Member Info for Seifert

The reasons for disposal is that this microprocessor space is in transition, and Intel are of the view (rightly or wrongly) that IMG are not in the vanguard of the leader in the developing arena of the 'Internet of all things'. IMG is more attuned to mobile phone market etc., this is maturing with (greedy and selfish) Chinese producers ramping up their production. Where does that leave IMG? Where does that leave Apple? If you recall how Nokia dominated the mobile space until the iPhone came out and the whole area changed. Then Blackberry was all the rage. That's how quickly things change. So, we are in a transition phase. Is IMG among the winners? Who knows, you take a risk based on your own instincts, research, and convictions. - Disclosure, I am not invested here not have I been nor have I followed IMG in any sustained way. What I do know a lot about is the technology arena and followed that broad category closely. Good luck to all participants here.

I thought you knew, that it was common knowledge, namely that the union jack is really a depiction of bananas! All abstract of course, and the colour scheme meant as a representation of the protein and starch content of said fuit!

I am not presently invested here, I sold out a while back. But in my view, this is a case of consolidation over profits. Putting the latter over the former risks weighing negatively on the company going forward. - That's just my view.

Rationalizing, while worthy and instinctive, is seldom rewarded in this game!

How are things with you? I hope all is well. - Thank you for your detailed account of the options market. I am only ever interested in puts, not calls. Also, your account makes it seems 'unseemly easy', and nothing is ever that easy (expect cheating with a guaranteed return!) - I gave some consideration before replying, and let me explain why. I would like you to imagine the following. There is a dog, say a rottweiler, who has not eaten for a week. Now imagine holding before this beast a leg of freshly roasted mutton. The response is obviously. This brute will clench it with its jaws and not let go. Now try to imagine taking away that roast mutton from this brute. This is what 'modern' finance is. More specifically, it is what the 'professional traders' are (banks, hedge funds, etc). These people are starving hungry dogs. Even though the supine government have their backs and guarantee them a very good standard of living, they are not interested in flying first class - they want their own private jets. They are not interested in luxury class on the QE2, they want their own super yachts. These are the people (starving hungry dogs) who brought down the financial system. And they will do it again because, like those famished brute rottweilers, this is all they know. And next time will be far worse, because of all this QE in the system. It is not the real economy that is the problem. There is amply need for everything, copper, iron ore, steel, services of all kinds. It is the financialization of that real economy, the gambling mixed with starving hungry dogs that undermine everything. -When will the next calamity occur? It could be tomorrow; next week; a year away; or two... This is why no economic model can ever work. Because wrecking it all are the pack of starving hungry dogs that, ultimately, will even eat themselves. - As for IAG, it is over priced, and £5 is just over-over priced (in my opinion). I can;t see many bargains around. In any case, you know me, I am very short term. Not interested in holding. I may be wrong, but I am not really trading much any more. I only dip in an out occasionally. So my views are very-very skewed to the downside, as you can tell from our ongoing discourse. And I have to confess that such extreme more often than not veer too far. But that's life!

Rio may be a 'safe bet' , but are commodity prices (speculation) a 'safe bet'? That is the conundrum, and there ain't no algorithm out there that can overcome this.

Why a rights issue with ultra low interest rates at your beck and call, unless of course the banks were unwilling to take you on as a risk? While I like this company, I have to question the managements' motives and forward thinking, and from my point of view, once these buggers start down the rights issue road (compare RSA) you don't know where or when it's going to end. One thing is for sure, every word uttered via the management is likely to be glossy and glib, and veer on the side of deception. Only a hangman's noose will get these pimps speaking frankly (I would like to see these guys put their own money at stake and buy in big time here to prove that they believe in the things they are doing have merit.) The proof is in the pudding!

Ok, thanks for that. Let me respond to some of your points, and then pose a question. Firstly, the 'good old days' that you and I are familiar with are prehistoric to the current generation. For this group, owning the latest smart phone is a basic human right. They do not think like you and I. They have no tolerance, deference, courtesy or manners. They are brutish in their perception of wealth distribution. And they will want what they consider to be 'a fair share' of the nation's wealth. Denied which, unrest becomes more likely. It is no coincidence when the met chief, when asked by the Home Secretary why he needed water canon are a tool of riot control, his answer what that due to ongoing austerity, the likelihood of unrest is raised. In effect, there is no end to this so called 'austerity' for a generation. - Second, the government is squeezing costs, which means the welfare budget. This increases the disparities in society, and we become more polarized. The spectre of duplicating Argentina is a real one, not just for the UK, but many other countries. Larry Summers recently voiced his concern/opinion that the US was becoming a 'Downtown Abbey economy'. Central bankers and policy makers are improvising. They have neither the intellignce or foresight to understand the consequences of their actions. - Interest rates, these remain low for one reason, and it's not about spurring investment. It is to allow a whole raft of zombie companies to roll over their debt. After 5 years of effectively zero rates of interest, it still takes the government guarantees to spur the housing market. - A question: the story of energy these past years has been the 'shale boom' which we are told will make the US the biggest energy producer, provided it with energy security and slash prices (supply/demand fundamentals). Why then is WTI crude at over $100 a barrel, and not $60 or lower as we were all told it would be? My answer to this is the following. The financial markets trumpet stories of energy gluts, and lure people to take short bets, to buy shorting options and futures. The 'market makers then manipulate and bid the paper price higher to break those bets and crash the stops of those rational short bets. In effect, this is the only way the mediocre conmen can make money - is to rely on peoples' greeds to trip them over. This is the reason I take no notice of any 'information' coming out of any source. Tomorrow, China relases trade data. It will paint a rosy picture. Markets will respond positively. This data is a fabrication. In my view, the persent state of the 'market' reminds me very much of Enron. I too fell for that con, believing it was the future, that it was an innovative company etc. But it was only a shop run by pimps and con men, over-leveraging everything, and relying above all on peoples' own greed to lure them in. - My motives are cynical. I am out to make money. But I won't win without understanding clearly what is going on. That's the clincher.

You are presenting a rational case for a situation that has passed beyond that worthy attribute. If the present management does not get its way (it is the majority shareholder, so it would be difficult to stop) put yourselves in their shoes and ask: what would I do? I would consolidate the best parts of the business, sell off some under-performing assets to reduce debt, I would streamline the operations, and hope that the Indian economy can sustain enough growth to keep the entity ticking over. Scenario one: short term slowdown would result in impromptu announcements that operations are operating at reduced levels. Scenario two: The economy rebounds, the company picks up momentum. In either case, events are determining the outcome, as the present management has shown no foresight or ability to anticipate economic trends. If you look closely, the brother Grimm who own this company really feel peeved and want their baby back. I think they will do whatever they can to get their way. The best move to it approach them and negotiate a fair price for the outstanding trading (free float) stock. If I was them, I would be exasperated with being a public company and would seek to take it private. Saying which, the present debacle is mostly of their doing. But is is emotions that are push this company around, not commercial logic.

I can only extend my apologies here and say that, for my part, I would do what I feel is best for me. During our various exchanges, you have been right as regards this company, (as one example) and have profited from your models, while I was proved wrong. So you have that on your side. Given this success rate, I would continue with the proven method. - My points appear to strike a particularly negative chord, and I don't wish or seek to be disruptive, but it seems that is what I have become. So I will back off and let alone this board, as I am not invested (long) here and have no wish to, so my views with not be articulated. On that hopefully amicable note, I wish you well and prosperous trading.

For what it's worth, I think all these institutional investors (not their money at stake) are just crying foul to preserve their reputational capital. It think they know that the brothers Grimm! who own this company have settled on taking it private. The bank loans outstanding will just be sold at a discount to hedge funds and speculators in a mixed package of bad or distressed bank debt that was reminiscent of CDOs, While they can not force you to dispense with your stake at the immoral and usurious rate of 70 pence, if the company did de-list, how would you trade your shares? This will need to be conducted privately. Not easy to do. It's very much like ENRC last year. The ultimate culprits, in my view, are the so called 'regulators' and the exchange. These are totally corrupted. They make sound and fury over the 'damage to smaller investors' but these know they inside talk, and more than likely took shorts here. If you really want to hammer and whack the criminals who endorsed this dog of a company, then this is where you should be making a determined start. - I am not invested here, and I was thinking of speculating, but am now weary with the machinations that are gong on here. Good luck to those of you who are determined not to yield. I know what it means to be shafted by crooks in suits. Things will never change.

Broadly speaking, what I see is the following. There are what can be described as 'staged bets' on macro quantities, such as an index. The parties to the trade then slug it out trying to manipulate the macro quantity one way or another, in a tug of war. The instrument used to effect this are the ETFs, which have replaced CDOs and other 'instruments'. This is why fundamentals count for zero, and why stock picking is a dead duck. Example, commodities. This is really a China play. China is slowing. Coupled to which, the data from that country is suspect. There is a glut in iron ore, aluminium, steel, coal, etc. Yet prices keep ramping up. Companies like Rio share price is ramped up. This makes a nonsense of fundamentals. It is a staged play, with ETFs as the poker chips. This is why all my strategies are, and will remains, shorting strategies. As for the projected price of IAG. I don't look at individual stocks. It's become meaningless. -Another issue are the rampant lies. How can inflation be under 2% when energy prices were just increased by around 10%? Throw in all the other price rises you see around you. This is rampant lying on a par with what happens in Argentina. - Another point, I am convinced these central bankers have no idea what they are doing? A rational market would see interest rates around 4 per cent. That they stay at almost zero signals that this are awry. - Austerity. This will not end for ages. - Banks, they are awash with dud loans which they keep on their books. - Volatility, the kind I am thinking about is the most corrosive kind. This is where I think we are heading. - Debt. Can never be repaid. It has to be forgiven, or we undergo a mass default. Or something equivalent to a war. No way will the debt ever be repaid. - Argentina represents the kind of polarised society that will spread worldwide. It was very revealing when the country was on the brink that the president when to away to her villa. This showed that events were out of her control, and she just shut the problem out. You can expect his to become the norm, one way or another, in more and more states. It would be an candid assessment to conclude that we are in an era of dysfunction. I expect to see unrest emerge. - In summary, the distortion have become so entrenched that I don't know how, outside of a calamity, we can extricate ourselves from. Actually, there is another route. One way that will restore growth, eliminate all debt, and put the world on a path to real prosperity. As the position clarifies, I will update you.

I fear through your exasperation and contempt for Mr Gross you missed the point. Perhaps I should have clarified matters. I only meant to point out the assertion that the structure of trading/gamgling that he and so many others have witnessed over the decades is not only in retreat, it is defunct. This will give rise to a systemic antagonism in that the characters who ply their speculative (over-leveraged) bets are still working to the tune of a market that has crumbled. There are plenty of ways to get rich, but the ways the market offers, due to the stupendous uncertainty and fickle volatility, will not allow the kind of 'markets' to emerge. It is a different world. Mr. Gross merely retreats into his safe (for him, tried and tested) solutions, which is the bond market. He does not really understand stocks, but he can see that the climate, the structures we had before, that supported leverage, is, like a house on a cliff on the west coast of the UK, about to collapse into the sea. - Even I see this. It is not the same. There is too much capital chasing too few opportunities. That capital should be invested in real assets in lieu of endless speculation, where is will be consumed by its own senseless, Sisyphean shenanigans!

The 70 pence offer is a bare-faced cheek. You may even call it a swindle. But this is casino capitalism. And on that basis, there is a reasonable chance of this offer being accepted. Fundamentals and value and EBITA and forward earnings don't come for any consideration. Those who got in at sub 50s did well. You now know a floor. For me, watching this stock was a learning experience. I wish all the very best to those who feel that £3 oR £4 may yet be on the cards. We see in this instance that Greek debt is a better bet than Essar.

Here is an amusing, if insightful, article from Bill Gross, CEO of Pimco., Have a read at your leisure and and note the point he makes in the latter part of the piece that 'the days of get rick quick are past, and the days of get rich slow also past.' Then relate this to the behavioiur of people who actually 'trade' whose only mission in life, and reason for living, is to get rich quick. Given the fact that these guys, drowning in temptation, will never change, what are the likely scenarios, and how are they likely to unfold? And, as you read the piece, please spare a thought for the pig! - http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Most-Medieval.aspx

Yes, as you say, we touched on these subjects before. Computers are doing the trading (misnomer) not human being using their own money, but funds etc and algos spending other peoples' money. Learning how to read this is the way forward, And I will be perfectly candid, I have learned a great deal here. It is not sentiment that factors in, nor fundamentals, not whether a sector is out of favour or not. These are redundant metrics. Also, the kind of mathematics you need to apply is not the kind that caused the financial crisis. The only hangover from the past is momentum 'trading, but there is also another factor at work These variables make investing not only problematic, but impossible. One way for these current methods to work is to create volatility. Long term, I would not invest in any stock. I only speculate now, very short term. If there were exogenous factors that can impact prices then these would be political in origin,not economic. Good luck! PS. I too do not bother with what a company is, is not, or can be etc. These mean nothing to a computer that rides out trends, and seeks to either stoke, or anticipate, or if possible give rise to, volatility.

They (the insiders, brokers etc). must know something you don't, and are not sharing it with the public, and the RNS not spelling it out. That would be my guess.

Even more than aluminium, copper, banking and food retailers,there is a veritable glut of planes. Other bigger aillines like Emirates are determined to steam roll over and just This company pays no dividend. It is subject to the vagaries of the weather, (and volcanoes on Iceland!) I would like to meet a human being (not a computer) putting up their own cash to buy this. If anyone is confident the ETFs, funds etc will keep buying, then buy.

Who do you estimate to be the biggest blackguards - the con men in the City of London, or the misfits running this company?! Being caught between a mugger and a fool springs to mind here, let alone rock and a hard place!

ETFs, institutional buying and tracker funds. No one in their right mind would use their own money buying at this price!