for the period) before adjusting for processing / transport costs.

My feeling is that they may have released some in-process PGM ounces at a much lower basket price, in order to meet the expected number of ounces for the period. That's what happened during the previous period due to Inyoni shutdown and it may have happened again during the ramp up. That is the only way I can reconcile the lower earnings / ounce figure quoted.

It's annoying if that is the case and they haven't indicated it in the RNS but on the other hand we should expect to see much improved PGM earnings going forward.

It would be nice to get clarification on that point.

Yawn.

And yet you apparently remain heavily invested... why exactly is that? Assuming you haven't sold up already and you are just here for the friendly conversation?

If I had the low opinion of management that Clowney does in a company which he claims to be heavily invested… I’d be giving myself a serious talking to!

Just going through the numbers... I see that the total transport costs from Eastern Limb is US$3,120,000 and the transport cost per ounce is US$147 so dividing one by the other should give the number of ounces from the Eastern Limb should it not?
3,120,000 / 147 = 21,224 ounces which is slightly more than the number of ounces sold in the period, 21,140.

That would imply that either ALL of the feed is from the eastern limb or they have averaged out the cost across both feeds... not sure I'm any the wiser!

Hi BB2,

I don’t think the PGM basket value has been stated in the RNS, I use the values stated in the WH Ireland research note for the PGM split, apply the net smelter pay reduction factor for each element and then use the vales from the Platinum Matthey website to calculate average sales values over the required period. I agree, an average value stated in the RNS would be helpful but we are unlikely to see that.

Yes i agree it’s a bit odd to be using cobalt to offset copper production costs, especially when cobalt earnings could eventually exceed copper! I assume this is a short term measure due to the high copper production costs, presumably economies of scale will eventually bring that down.

Not going to address my point about the PGM basket price? You clearly want to paint a bad picture of JLP but you are using a totally unrealistic basis for comparison. Disingenuous to say the least.

Thanks DRB83, yes I’ll take a good look through the latest numbers and come up with revised numbers later. It’s slightly confusing that they are choosing to use chrome and cobalt to offset PGM and copper production costs but I will adjust my sheet to show the same thing.

Yes slightly disappointing that the Roan ramp up is still ongoing but this is the first time they have done this and it’s obviously taking longer than anticipated. They were at 65% in mid July, 80% by first week of August, so I would anticipate the ramp up should be close to design capacity by mid September. Leon says copper production is expected to accelerate in H2 so for the time being I will stick with his forecast of 10,000 tonnes for the year (down from 12,000 due to late start up).

As Leon says, they plan the cobalt start up once they have fully ramped up copper, to ensure a stable feed. I’m not expecting a huge amount of cobalt production in this half if that’s the case. I wasn’t assuming zero production costs on cobalt, just waiting on confirmation on what they are. Again will need to peruse the numbers more fully.

“ As I predicted back in Sep 2021, the FY21/22 results would be considerably lower”

That hardly took a genius to predict as that was when the PGM basket dropped back from it’s all time highs… You know as well as I do that judging this last years results based on a massive spike in PGM prices the previous year is hardly a fair comparison. Still don’t let the truth get in the way of a good story eh? :-)

I got those production cost figures from the company update on 16th May, in the ‘further information’ section:

“ The increased throughput and production rates of the integrated Inyoni Facility has the added benefit of further dilution of cost to cushion the current inflationary pressure on operating costs. Cost per PGM ounce produced excluding transport cost is US$ 669 (transport cost currently US$198 per PGM ounce) and when fully accounting for the chrome by-product production credits results in an effective cost per PGM ounce produced of below US$ 450 (excluding transport cost). Jubilee's targeted eastern limb PGM expansion strategy will significantly reduce transport cost of feed material from this region while expanding overall PGM production. Jubilee is in advanced discussions to secure an existing mothballed PGM processing footprint capable of being repurposed by Jubilee.”

Here is my calculation for the full year 2023 earnings based on current prices. If you see anything that you think is incorrect then please let me know and I’ll check it. I’ll update again once we have further info from Leon, this is just a sanity check to avoid any glaring errors!

https://tinyurl.com/2f9u996a

I haven’t included anything for PGM’s from the Eastern Limb in the final numbers but you can see that for every 1,000 ounces from that feed source we could add roughly US$270,000. Once we know the actual breakdown I’ll add that.

For Cobalt, I have not included any production costs. There will be some associated costs even if we expect them to be minimal. From what I understand, the cobalt is precipitated out of solution as cobalt hydroxide and that is the final product, for which we receive 80% (according to WHI) of the price for the contained cobalt. I’ve made that assumption in my calculations.