Member Info for Seifert

You made good and valid points in your reply. Stick with whatever works best for you, I would. That does not imply I am oblivious to others' points of view or interpretation of risk-reward analysis, but I will stick with my view. I set a short at 850 because I expected a speculators' spike, and it didn't trigger. AAL to me seems like a wall of mirrors - minus the dividends. Good trading.

The question is, turn which way?

Good afternoon. Do you think this can keep ticking up? This does not make any commercial sense, unless there is a potential takeover prospect (insiders would know). My guess it's something else. And I will stick with my strategy of shorting once is hits, say, 820. Good luck.

You should have waited a bit. There's some profit taking,, so sentiment will likely drag it back down to its (today's) opening price. That's just my take on it. We'll see what happens at the close of trading today. I'm in no hurry, and it would be wise to be patient with this stock, because this company ain't going anywhere anytime soon.

I suspected that this bank would remain in public ownership, and even with a reversal of this Leave vote (which I suspect will happen) this company will remain in public ownership. It is so fragile that any catalyst would have pounded the shares. The moron who broke this bank by over-leveraging it, has wounded it, permanently, and I don't think it will ever really heal. Banks as an asset class, as an industry, need drastic re-evaluation, from every perspective. .

Banks don't go bust for commercial reasons in places like the Ukraine, they are systematically robbed, especially with the West buttressing Ukraine against a resurgent Russia, funds flow into that country, and right out again, by all means fair and foul, (mostly foul). - As for the iron ore pellets, yes, they are top grade, but in a glut of iron ore, top grade means little, and with debt ridden thrown in, you have a heady mix to navigate. - As I am not a stakeholder here, I think I will not post here in more, and should mind my own business. So I wish you well and bid this FXPO forum adieu.

Sorry I wasn't around. But as I am now present, I would like to add (and you can take notice or discard as you wish) that whenever governments start trumpeting the merits of banks capital ratios as being robust and ten times what they were, well, all I can say is that there is one thousand-fold dodgy money around, coupled with over inflated central banks' balance sheets,, and something has to give sooner or later. So I would be wary with all the banks. Treat them as short term punts. Iceland did the right thing in letting them go bust. All we have are zombies with cosmetic facades. Sooner or later, something has to give. Good luck with your trading! - PS. I withdraw some of my earlier remarks about patterns, I have given this some thought and I think what you really need to look out for is one signature event, namely, if there is the barest hint of a rights issue, then the game is up for this company, and it will go the way of LMI, which I often warned about when it was trading around 110 pence or so, all the way down when events took over.

I don't mean to be rude, or froward, but I would ignore the pattern at your peril. I am not invested here, and not interested even if it went to 1 p, and I have not been following this, but what I do follow is trends. You would be wise to hedge, but that is for you to determine. Outsiders, like me, perhaps should keep quiet, but I not pretending to be anything but an observer. Ultimately, trust your own judgement. Good luck.

I had a stake here about 14 months ago, sold out and not in, but this stock seems to sag. Is there a debt issue of some kind hanging over it? I would like to get back in, because I prefer to hold compnaies with real assets and technical potential. I will dig down a bit and watch what happens.

What on earth happened to this stock? I recall several years ago when it was in the 300 pence range arguing the merits of this company with someone who had quite a stake, and I was somewhat mocking of this company's prospects. I used to spread bet it on occasion, but not for a long while. I am shocked it's gone this low. This does not auger well for a recovery , in my view. It's more likely it will go in administration and reform itself. I don't have a stake, and not followed it at all for years, but that tends to be the pattern. Good luck, and hope I am wrong for holders' sake I stress here again, I have not followed this stock for several years. I'm only looking at a pattern..

I have been away from the markets for a while, but been following this stock for global indicators, and have concluded that speculators reckon this is going to be bought up by, say, some fund, especially with cheap cash to hand, and broken into its constituent parts. I am of the view that this is past that point, and am now only looking for a shorting entry point. I do see it passing the 800 pence threshold so will position accordingly.

How is it going?! Don't allow any misfits and anti-social morons to rattle you. Keep a clear head. - I made some money on RR. It was luck with the Hedge Funds raising interest. But the new CEO (ex-Arm CEO) is not the man for the job. Rolls will go down in due course, in my view. RR is the kind of animal that needs a competent manager who really understands the air-engine business. The new guy got lucky with the surge in mobile. RR is a different kettle of fish. I'll update you as and when. - Gary came around to my place. It seems you were a bit of a chubby fella back in the old days when he was your best man!!!!

Not a logical rise over the past several months, unless someone is privy to company insider whispers, or, of course, there is some con afoot. Transparency, as ever, is the least consideration of regulators. LuckyMouse had a point with his earlier post and more correctly sets the tone, so something odd is happening here. Regulators suck. They're bought and paid for. I have more respect for a cockroach.

Not for me, thanks. I will short this one if it hits 160. Good luck with your position, though!

I disagree over your argument that the recent surge in (over-) investment commodities' was merely another one of those 'cycles' that come and go. China, and the BRIC story, represented something completely different. Everyone, and I mean everyone, made an assumption that these huge populations in developing countries would move en mass at break neck speed into urban areas, thus requiring every greater quantities of commodities of all kinds, including oil. This surge was akin to a mania, and the coming glut will not more be a 'normal cyclic' correction than the recent surge in investment was normal. It set out to anticipate something that, in all probability, will occur over a greater time frame than than anticipated. RIo, BLT and Vale are doing what Saudi Arabia and its peers in OPEC are doing - trying to squeeze out over-supply. This is par of the 'new normal' and, once the speculative rallies in stocks have passed, what you really need to do is sit back and work out for yourself what is the most realistic range that you can buy Rio stock. And it's less than nothing taking note of broker's ratings. Work this one out for yourself. Good luck!

I wish you luck here, and yesterday saw a decent uptick in RIo's share price, Your gut is your friend, and it's wise you learn to listen to it always, but sometimes gut and wishful think can overlap, and distinguishing them not so easy when easy money is one's main motivation. So, let me say this about iron ore - if this commodity were on the rise (in financial markets) the likes of AMI would be trading at £10, and not 10p. RIo, BLT and Vale have embarked on a 'mission' to decapitate the bevy of miners who are causing a glut (the supply side). Their rationale skipped the prospect of the demand side slowing (China especially) and it is this 'squeeze' that I think will cause the predicted iron ore glut to swell from a normal sized wave to a broader and bigger beast. The tide in global markets is pulling out, not coming in. Companies, big and small, are clever in mistiming (look at RIo's acquisition of Aluminium at the peak, and the subsequent write downs). But let me emphasise, that speculators, and rhetoric from policy makers can shift this stock price right back up. On that basis, of trading shares and not investing, there is a powerful rationale. But investment-wise, based on fundamentals, I don't see that as sound until over-capacity (in China) an debt (in the West and China) is contained. - Good luck with your trading!

Nothing?

Exceedingly low probability of that scenario! The stock price could remain depressed, the company very unlikely to disappear. - Issues are the following: iron ore glut likely to exceed estimates (c.f. what is happening with oil).The margin of this discrepancy will weigh and determine trend price of Rio stock (and other iron-ore heavy miners) This glut puts downward pressure on prices. Mines will be slow to close, especially in China, due to political-social considerations. - Forays into the realm of prediction is suspect (to put it mildly) but I will stick my neck out (ever so slightly) and say that a likely bounce from around 2450, limited in duration before trending back down to the circa 2000 range. From there, it's anyone's guess. - Disclosure, I am not invested here, and not looking to take any imminent stake until the macro environment becomes clearer. The markets until then seem (to me at least) to be prone to bouts of speculation (liquidity is also drying up towards end-of-year, so this can be an outlier in terms of trend predictions). But don't discount speculators. For traders, these wilful dogs are your best of friends!

I would listen to the daily mail if I were you. This is a Tory rag, and I never read it myself, but even a dog's bark sometimes hints at the right signal. Good luck!

The US economy 'powering ahead'? This is a service paper economy. The real economy is hollowed out. You cannot serious price a commodity like Iron Ore on the basis of the USA 'powering ahead'. It is the likes of facebook, Twitter, Google, Yahoo, Alibaba, Apple, etc, and a lot of other nebulous stuff that is the cause of this 'powering ahead.' Or am I mis-reading things?