Member Info for SeisNav

There’s a new ‘morning comment’ out on Jubilee.

So sad that Ruffles is preventing the professional derampers like Travelcard from doing their job effectively. Boo bleedin’ hoo. :-)

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/well-need-a-monster-cobalt-mine-every-two-years-from-2025-26-or-well-um-run-out/

Nice to see the cobalt price perking up today after a steady decline. This is quite an interesting article on future requirements and why we don’t want the price to go sky high.

They also mention Metalkol, who operate a cobalt tailings reprocessing operation in DRC, producing 20,000 tonnes per year, making them one of the largest producers in the world. A nice target for Jubilee to aim at!

Must have missed that one!, nice to know we are still in the game, I’d already written that one off.

Hasn’t the 2 year period for the JORC upgrade already lapsed? I don’t expect to see anything more from Sturec but I might be wrong.

Casa finally over the line maybe?

I thought this information might be useful for anyone trying to work out future PGM splits:
Western Limb: https://tinyurl.com/ywckeezh
Eastern Limb: https://tinyurl.com/5fz2vnyh

The "Avge PGM basket" values are the ones I'm using at the moment and they are pretty close to the numbers used in the WH Ireland note. You can see they are very similar to the data for Tharisa, just a little higher in Palladium and Rhodium as you might expect if adding some Eastern Limb feed into the mix. The data is not totally complete as some mines only report the 4 major elements but it might be useful to someone!

WHI View: We are encouraged by the start of proper drilling in Botswana in, what we view, as highly prospective licences. With regard to the proposed Anglo transaction, while it is disappointing to hear of a delay we still see the proposed transaction as highly advantageous to Arc – not least because it prepays a portion of the value that could exist in the licences and leaves Arc only a substantial portion of any discovery. Zambian exploration would be in capable well-funded hands under Anglo, and if there is a deposit in the licences then, in our opinion, Anglo has the technical expertise to find it. The geology in Zambia is compelling with high-impact anomalies already identified. We see Anglo moving quickly to explore the properties if / once the agreement is signed. We continue to see fair value at 6.0p, but that is before it receives any cash from Anglo and before any exploration results from Zambia or Botswana. A discovery of size in either country could see the market valuation react positively and rerate significantly if past precedent on other, similar, discoveries is replicated.

NvS also mentioned in the last investor call that we had been offered another license in Zambia. If we decided to take that up and it was something Anglo is also interested in, that may also need resolving once the Cadastre Department reopens. Not saying that is going to happen, just a possibility.

We know that the President received the audit report at the end of May:
https://www.lusakatimes.com/2022/05/29/mining-audit-report-finalised-and-handed-over-to-president-hichilema/
And the Department was expected to reopen ‘soon’. That was two and a half months ago… so clearly there have been plenty of issues to resolve.

Most of the people selling yesterday would have been the 10%’ers, who would have sold even if a deal had been announced! It’s going to take more than a positive RNS to make most LTH’s sell a bean :-)

CT I’m not a geologist but if you look at this overlay I put together:
https://seisnav.blogspot.com/2022/07/arc-minerals-in-kalahari-copperbelt.html

They are looking to drill the contact between the green and light brown rock formations, this is where all of the nearby deposits have been located, indicated in red on the map. The soil analysis has shown evidence of anomalies above this contact. That’s about as much as I can tell you :-)

It should be seen as a good thing in my view that the new government is prepared to shut down the licensing in order to root out corruption in the system. Yes it’s frustrating for us but the copper isn’t going anywhere.

I think most people are expecting Anglo to be able to drill year round. If it requires some road building to get equipment moved I’m pretty sure they have the wherewithal to do that.

Presumably it’s an intr day RNS because they just started drilling!

As was speculated, we are waiting for the Cadastre Dept to reopen in order to complete the DD and so we are into the second 90 day period.

Nice to see we are underway in Botswana!

As requested Mikie, here's a more optimistic forecast!

https://tinyurl.com/2y7nux2d

This assumes PGM and Copper prices and costs had remained unchained since H2 2021 and also that we achieve 50% of the Cobalt design capacity.

Thanks DRB, no I haven’t accounted for any JV costs as none were stated in the last RNS. Maybe they have been included in the overall costs / tonne? It’s a good point to bear in mind though.

Jonah, I don’t know it’s a reflection of the feed materials grades but with the Cu circuit targeting 12,000 Tonnes per year and the Co circuit having a design capacity of 1,200 Tonnes per year, a ratio of 10:1, that is pretty representative of the dumps around Kitwe which average 0.29% Cu and 0.05% Co. Wherever it’s coming from they clearly think its worthwhile doing and I don’t think they would have quoted the design capacity unless they expected to get something reasonably close to that… time will tell.

DRB, hopefully we might get a bit more info on Cobalt in the next company update. The Copper circuit should be operating at full capacity by the end of this month judging by the last update (90%). In theory the Cobalt circuit could be running shortly after that. I’ve gone pretty conservative until we know more but I’m hoping it will be considerably more than that!

Also I should have said I’m assuming no PGM ounces from the JV for FY 2022, they stated the plan is to phase those out unless required to make up a shortfall.

I might have a look at FY 2024 once we know more on cobalt and plans for Northern Strategy. Too many unknowns at this stage!

They say a picture paints a thousand words... I've put together these charts which show the progress the company has made over the last few years and what FY 2023 could look like.

https://tinyurl.com/6f26fjmm

For the calculations for next year:
I've assumed current metal prices.
I've applied the latest costs for production and transport.
I've assumed we meet production targets for copper (10,000 T) and PGM (45,000 ounces?)
The biggest unknown of course is Cobalt production. I've assumed just 10% of the design capacity (10 tonnes / month).

I've shown the attributable PGM ounces which have been pro-rated to take into account ounces lost to the JV and the 'in-process' ounces sold for a fraction of the basket price. I think this helps show the reason for the big drop in earnings for FY 2022.

Also I calculated the average PGM basket since start of production. It's pretty clear to see that our share price is following that price quite closely.. as you would expect as PGM's have dominated the earnings until this year. Next year is shaping up to be very different with a more even split between PGM and Copper / Cobalt.

All in all I think we have come a long way in a few years!

We have Berenberg at 20 p as well

I very much doubt they had exactly 6000 ounces of 'in-process' material to sell after the shutdown. More likely they split it so that they had something to cover the period when Inyoni was ramping up again. See what I mean about Homey... always looking for the most negative possibility, no matter how unlikely it might be.

Sadly every share has it’s ‘Homey’ all dedicated to trying to convince shareholders or potential shareholders that black is white. He pops up every time results are released and tries to paint the most negative picture of things he can… all allegedly to give ‘balance’ to the discussion. I’ve filtered him so I’m not tempted to respond.