Member Info for Seifert

I think they are bearish on commodities generally, coupled with Rio-specific constraints. 1) Rio's copper project in Mongolia now carries political risk; Rio is dominated by its iron ore mines, and China by developing its futures market for ore shipped there wants to control prices, and hence push them down. - While I agree that Goldman, along with all brokers and bankers are snakes, I feel that you can glean useful information even from a snake's mouth. A a ruse can be a useful key - as any smart woman knows! (Sorry for being sexist, Penelope, I just couldn't resist that one!!! ;-)

I would not put any particular 'number' or bottom here. It will be events that are the deciding factor for me, be that at 25 pence or 100 pence. For such a company at this stage of its 'development' (perhaps predicament is more appropriate) a 'buy-in' price has to reflect motives and intentions, not a single number. That's my personal view, anyhow. Thanks for your post though, I am always keen to see what others are thinking.

The guy has a gripe and a grudge against this company for 'swindling' him. I don't particularly feel he wants to harm private shareholders such as yourself, but he would like the company to take a mighty hit,especially the brother who control the company. Of course, the latter would result in the former unintended consequences scenario unfolding. But this is the nature of a grudge like this - it is blind to the broader consequences. - I think, personally, that if the creditors stepped in and forced some restructuring, that would be a positive for the stock, and I would buy at that point. Until something equal to that arises, I will watch from the sidelines. I need evidence of this company embarked soundly on a recovery curve. And personnel changes would be a great propellant in this respect.

Investors here should make that buffoon Rothschild pay. He was awarded how many millions of shares. They should go to the investors here to compensate for his shortsightedness. That is the problem with finance types, they lack all shame. That goes for Tan and the Bakries and so many others. - Hopefully, investors will get back as much as possible.

You've obviously been tracking this share for quite some time, and perhaps harbour some 'grudge'. There is nothing wrong with grudges, I begrudge banks paying no interest on my saving which they use to speculate with. I begrudge the government for saving these zombies in the first place; etc. So, more to the point. Do you feel that the owners of this company will 'pull a fast one' and take it, say, private? I appreciate some of the risk in terms of the debt servicing and the exchange rate risks, etc., but that does not imply that the owners can or would be able to 'do a runner' with this company.The creditors will have the last say, because no way would anyone loan them a single rupee without guaranteed collateral,and that collateral is the assets of the company. And they for sure are worth a substantial amount, even if this company itself is poorly managed, which everyone suspects it is.

Well... if this tool works for you, the best of luck!

Is this really the time to be adding more Iron Ore to the market? Even if cheaply produced? At this rate, Rio may just as well rename itself as ORI or, squeezing an 'e' from the 'i', ORE! I fear this stock is entering a speculative curve. It could push up, that means. But when it comes down, and where to, is anyone's guess. - Footnote: I am an inveterate China watcher. But it does seem to me that that even their economic model, (being politically driven) has limits to growth for growth's sake. Good luck to Penny and all other investors here.

Your charts may need to take a back seat to speculation, since this is what is commanding and controlling this stock at present. For the time being, it's all down to guesswork. But personally, there is likely to be more action on the downside that up over the coming days and weeks. Good luck with your trading.

The present management are thick headed and thick skinned (alas!) so appeals to common sense may have no influence over them. It appears they will only learn WHEN the creditors impose an ultimatum, so expect some rough seas ahead. Done right, there is no reason for the share price NOT to resume its former highs. My sympathies with your understandable faith in the potential of this company, and the dismay expressed in current management.

The present management are thick headed and thick skinned (alas!) so appeals to common sense may have no influence over them. It appears they will only learn with the creditors impose an ultimatum, so expect some rough seas ahead. Done right, there is no reason for the share price to resume its former highs. My sympathies with your understandable faith in the potential of this company, and the dismay expressed in current management.

A worthy cause, but what is needed most in this respect is some vision coupled with competent management. Id the current management is smart, they should set aside their pride, and bring in an outsider. If very unusual for those who got this company into its present state is able to get it out of that mess. It really is all about personalities, pride, and stubbornness. Please accept my apologies if I came across earlier as abrupt.

wise move!

Hi there, I hope things are going well with you. - I must take issue with your assertion that QE is always been with us. Inflation has burned into fiat money yes, but QE on this scale and to rescue banks, not the economy, is unprecedented and frankly reckless. The muted discussion on how we should 'exit commutative monetary policy'' is not just hyperbole and jargon. They really don't know. No one can guage the consequences. And this globalized world is vastly different from any in the past. Finance moves in microseconds,. No time to make considered judgments. Computers do all the talking. Let's leave this here for now. - SSE. I have a method that is partly algebraic, and partly subjective interpolation in making some forecasts. The time frame is not set in stone, but the 6 to 8 week time frame is what I usually aim for. I will stick with my 1163 and see what eventuates. Your call on IAG has been spot on, but we both agree it is institutions spending other people's money that is pushing this up. By your own admission you are not adding to your stake, despite you are convinced it will go on rising. Nothing wrong in that, for we are middling players among sharks and crooks wagering with other peoples money. If I was in their shoes, I would be buying this too. After all, it's not my money that gets burned. - As for the Gulf carriers, I think if you read the complaints made by Luthansa, Air France etc to Boeing and Airbus over their design of planes, which they are designing around Middle Eastern carrier need, show that these platforms are optimized for Gulf carriers like Emirates, Etihad, etc. There are too many too many planes coming on stream, and this is very reminiscent of the shipping glut. IAG must join with it's European peers and take on a scale to match the Gulf carriers. Otherwise, you will get pushed around and squeezed like the proverbial lemon. - Lomnin, I would be very short term and wary with that one. You are taking a stake on politics, and South African politics are volatile at the best of times. I am keeping an eye on a few other stocks. I will update you when I feel more certain about them.

You've pasted in an awful lot of posts. When I see so many, I don't read a single one, because one is almost always unable to see the wood for the trees.

It's just an informed guess on my part, but I think these have further to fall. They have to reach a level where the management gets the message that they have to up their performance, and get the company back on track. Presently, you are buying (in my personal view) into a stock that has yet to enter the recovery curve. Then it can go back up to the highs of the past. I will keep abreast of developments. Good luck to all investors.

We have all of us lost money chasing a falling knife. I don't know as much, in fact only fractionally as that parkside13 knows about ESSR, but purely on a pattern, I would say follow the trend. And that means buy in lower than 90. Use your own discretion, of course. - Disclosure, I am not a shareholder here, but keeping an eye on developments.

In principle, this company should be doing well. It is based in a market with a dire need for more and more energy, an economy that can only grow at decent rates, and company assets in the right place and the right time. This can only be down to flaw management. Can not shareholders and debt holders force a change at the top. This alone would probably give a tick up to the share price. Otherwise, this company is stuck with trend which, unfortunately, is a negative slope. It's time for shareholders and creditors to agitate for fundamental change at the top.

... get to 550 in what currency? Indian Rupees?!

Hi there, how are things on the western front? Here, on the eastern front things are ticking over as expected.- Your comments on a correction, and the indifference expressed as a consequence thereof: I have to agree with the general thrust of your argument, that a correction does not impact on Joe Blogs the plumber down the road, and that 'we have been here before' argument seems plausible. But this time time it is different in this fundamentally precarious and unknown sense - massive QE (liquidity) and effectively interest rates at zero. This is 'covering up' problems than solving them. The other recessions, and depression, led to the necessary destructive forces to cleanse the system of excess. This time, financial meddling by central banks is keeping alive zombie companies in liue of purging them; it is pushing down spreads and interest of the most mostrous of junk bonds; it is pulling all this fake money into rampant speculaton and 'hot money' flows into places like China etc. These kinds of distortions are new. Their consequences unknown. QE is experimental. The kind of 'knock' to the system is unknown. How long can all this fake money keep rolling on? You claim indefinitely. No. We are in a game of bluff, and central bankers have lost the plot as Bernanke's recent statemens about holding down rates near zero even after his thresholds on unemployment and inflation have been triggered. Capitalism cannot breathe in this environment. Financialization can, but it will run out of breath sooner or later. - Some predictions, SSE will hit 1163 (very exact number!) and, to throw in an extra bone, SRP will hit around 250. If these predictions come to pass, I will give you the reasons why the happened. If not, I was wrong, and no need to bother with redundant information. As for this stock, resilient airlines come in two shades: the giants (Emirates etc) and the expressly low cost (Easyjet etc). Those in the middle will be squeezed like lemons. Capitalism, it seems, still reigns in the airline industry!

I am not a shareholder here, so my views should be taken on that basis. In my opinion, the management of this company lack all sense of shame. They are looking to their own interests first and foremost. As for a recovery, this is always possible with luck, but you need to take into consideration the following: exchange rate of GBP vis a vis US dollar and Indian rupee. The running costs and debt servicing. It seems that Bernanke's guidance is aimed at keeping interest rates low, but if the Fed were forced to raise them (not impossible, but the Fed is an elephant and often gets it own way) then any dollar denominated debt would become a colossal. India is not China. It lacks the depth of financial rigor you are more likely to find there. India is not mini version of China. It is India, and not a match for its giant neighbour. I personally would not invest here, but this is only my opinion, and that's is so easy to say when you are sitting on cash and waiting for something to happen elsewhere. Ultimately, your own experience and convictions must be your guide. We are here merely spectators.