Member Info for SeisNav

From the WHI research note:
“ We believe that Jubilee will receive 80% of the cobalt price for the contained cobalt in the cobalt hydroxide.”

I wrote to the company a while back to try and get clarification on that but response was there none!

My calculations are also for the whole suite of metals. Perhaps you can provide details as requested earlier by Billy and we can see how you arrive at that number?

I would say US$200 million is a massive over estimate based on current prices. Even if we achieve close to the design capacity of 1200 tonnes/annum of cobalt (which is an unknown right now) I would put the figure at closer to US$150 million. Is there any point in trying to forecast that far in advance though really? In the short term we don’t know what is going to happen with metals prices. In the longer term we know prices are almost certain to increase substantially as supply is squeezed and demand increases… that can only be a good thing for JLP and its shareholders.

Very curious time to announce you are selling shares… that’s all I’m saying ;-)

In my view the key thing to look out for is the renewal of our Zaco licenses, nothing is likely to be finalised until that has been done. With the Zambian Cadastre department having been closed for auditing for the last few months that couldn’t be done, but the audit is completed and things should start happening again pretty soon. Once that has been finalised the JV could happen at any time after that.

At the peak of the PGM prices in April / May 2021, Rhodium accounted for about 61% of the total basket price, it currently accounts for about 51%. So yes, it’s definitely the main driver at the moment.

Mikie / Jonah,

Here’s a plot with SLP included as well as physical Platinum and Palladium prices:

https://tinyurl.com/whhpyn4w

I tend to think you are right Mikie, JLP and SLP follow pretty much the same trend which, as you say, indicates JLP share price is being driven solely by PGM prices, with little or nothing built in for Cu and Co at the moment.

My calculations indicate that PGM earnings for the last period should be close to double the previous period and Cu production should be multiples of the previous period despite the ramp up. If that doesn’t have a positive impact on the SP I’d be surprised! Anyway hopefully this week will bring some news and we can see where the truth lays.

Just to illustrate the point, here's a plot of Jubilee's SP with Rhodium price (percentage change on the y axis). I've used Rhodium as it's the biggest contributor to the basket price but Platinum and Palladium follow a similar trend. There is a clear correlation between the two.

https://tinyurl.com/5n8wuvrj

The massive SP rise was due to PGM production increase combined with a massive rise in PGM prices. Similarly the fall in PGM prices and a drop in PGM production combined to affect our SP negatively. What is likely to happen when we announce increased PGM production for the last period? I’m sure we can all join the dots.

The percentage lost to Northams will be minimal going forward, I don’t see why that should be a factor affecting investment. If they are targeting 48,000 oz/year and 44,000 is from Inyoni then we stand to loose about 3% through the JV, hardly a big deal.

I don’t know where you saw the Eastern limb announcement was imminent but the last I saw said they were ‘in advanced negotiations’ with no timeline indicated. There was also no guarantee that the deal would progress. When they are able to make an announcement I’m sure they will. Assuming the Eastern limb deal goes ahead I would guess the JV to supplement Inyoni production would then be dropped once production starts.

Now that Roan is completed I would guess that they are already working on the Northern strategy, especially long lead time items coming from China and elsewhere. I’m comfortable to let them get on with it. Hopefully we will get news of plans / progress in the next update.

Nice to see Ella ramping up the nonsense in proportion to the share price rise :-) So obvious.

It takes time to build a company. They have gone from bare earth to self constructing a 12, 000 Tonnes Cu / Year facility in just over a year. During a pandemic. With worldwide transport problems. During that time they have also upgraded our PGM capacity and reliance on 3rd parties.

With all that experience and without the problems of the last couple of years I’m sure the next stage will progress even faster.

If you’re bored of looking at the share price I’d suggest actually looking at what has been achieved in that time. Personally when it comes to this share I intend to have the patience of a saint.

Another point to remember regarding last years numbers, in order to achieve the 50,000 oz guidance they sold off 6000 oz of ‘in process’ stock at only 28% of the US$/oz value. That had a pretty big impact on the H2 numbers as well, something which won’t be the case in future.

Even the name, Alby Tross, gives away the intention that they want to be an albatross for Arc… how stupid can you get?! To be honest I’d blocked them ages ago and they blocked me :-) It’s clearly winding someone up that Ruffles is giving us accurate updates and they can’t do anything about it.

Abby is the derampers answer to Ruffles :-)

Just a twit on Twitter.

From the perspective of someone who doesn’t know the details of the company, what do they see? That we are a PGM / Chrome producer and that our production numbers were well down in the previously reported figures. They probably have no idea why the numbers were down only that they were. I’ve read reports from ‘stock pickers’ reviewing JLP and they say exactly that. They don’t see copper or cobalt production in the last set of numbers so why should they expect to see them in future unless they research the company?

We know the reasons why PGM’s were down and that we expect a decent recovery, we know that copper should now be at full production and we will soon be a cobalt producer. Once those numbers start to appear on the bottom line rather than just as promises then I’m sure we will get wider market attention.

Given the recent news from Caerus I don’t think we will be seeing any movement on that front for a while (read the recent RNS if you haven’t already).

As for new agreements, tailings etc, just because we haven’t heard anything doesn’t mean nothing is going on. It’s not that long since they put together the global strategy team so to go from zero to announcing new projects is not going to happen overnight. They need to identify possible hubs where they have access to multiple dumps (as is the case in SA and Zambia), they need to talk to the owners, they need to sample the dumps to see if they are suitable for processing…. It’s not going to be a quick process in my opinion.

As Peggy likes to monitor the share price in real time it’s probably good to note that it’s currently 40% higher than when he (allegedly) sold out in despair!

As the saying goes, it’s better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. :-)

We have already been informed via email that all the various work-streams are being done simultaneously, not one and then the other. It’s highly likely that progress has been held up by the closure of the Cadastre Department for auditing, our Zaco licenses are due for renewal and things are not going to be agreed until that has been done. The audit has now been completed and things seem to be progressing again, one of the Zaco licenses is showing a recent change which suggests to me that renewal is underway.

Ruffles, our very reliable source, is suggesting that drilling will be underway by late summer / early autumn and I don’t see any reason why that shouldn’t still be the case.

In the meantime I think we will get confirmation of the final Casa payments pretty soon and then there’s the drilling in Botswana to get underway most likely within the next few weeks.

It’s noticeable that the Twitter presence has really stepped up since the new Chairman was appointed. I’m not sure the Tweets are necessarily adding anything meaningful at the moment but it’s maybe a sign that Ollie wants to see more investor engagement by the company, which is definitely something we would all appreciate.

I think they are getting concerned that there’s a bit of an uptick in the price…. Must be quashed at all costs! :-)

“ MINING LICENSING EXPECTED TO RESUME NEXT WEEK

Minister of Mines and Minerals Development Paul Kabuswe says mining licensing is expected to resume next week when Cabinet approves the report from the mining cadastre.

The Ministry in May 2022 officially handed over an audit report to President Hakainde Hichilema on the suspension of the issuance of mining licenses earlier this year.

Mr. Kabuswe reiterated that the suspension in the issuance of licenses was necessary to clean up the system and allow Zambians to be participants in the mining sector other than being spectators.”

This could be key to getting things moving.