Member Info for Seifert

There is an insightful story in the FT today regarding cash vs. electronic card payments. Here is a quotation: "A clear picture is emerging of the China growth story. During 2011 and 2012, the number of debit cards in China grew by more than 20% while the number of POS terminals grew by over 40%. In 2012, shipments by China’s top ten POS terminal companies totaled more than 6 million units, or about 31% of global POS terminal shipments. The total number of cards in circulation in China already exceeds the cards that are in circulation in all the mature markets combined." - Here is the link: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/09/30/china-to-lead-the-world-in-plastic-fantastic-revolution/ - In my view, there is likely to be a speculative spike up before a long slow decline to some level around 200 pence or so. This could take several years. If there was less competition, DLAR would continue to be a good prospect for years to come. But there is too much competition, and consolidation in the industry has not yet begun. - PS. The FT article may need subscription to view

Sorry about that. I see you are a sound and rational trader, but I could see this price action on De la Rue coming. The market makers who move this stock (we piddling investors are barely noticed) will decided to pull out and put their money to work elsewhere. They are not known for their patience. Good luck with your trading. And always go with your own instinct. I have been wrong as many times as I have been right. You never know, consolidation in the sector may be on the cards, and takeover rumour back in vogue.

You are commended for applying to a systematic strategy. However, I would not go long as in this case the externalities (i.e. intense competition and management statements hint at these trends like to be not only sustained, but growing) then (for me) this would be worth going in at a much lower price. But I have been wrong many times, missed lots of opportunities, and presently am not invested in any stock but keeping my eyes peeled. Good luck with your position.

If there is cleansing of companies that became too complacent, that is better for the market as a whole, and the consumer. Would that we had a cleansing when the crisis hit back in 2008, the companies we have would be much stronger. And as for Tesco, others can grow with good management and replace it. But throwing out the dross you make room for the nifty, clever, better run companies to expand and grow and become global giants. Protecting the legacy players is the way communism works. It's the way China's corporatist models works. Sooner of later, the cards will fall on China because its rigidities, like accelerating arthritis, will stall and make the economy groan and creek and collapse under a deadweight of legacy companies. - Hence, 'make room. Make room! Move over!...' should be the clarion cry of real capitalism. Good luck with your investments.

I know the feeling when you have to take big hit. I suffered a 10K hit about five years ago That was a bitter learning experience. Like you, I sold out because 'waiting it out' was paralysing me. Good luck with your investments. And do keep an eye on who is running the company. Look through the egos van vanities, as well as competencies.

I don't think it has anything to do with add some shares. This pattern of pushing down the stock has been a consistent one. There is someone out there with an agenda. I don't own this stock but I will get in if it continues down. I will buy and hold for the medium term. But not just yet. - As for your position in Tesco, what did you do? Are you waiting it out? For my mind, developments at Tesco highlight the extreme weight you must give to management (and their egos).

Do you enjoy our soliloquy? - I have been watching this stock and put in a limit order (long) at 163 and missed that by a fraction! Looking at this rationally, this company is positioned right. But I have removed my limit order and will not just keep an eye on what happens here. Good luck!

It's all algorithmic trading and ETFs chicanery that is doing all this. There is a systemic attempt by market makers to induce volatility in the markets. They are playing with fake money (most of the time) so what you see is often a con (alas!). Trade with caution. Good luck.

Perhaps holding the cash would be the more defensive option? Just a thought.

What the deuce happened here? I recall this was over 30 pence some years back and I said to myself, hey, this may be a good little company to take a punt and buy a few thousand shares without breaking the bank. And now it is down to a lowly 2.6 pence. It just goes to show, a lot of these managements have no idea what the deuce they are doing, and investing is not so much about the company, as about who the deuce the blackguard is running it (hopefully, not running it into the ground). Dry wells are one thing, and can soon lead to a dry up of credit and a dud bank balance. Good luck to all investors here. - I still love Morocco, it's a beautiful country, though.

backhanders, come to mind, is one viable explanation. The other is that this whole enterprise is a bit too chummy to be taken seriously. (why do so people imagine that this country is, when looked at from a proper angle, is no less corrupted than a banana republic?)

The one troubling factor is a statement made by the CEO who hinted that he had no clue what the second and third quarter would bring. It is this level of uncertainty that makes this stock a speculative play at present. You will need more than foresight to this this right. You need blind luck!

When the stock is being played, not traded, it can easily slip below 200, especially when stops kick in and a sell-off starts that mischievous domino effect. - Incidentally, this has nothing to do with fundamentals whatever.

How are you? i hope all is going well. I have not been following Glen recently but have followed Rio and this is a speculative play at best. I will short that at some point when I feel the speculators have inflated it sufficiently. As for Kingfisher, take note (bizarrely) of the gnomes. This provides insight into the kind of thinking that is guiding this company (into a wall?). If you get in here via shares) I would put a price of around 235ish. The reason being that this company will be banded together with the retailers (rightly or wrongly). As for the markets in general (and you can take a cue with regards Glen on that score) the inflated valuations are underpinned by fake money. But people can believe in lies and make money from lies for an 'extended period' (to steal a hackneyed and puerile phrase from central bankers). So don't let a lie get in your way from speculating. But always keep some cash handy. - On a closing note, the theory of 'Black Swans' may have to take a back seat at some point to that of 'The Gnomes'! And this ain't no laughing matter.

I went long here and got stopped out with a loss. Speculators are finding lots of reasons to dump this stock, from the exchange rate through to the slowing down in its major overseas markets. On this basis, it's a sell. Buy in much lower down.

I beg to differ, I think something odd is going on here. This stock is being played, not traded. I see no pattern, only an intention to do something.

No FT and no comment!

There is something odd going on here?!?

Gossip. - There may be a conditional 'takeover', though, somewhere further down the line.

It has been a while since I bought in here around 212 and sold at 242 (I never keep my holding very long, and I am punished for this as well as rewarded, but there you are!) I have taken my eyes off this and only in the past two days taken a look again. What I see (and I am not an expert here by any means) is that the management is forced into a 'distraction and retrenchment mode' (as I call it), and in lieu of pursuing a growth strategy, their efforts, time, and concentration is fixed on 'steadying the ship' (another metaphor). To me, it looks like it is going to be bumpy going forward. If I was the chairman, I would bring in new people. The guys who got this company into its present mess is not the same crew you want navigating a purported recovery (stabilization). Unless lady luck intervenes, the outlook, short and medium term at least, look bearish. - Disclosure, I am not invested here, and my strategy is not to invest by operating like an opportunist and speculator, so take everything I say in that context. This does not mean I am wrong, but there is no guarantee I am right, either. I always like to see PI coming out top one way or another.