Member Info for Seifert

How are things with you? Hope all is going well and your position in this dog IAG is certainly paying off! - As expected, events, not confidence, is forcing the Fed's hand in this'tapering' malarkey. Bernanke is become a cockroach who has to bribe markets, and he gives every impression of cowering. But these dogs will never be grateful. They will take, and then bite his hand off! It reeks of appeasement reminiscent of Hitler at Munich. Incidentally, this so-called recovery has been chugging along for over 5 years now, longer than WW2. What is happening is volumes will dry up, and momentum and leveraged plays will take over. Volatility is back, in other words. - As for you comments about computers taking over. That will be a good thing, because without a doubt these are dumb, dumber than the' banksters', and can be beaten. This is the time when you can really make a bundle, and I look forward to that time. Presently, I don't see any bargains become the distortions in the market are become so chronic, and price discovery to problematic, that what should be a straightforward attempt at stock picking has become a ponzi-like scheme. I am holding cash. I have no faith whatever in what I am seeing, and will wait till these 'markets' exhaust themselves. There is plenty to be getting on with. With a bit of luck, the pound will go on rising. - Some predictions: I do see a sustained attempt for gold to be hammered. I am like Buffet, I think gold is just a commodity, and should be treated as such. But there are a lot of economic models out there that still anchor currencies and other facets to gold. Smashing gold's grip will help fiat currencies, especially the Anglo-sphere like the pound and the dollar. The Euro seem caught in a net of its own making. Germany will not move until it gets what it wants - economic integration via oversight of Eurozone economies by Brussels. China will not collapse, but there are a lot of distortions there, aggravated by corruption on a colossal scale. So I don't trust the numbers coming out of that country. There are bubbles forming in property forming not just in the UK, but in many other places. That cash syphoned off by crooks the world over is finding its way into property. As for the remainder of the year, I will divert my interests and like a lot of others, wait for a correction. The recent surge in share buybacks will likely inspire the brokers doing the work to push stocks down at some point, so they can buy these cheap, and reap commissions. We are operating in a totally corrupted environment. The trick is to read the signals, and profit from it. So I am not complaining, and in a very real sense, this makes me complicit in a environment that is manifestly working against the interests of the vast majority. Capitalism at its worst, you might say. - Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year!

Can 'anyone' explain you why this has fallen? Is that 'anyone' or 'any thing'?

Hello there, I see you are in rude health and spirits, which I urge you to keep up at all costs. - I appear a wee bit disheartened with 'tapering'. This process or technique or bluff or whatever you wish to call it had a very good run when it was in central bankers' control. I would guess things have turned around and now they are in the hands of the unknown. If you and I 'cheat' sooner or later this would out. What is kicking these markets around is not sentiment but algorithmic trading. Volumes are far too low for sentiment to have any effect. The only place where I reckon human intervention plays a meaningful part is in bonds. But stocks - no. This is a play between computers. I think we have to get past the hackneyed notions of rallies and corrections. These are simply 'moves'. They don't mean anything, nor do they signify anything whatever. I know, it will take some effort to get your head around that. This is something you need to think about. - I have to confess that my 'method' as you call it is not a method as such, though being inspired by the Olympian Gods is one of my touchstones! I read some of the other posts on other boards, and technical charting still seems a popular tool. But what sense in trading according to that when every angle is covered by too many people. A modern description of markets would invite various designations and definitions. One technical description would be 'a framework that is loosely correlated among its parts'. A cynical one would be 'A warren of con men and thieves.' A fool's description would be 'A level playing field.' A luddite description may be: ''A black box I tap to get out cash. Who cares what is inside.' And Siefert would say: 'It's a riddle drafted in Greek. And a wise man never trusts Greeks bearing gifts!' - Take your pick!

The issue here is what else is lying in wait to pop out out of the cupboard? Insurance companies engage in all kinds of complex structured financial products to spread around risk, and this uncertainty of only backlash on RSA's other operations must be in the minds of some. Management (new or otherwise) really must come clean. And it is not exactly auspicious when a CEO leaves the company. It smacks of baling out, of jumping ship, even if that is not what it is in fact, and all that is happening is one guy who failed is stepping aside to give another guy a run at getting this company back on tract. - In this share dealing game, we can get lucky or unlucky, and we all experience both. Last night I almost took a 10K stake here because it seemed a reaonable mid- to long-term bet. It was pure luck I couldn't get a trade in on time. No skill whatever. Pure luck.

Definitely no FT, and plenty of reserved comment.

The cracks began manifesting themselves firstly through debt sustainability, compounded by external exchange rate influences to the downside, and aggravated by an apparently poor strategy by management who increasing looked inept. As time wore on, these once containable cracks and now beginning to seem structural. Escaping from a structural malaise if far more challenging that solving accounting problems. The reason is you are hit on all sides at once, and this can overwhelm a company even with a capable management. I know this must sound grim to stakeholders who are long here, and can see (as I do) the apparent potential in a well run company, even with debt to service. But I have been caught out and lost big time in playing the wishful thinking card. I am also not invested here and can afford to sound alarmist, and investors who know far more than I do about this company can point to aspects I am not familiar with. Just know that you are in a risky set up at the moment, and this invariably draws in the speculators who only concern themselves with minute-to minute trading, not any 'long term' view. This kind of action can leave some with the false impression of its prospects (positive or negative). I just hope all PI's remain on their toes, and hope that the speculators, in their binge, can push this up to a level where you have the choice of baling out, or staying in. This is my final post here. Good luck.

Eighty percent of India's population is below the poverty line. The bureaucracy is notoriously inept and corrupt. Inflation and other financial aspects are middling compared with those facts. You ought to take a close look at reality, since you take offence at others' point of view. If you disagree with all or anything I say, then refute it. I have no problem with being proven wrong. But your post shows that unless someone agree with you, they are deemed bonkers. - Lastly,it is not I who caused this company's problems, but a management who risked all. If I may draw an analogy here, the management of Essar remind me of Rupert Maxwell, rather than the savvy Rupert Murdoch!

Since our discourse appears to have some merit beyond our mutual exchange, allow me to digress into a general theme - the end of QE. Now, whether we like it or not, it must happen at some point. It can be gradual, it can be advertised well in advance, it can also be delayed a little longer, but it mus come to an end. It is beyond stupid to assume that this can continue indefinitely! -There was much debate and controversy over the ramifications of exiting the program, but it seems a consensus has emerged by default - the facts of what has been done are forced on us. It seems clear now that exiting will impact the real economy harder than at first contemplated. The real economy cannot go unscathed by exiting this strategy. So, real GDP will take a hit. I am not sure howlong or for how many quarters of (more than normal) subdued growth will continue for, but real GDP will take a hit. This is the price of saving the banks. I think most informed people would agree that saving the banks the way they were saved was a bad idea. They should have been left to fail on their own, and then broadly nationalized, like Blackrock. By patching up a wound you only delay surgery. Money has not fed into broadly increasing wages, thus stymieing demand for who knows how long. The demand curve is not providing the tailwinds that past post recessions provided. This was a critical mistake. - On a more societal level, disparities will increase. The rich will get richer and the those lower down the chain will, via stagnation, fall further behind. If we depict these trends on a curve, then societies the world over are inching towards a Brazilian or Argentinian model of society. This is the next stage of the experiment in QE. How will societies fare in the medium to long term? It was the case during the worse of the financial crisis, and remains intact, that politicians and central bankers are improvising as they go forward. There is no grand plan. There is no vision. Perhaps, in the worse case, we will need another financial meltdown to re-set the economic system to the place and point it should have been re-set in 2010. That was the greatest failure of this lamentable episode of reckless excess.Cheap money caused the problem. Cheap money was never the right solution. And the risk is that QE becomes the new subprime catalyst..

Debt for equity is an admission failure. To go this route means short term problems dead ahead. Medium and long term are variable beyond control, and the low volumes here given an announcement on the financial side would indicate stakeholders are willing to embrace a 'wait and see' mode. Moreover, debt for equity implies that the debt, being dollar denominated, is like to present greater challenges.Like, the dollar will rise, not fall, and so the wall that Essar has to climb only grows with time. - I imagine that the present management were risking all on a rapid turnaround of the Indian economy, but it is always hard to gamble on inefficient economies. If Essar were Russian, it would not have these problems. Finally, if the new governor of the Central Bank of India instigates a policy to tame inflation, the Indian economy is in for a rough ride. Nominal GDP will decrease.

I would say it was jolly misleading!

What volatility? There has been some uncertainty, and low volumes, but I don't detect 'volatility' as you suggest. You have to go back a wee bit to see 'volatility'.

M personal view, in looking at the trading patterns for Rio, is that a lot of the action, if not all, is HFT driven. This is computer trading, I am sure of it. Such programs have a tendency to jump in and pull out in way that can seem berserk. Good luck to all.- Disclosure, I am not invested in RIo at present.

I agree with much of what you say, and will add that, in my view, pride is getting in the way of a rational analysis of the business model that should be pursued, and more important, getting in the way of recovery. How do you price-in ill-placed pride into a stock? I am keeping this stock on my watch list. I feel the agony of those who made rational assessment of the business case of ESSR, and invested at a higher share price. It is more often than not the management that is the problem. The creditors would be wise to act, because there is a great deal of potential here. But it may take more to break the stubborn position of ill-placed pride.

That's a gloom prognosis. If this ship were going down, then you can be sure the management would keep it afloat for as long as necessary to secure as many assets as possible. But I have to confess, even as a non-stakeholder, that it's hard to see this one going to the wall.

The question is, as you right head in your banner, when will the management duo wake up? How hard and persistent must the message be before it get's through?

How are you today? I hope all is going well, and as long as some of your trades are in the black, the red can wait. I am sorry to hear of Lonmin's fall from such dizzy heights of £40 to the present share price, despite the fact any consistent basis is a task we are all doomed to fail. - Today sees the release of data from the US. Frankly, I think this is an aside. What is more important is the political partisan slugging match that will stymie President Obama, and cloud the economic outlook. There are guys in Washington determined to make life hell for the president. They want to effectively end his presidency and leave him a lame duck coasting to retirement in Jan 2017. I really don't know what the truth is about 'recovery'. A lot of the jobs created are not the kind that can kick start demand in any meaningful way. I see political events dictating market sentiment more than any published numbers. - I see that your rationale for owning, and defending, the current status (using share price as a metric) of SSE. I am holding to my target price of 1163, and have set a limit order to buy £10K at that point. One has to believe in one's methodology, until it is proven ineffective, at which point if said outcome materializes, I will gladly give it up. - I notice there are a lot of media (establishment?) reports that faster growth is back in the UK. A lot of commentators are talking up this theme. But my day to day experience reveals no meaningful change. All that liquidity pumped into financial markets was soaked up by banks, and for the most part they loaned it on to speculators etc. Those flows have to reverse at some point. How it reverses, in a controlled way or otherwise, is a matter of conjecture. - We are all amazed by China's rise, and are now all more of less convinced in a linear path to preeminence from here on for that nation and economy. I am a very, very, very keen student of Greek mythology, and like like to keep a safe distance from the Gods on Olympus intoxicated with Ambrosia, and to my mind hubris is not liked up there on that mountaintop, and blinding people with certainties is a keen joke (ruse) that these Olympian chaps enjoy very much! While Socrates is a great hero of mine with the advent of the dialectic, I never take my eyes from the pre-Socratics who know the art of the irrational is forever full of surprises. Expect the unexpected. Whatever that means!

Your 'philosophical' demeanour is perhaps the best one at this juncture. Best wishes! (PS. I know what it feels like to have placed your faith in a management that turned out to be clueless dogs)!

I would like to give a ball park figure of where, under current scenarios, this stock could end up being priced. I have a number in mind, but it changes day to day. Alas, it seems this stock will become a day-traders play for a while yet.p

I sympahtise entirely, but don't you feel that these swindlers are going to make you an offer you can't refuse? No one is protecting the shareholders such as yourself. The regulators are as supine and as corrupted as the Bakries and Tan. Probably also as clueless as Rothschild to boot!

I can see from your recurrent posts that you have a meaningful stake (pro rata) in this company. A sour sentiment is driving it down. Sometimes you can get 'too close' to a share, as when you averaged down recently only to watch the stock fall further. I am not sure where this can end up before a recovery sets in. But I don't feel it's on the recovery curve yet (share wise). Brokers are taken it down, whether that is justified or not. You will likely just have to sit tight and ride it out, but it will make you feel miserable.