Member Info for Seifert

Cancelling the dividend was forced on them, and that is not such good news, but given that it is a necessary action, what done is done. The real issue here is the uncertainty in some contracts and business going forward. At best, the stock will hold the current price (stagnant) until things improve. Alternatively, if you feel markets in general look bloated, then a general correction across the board will send it lower. Then it only a matter of picking in your buying point,.

If anyone every underestimated the disruptive power of the internet, coupled with stagnant wage growth, and thanks to Brexit a depreciating sterling, then Next latest share price should be a wake up call. Investing in this day and age is not a savvy thing to do. These markets, and disruptive forces, are turning us all into rampant speculators. And things will only get worse, I am afraid.

Before 'jumping in' I would recommend all to peruse an article in the FT today giving a comparative (and unbiased) review of Devro and a larger (more diversified) peer. Here is the title published on 20 Nov:'Cranswick and Devro deliver two very different porcine tales.'

Your 1-2-3 method has all the hallmarks of a persistent trader. I am especially taken with number 3! We all need recourse to that at times. Good trading.

Methinks you 'jumped in' too early. But only time will tell. Good trading.

Top class? How about criminal class?

Does anyone know the debt situation with this company? Or its pension liabilities? I ask in relation to any possible rights issue if the company needs to raise funds given that, inevitably, its cash flow will undergo a trauma of sorts following the latest news and 'hint's of forward earnings and orders.

There are is both hostility and indignation at how RBS behaved in the past, and there is a will among some to see it close. I don't think that would be wise. Recently, two Italian banks merged. I know this goes against trend in the 'too big to fail' consensus, but I would image that this must be one option that the government must be thinking through. RBS is now a UK (read European) bank. If more merges are carried out across the EU then I suspect RBS can get caught up in the flow of events and, perhaps with the assistance of sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, and other financial institutions at play, that we could yet see a merger. Of course, the litigation would have to be dealt with (or underwritten by government) but RBS, like Midland of old, has maybe had its day. It has too many wounds. And it would be better for shareholders if we saw consolidation in banking, as we are definitely over-banked (f that's the right phrase).

Here is my take on what the 'market's signal. With the big stocks (Glaxo, Rio, Shell etc) most trades are conducted using leveraged products like futures and CFD's etc. This pricing distort underlying real markets and does not in general reflect the market value, and creditibilty, of companies operating in the real environment. These speculative, leveraged bets are great for traders but when it comes down to actual real market signals, it is the small fry like Devro who have a sound business, are dollar earners, well managed, and overall highly stable. Share trading essentially reflects the underlying real market, and leveraged bets seldom if ever come into play. It's what people actually think, their real market expectations. When I see Devro share price decline, given the putatively positive tailwinds of sterling's decline etc, I am mindful to look at this and wonder if something specificlally is going on with Devro, or is it a broader real market signal. On that point you have to make you own determination, and act accordingly. - I think this elucidation of my earlier comments helps, and welcome and comments, or elaboration on the points raised, of your own. Good trading.

There's really nothing more I can say. Government is letting go its stake in LLOY, and doing it directly rather than offering to the public in order to raise cash and keep their focus of the Brexit issue, which will monopolize all their time. RBS has been effectively sidelined as an issue, with the Chancellor and Treasury pulling away their stock into the drawer. That leaves only traders to kick the stock around, reacting to events like the US litigation saga, Brexit ripples, low interest rates, new financial players, especially the online kind, any spillover from European banks' problems, and so on. It's purely guesswork after that where the price of the stock will go, but for day and short term traders, it is now their market.

Your frustration (and disgust) with this share (and the bank managers) is understandable. But at some point, we have to divest ourselves of certain selfish instincts and see the bigger picture that this company will cost the UK taxpayer a great deal, and the country will be the big loser. We need to bear this in mind when some covet its demise. I certainly don't want that, but I would like to see the viable parts sold off for as much as possible to recoup back for the nation as much as possible. If everyone were to withdraw their funds, that prospect would diminish. I have an account with NatWest, and I won't close it for that reason.

The consensus is with you on that. But I am not so sure. Little things have a habit or spawning all kinds of events. So I am keeping an eye on this one if for no other reason that that I like canaries. Good trading.

Point taken. So let me add some comments on RBS. I remarked many years ago that I could not see this bank being returned to the private sector. There is no dividend on the horizon, and external troubles (albeit of its own making) seem to routinely assail it. That would be bad enough but it also is getting hammed by sheer bad luck, and worse of all, poor management. How do you expect this organization to flourish with such poor management, and a culture of resignation. I suspect a lot of talented employees are looking elsewhere for a career, and the clever ones (traders) after milking all they can from RBS, head off to greener pastures. Even the government is openly talking about selling RBS at a loss, and still no buyers emerge on the horizon. Because what will you be buying? A disenchanted workforce. Mediocre, poor management. Talented (and clever) staff seeking opportunities elsewhere. You tell me where the good news is? What prospects do you see for this bank? At best, whatever the outcome, will be years away. So in the interim you may as well just trade it like a poker chip as best you can, (just as the speculators do), and chat about something else. Because this organization is many years away 9if ever) from a meaningful recovery. - Good trading.

Greetings and salutations. I have been meaning to give you a call, and will do over the weekend. - Things are slowly ticking over at my end, but progress on cue. - I feared that if Sterling continues to be pounded, then a critical point will be reached where we'll end up in a Sterling crisis. You can see speculators trying to induce a panic. The opportunists ride back in and buy on the 'lows' so at present it's a tug of war between these two opponents colliding. The idiotic conservative government and party are adding to volatility. Thinking, and trading, short term, seems the most appropriate response.

It's called a bubble. And rationalizing it won't yield a thing, least of all insight, material correlations, or valuations that reflect NAV or the value of the book. Your only friend in luck, and conviction. - Good trading.

This stock jumped up to 260 when the pound slumped a few days ago. Then dropped as the pound recovered. Now here we are with the pound slumping even more, yet this fails to soar? Is this telling us something that so many other 'dollar denominated' stocks are missing? Is this a canary in the coal mine? Any comments welcome.

Thanks for that! I think, too, that we should take the fat man at his word. He meant what he said, and he spoke on behalf of an institution, not as a personal preference. And that institution still runs the show.

I rented a flat in the Algarve for 3 months and everything was fine. A load of Brits down there, and multiples thereof in Spain, so you have a large sample of residents who will attest that life down there can be pretty cosy. I suggest France of Spain because they are the most popular with Brits. Me personally, I prefer Italy or Portugal, but I also like Cyprus which is well organised, English is widely spoken, and flights are quite cheap. But my main point is that I prefer to have as many options open to me as possible. The UK has is pluses and minuses as every other place, but overall as I get older I prefer Southern Europe. In the near future, you will see Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania etc. all these states opening up. It's a shame that Brits will not be able to move around as easily. - But let me add as an aside, I still think there may be hurdles to PM May triggering article 50. We could have a sterling crisis, a balance of payment crisis, or any other travails that can throw a wrench in the works. I don't believe politicians. These markets are determined that the UK will remain in the EU, or a soft Brexit at best. As Thatcher once remarked with John Major's braggadocio who claimed that the Sterling was a super currency , 'You can't buck the markets.' And Soros walked off with a cool billion for a few days trade!

I cannot contest a single point you've raised. The population issue is one that has been agreed on by successive administrations, and I recall the Blair's administration issuing the mantra that the UK's population will head towards 80 million plus, with no limit set. That fat guy (the deputy PM under Blair, I forget his name) stated this emphatically, that the government imposed no limit to immigration, and that this would continue no matter who was in power. I think all politicians are bought and paid for. Teresa May is full of BS. It is all politics. The future population trends have been decided. And really, the only option left to for those who have the means is to retire to somewhere like Spain, or France. This is what I am planning, because no one really cares about voting in referenda or democracy. Your best hope is to make as much as you can, through labour or stocks or whatever, and plan a retirement overseas if the present trends you see here in the UK do not meet your expectations. It's a depressing, even cynical, view, but that's the reality of politics in the UK. This country, in terms of its population density, will resemble Japan more than people realise. At lease if we remained in the EU formally moving to new habitats would have proved swifter. - Good trading.

It's all good and well to borrow, but when interest rates are at rock bottom, no one has a clue how to escape from this level (and now contemplating negative rates as the logical next step - oxymoron! -). Debt, more specifically, controlled debt, works just fine in an economy that is balanced, both in terms of its output and potential obligations, but something is seriously out of balance when money printing is ushered in, when Deutsche Bank is too big to fail, and is not really a bank but a hedge fund with an investment banking arm, then this is not capitalism in which debt plays a constructive role, but financialization run amok. It will be difficult to reindusrialize when China and new emerging markets coupled into a global trading system. Look at steel output as an example how over production spills over at below cost prices onto world markets crippling domestic producers. It's not just local economies that are unbalanced, but clearly seems to be a global problem requiring global solutions, much like global warming. Hence, leaving the EU is the wrong way forward, in my view. It's better to be part of something massive that can insulate you that venturing out alone. The UK is not a global player. It's a regional one.