Member Info for Seifert

This company bring to mind the image of a lazy octopus with tentacles in too many pies, and none deep enough to warrant taking a medium or long term risk. Good for short term trading only (in my humble and limited opinion).

Your honesty (and exasperation!) speak volumes, and I heartily commend you for that. I too have experienced these types of machinations and incompetence in the past, and now I would only invest on the basis of management. i don't invest in companies, I would only invest in management. The rest is really just a punt. Essar is a punt. The bounce we see today - is this validated by any fundamentals, or a speculative punt? A dead cat bounce? - In a way, perhaps the current troubles are a blessing. It will force creditors to look at the balance sheet and start making demands (better late than never). I do find it incredible that creditors apparently keep faith with this management. I can only assume sizeable backhanders and corruption is at the root of it. As I surmised earlier, this company is treated like a toy. Sometimes, countries with apparently self-evident huge potential are the ones to avoid. We could say the same about Argentina. Or Africa. Or Egypt. - Corruption (and unsustainable debt) ultimately is the Achilles heel that topples the giant.

Taking into account your ample and picturesque description of this company (and more to the point, it's management style) and given your background, is this really a company anyone should be invested in? The picture in my mind, gleaned from various comments rather than my own research, is that the 'brothers' treat this company as a kind of toy, not a company, and they possess all the attributes of spoiled children who warrant a sound whack across their rears to liven them up! Perhaps you and like-minded investors will avail all interested parties of this necessity.

Having been in your shoes on some other stocks, I feel your angst and frustration. In the movie 'Wall Street' an old timer wraps his arm around Bud's shoulders and confides to him (You know, Bud, when a man faces the abyss, that's the time he learns his true character.' I mention this only to say that while wisdom comes cheap and your stocks are aching under a paper loss, sometimes, coldly assessing the circumstances, suggests the way forward. If you believe this is a recovery stock, then hang on. If not, it's better to start at the bottom with some cash and make your way up again, than allow some reprobates and crooks (the management of Essar) leave you languishing. - For my part, I took my eyes from this stock and was surprised to see the plunge down to the mid 50s. If I was to get in here, it would be merely as a short term speculator. I don't know India, and not sure how business operates there. But just because it is a developing country with huge potential does not mean it is a better bet than a mature market with an aging population (Japan, Italy, Netherlands etc). - Saying which, I am not in your shoes, so anything said on my side is from someone who has the luxury of observing and not feeling burned (swindled) by the aforementioned blackguards!

I owned some of these shares several years ago. Sold out and missed the rally. In general, it appears a sound company. But no management skill can counter bad luck. And unfortunately, BG has encountered some bad luck. I will keep an eye on this as a possible buy in. But I will wait. - As for those who say this is oversold, under price etc., well, I can list off an entire bevy of companies that are monstrously over priced, and the stock goes on up, while the opposite obtains for (putative) under priced companies, i.e the stock tanks!.It's really has become a gamble. I no longer comprehend any investing strategy. From foregoing, you can ascertain that I would only be interested in short term speculation on the stock. - Good luck to all.

While this is one stock to watch, despite low volumes, I am skeptical on the 30p range. Sure, it could bounce from there, but should it cross that point (to me unlikely, but I could be wrong) then we would have to assume the creditors will take control of the company. Again, we are judging these speculative outcomes on the politics of debt and under-performing management, rather than company fundamentals per se. But then again, perhaps management should be a criterion of company fundamentals?

While the 'absolute value and character of the deb't' does hold significant consideraion, if I were an investor (or even a speculator!) I would be asking myself t the following: 'Is the present management the one best suited to take this company forward, even through a quagmire of debt? - That is what would sway me one way or another. It's a 'people' thing, not an asset thing per se.,

These numbers are meaningless and at best a distraction. You should look for other pointers to inform your trading.

Are you religious man? Or perhaps even a superstitious one. A falling knife is bad enough. A falling knife that cuts both ways, worse still! Of the Ten Commandments, resisting temptation is included for a reason. It may be better to see where this pair of tempting apples settle. Then may end up being the victims of gravity than seduction, and no force is more relentless and universal as gravity. (By the way, Greavity 'the movie' is well worth a watch).

You do not need GS or anyone else to inform you that there is much too much liquidity in the system. This has distorted price discovery across the board. If you look at there all this cash went (QE in the West, and credit expansion in the East) we see that in the West it went into bank reserves, property, and speculation. In the East, massive over-capacity. We have two obese titans of debt jostling for space. Will they both tumble over? For example, when I look at Spain with its structurally bankrupt banks, mass unemployment, and a government as fragile as a dandelion, yet Spanish government bonds are barely above US levels. This is don't describe as irrational or financial madness, I define it as recklessness. This is the kind of mis-pricing that we see everywhere.

Your cynicism is rather refreshing! I hope you get your money back in full. Given the antics of speculators, there is a good chance of that happening. For my part, I am not an investor, so only look to the mind set of speculators, who are running this and the whole show at present. It is likely superfluous of me to say, but hand in there!

Hi there, it's been a while since I have looked in again at this stock (shambles?!) You state in your Jan 8 post that... ' I wish I had the balls to be really brave!! .... But I don't!!...' Perhaps you need the balls to be reckless, as the management amply demonstrate with unerring regularity. I am loath to give advice, and we can seek counsel of 'experienced' players, and those most vocal are the ones investing (i.e. risking) other peoples' money. When it's your own, it's a hard apple to bite into.

I don't think so!

You flatter me! I post some general views here as I see them. What the so called 'market' does or does not has no relation to realities in the real economy. When historians look back at this crisis posterity will conclude this - that it was a missed opportunity to restructure finance. Saving what is a corrupted system merely exposes (what I consider) the fact that that the recent slew of prosecutions against rigging of all kinds (this has been going on for decades, as everyone knows) but the so called authorities (monkeys all) are acting now because they know the system is so fragile that it simply cannot take another hit. But this financial structure poses the very same risks. - In general, what we have is too much liquidity. In the case of the West, it is money printing. In the case of China and some other emerging nations, it is credit. The former has gone into speculations and asset bubbles. The latter propping up bloated (often government owned or owned by cliques) corporate behemoths who have invested too much and we have overcapacity in everything. Two reports recently on the same day from the same newswire said the following. One said China's imports in December 2013 was at a record. The other said that 30 percent of so of excess steel capacity had been mothballed in the region producing 50 percent of China's steel. Which is correct? It doesn't really matter. The fact (in my view) is that no data coming out of China means anything, and ditto here is the West, with data increasingly distorted by speculative bubbles, a complicity media, and governments determined to bluff their way. A real recovery would see interest rates rise, wages catching up and overtaking inflation, and demand increasing. A recovery built on sand would see a housing bubble, overvalued banks, and asset bubbles. This is my take on things. Am I bearish? This means nothing whatsoever. As I a pessimist? No, I think humanity is incredible. Do I think this financial system is corrupted and beyond repair? Yes. Was the crisis wasted? Yes. Will it happen again? In my view, more than likely. Only this time it will suck in China too. And, like it or not, no matter what we do, we are all losers in this.

Some may take the view (quite understandably) that I am bearish and generally pessimistic. This is not the case. I adhere strictly to facts (as I see them, of course). Why I no longer invest, but only speculate? The reason is the perilous disconnect between finance and the real economy. The former is hideously mismanaged and routinely manipulated, and has outsized effects on the real economy. There are just too many players (hedge funds, banks, insurance companies, Sovereign wealth funds etc....) all doing the same thing using the same tools and with access to the same information. Cheating is not merely a corollary of trading (i.e. gambling) it is a systemic part of the edifice that is finance. There is no way that the so called 'banksters' will ever change their ways. They have just now cajoled and threatened the monkeys (governments and regulators) to ease off on the bank reserve rations, and the 'allowed practices.' They do not know any other way to make money. And it is this that will, sooner or later, cause a catastrophe. I would sooner lose some money than have a depression, for example, occur. But, what amounts to a death wish, seems to plague these ''bankstes' like an addiction. When you disconnect from the real world and the real economy to such an extend we see today, there is on way of getting back on track other than through some kind of catastrophe. - I leave you with a question. It was most revealing when Trade Secretary Lew went to Germany to 'persuade' that country to ease off on exports, and stoke consumer spending. If all nations imagine that through 'exports' then can recover, then this is a idle dream. The Euro is mistimed. And Globalization is skewing production to the few at the expense of the many. Answers, and opinions, welcomed.

I have to answer that I am a speculator (that's the best word for it, we are not trading anything, but gamblers only). I am of this ilk at the present time for the following reasons: 1) If this recovery has momentum, then put interest rates back up. If not, then then is a flaw in this argument. 2) The government is trying to force us to spend. Whatever these shysters are trying to cajole us into doing, I will do the opposite. 3) A lot of companies are not trading on fundamentals, and it seems to me that ETF's and algorithmic trading has passed the tipping point of influencing the market. Thus, I am not 'trading' against human beings, but against machines. What is the point of analysts and research and all the rest of this 'old school' method if what is driving, or rather, kicking the market around are fake algos pumping in fake trades to pull them out before committing to anything. PIs are getting shafted by adhering to old school methods. There is no profit or anything to be learned in playing against the past. - Good luck to you.

Many thanks for your post. I closed that short some time ago, took a hit. But I will add that I have no long strategies. All my strategies are short, as I do not believe in this market's fundamentals at all. That companies (the solid ones) are still hoarding cash indicates that all is not right. Enjoy the ride, but this 'bull run' is not for me. I had little confidence in Bernanke (he is just a con man, but at least he was bold). Yellen is a joke, Dragi hostage to structural (not cyclical) problems in Euroland, and Carney has no clue about this economy. All his 'forward guidance' is off the mark. He has to keep adjusting. For me, this is a confidence trick. Market players hold to the truism (and it is a fact) that the central banks will keep rates low, and money easy. This swindling of prudent savers is a sin and a crime. But no amount of promises will persuade me to go long. Good luck!

This market, all sectors, is riding a wave of expectation (and easy money) not fundamentals. It's difficult to see where the bargains are. If one missed the run, then too bad. But it remains the case that most firms continue to hoard cash, which suggests this market is mostly froth.

Printing money at a rate, worldwide, of over $10 trillion is no a 'non-event.' It is an 'unknown'. That is the spectre that we must all trade under. Good luck!

Another year, and how should we describe it? In terms of stock markets, I would say we are at an elevated level. If there is a correction (if) or around 20 percent, then in my mind it would be worth becoming an investor once again, albeit modestly. The main conundrum if the gross disconnect between markets and valuations, economic reality and market bubbles. The correlations have been swept aside and replaced by government convinced that keeping interest rates low, and in effect bribing risk taking (read speculators here) will regenerate that most elusive but most essential economic parameter - confidence. What I see occurring instead is disparities that, cumulatively, will depress real wages, stymie demand, and keep growth at a low rate. On the other side, bribery by government to stoke house price inflation. When you push these extremes towards their polar opposites, a happy society is does not make! - Another irritation is the media who either do not know what they are propagating, or are paid lackeys for vested interests, or both. I have more or less ignored and treated with contempt what appear in the media regarding markets. I think one big thing to watch (look at numbers, not take any cue from the media) is commodities. China is not the nation most people imagine it to be, nor the one the Chinese themselves have self-persuaded to imagine is the true picture. On that front, expect the unexpected. As for the USA, is is leaning so heavily on its status as the holder of the world's reserve currency that this will begin to crack. America's structural problems will not go away, and will have to be addressed. The over inflated 'energy boom' is not all it is cracked up to be. Looking at the price of crude, is a better indicator. Energy prices will increase. This will feed into higher costs for companies, lowering their margins. It is a low growth scenario, in this picture. Europe has an over-valued currency. Speculators and ETF's are pushing up the stock market in a negative correlation with the value of the currency, which is straining the less competitive economic in the EU. The currency will continue to weigh on Europe. The only solution is a formal US of Europe. The UK has to stop dreaming it is a top rank power and take it place in the EU. Growth here too is low, with a lot of that growth due to the house price inflation. The UK is drawing on its old habits. OK if you are a property owner, especially in London and the South East. The real problem is falling (relative) wages.This really needs to change. It would have been better for QE to have gone out as handouts to the lower income groups than leaving it sitting in banks. Finally, I am very negative on all financials. I will not be investing in any asset class of this kind. I will only short these. I will stick with industrials, and (hide my face in shame!) property & REITs. - It remains only for me to wish you a happy and prosperous New Year! - Seifert.