Member Info for Seifert

This is Pan. I am still in London. I lost your phone number. My phone crashed again. All numbers lost! I only have the one ending in 1799. You never have it switched on. Give me a call on WhatsApp or a missed call.

Well I apologise if i appear to aim at you personally, but there is a generally tendency for those who take an opposite stake to me to mock and derogate me in any way they can, as if so doing will furnish the movement they desire. - I will treat this as my last post. Good luck to all rational traders. Seifert logging out goodbye and good luck!

Firstly, I do not care to remember particular names, as I am only interested in outcomes and potential outcomes. Even the hedge fund I mentioned in an earlier post was wrong - it is actually Pershing Square hedge fund. Who runs and owns it I care not, I am only interested in outcomes. - As an aside, I do not understand some posters on these boards who take offense that someone is taking a position different from their own. There would be nothing to trade (actually gamble) if we both agreed that this stock will rise and rise and rise. Moreover, my modest gambling/trading has no effect whatsoever on the movement on this stock, or any other. Ditto your stake. You have no effect whatsoever. So I cannot understand, other than a bitterness that things are not going your way, that you are apt to condemn me for going short. When I lose a short I do not condemn you for going long. I praised Corlis28 several times when his longs proved itself and my shorts were stopped out. Now my shorts are paying off. This is just a game and I a very modest players. It makes not the slightest difference to you stake what I do. Try and understand that. It is the 'pros' and 'speculators' whom banks borrow money to that move the stock, not I.

Yes, certainly, and also it may be said that an even richer guy, head of Liberiam capital (I think that's the name of the hedge fund) also knows far more than I - he lost more than $4 billion on a single trade. He certainly know how to lose more money than I do. - I have a right to an opinion. And there is no guarantee anyone who makes a claim to buy x amount of stock is obliged to keep to that track. He or she can change their mind. And if I were this Indian guy, I would be trading AAL, not investing in it. That is my opinion. I have a right to my opinion. Not everyone, after all, is enamoured with this stock. I see it falling back significantly eventually. But that is only my opinion. Corlis28, for example, feels differently, and his predictions panned out marvellously. But I don't see long term value here. I just don't see it.

You would have done far better trading this (speculator's) stock that holding, because it is caught with its pants down too often. It would not surprise me if the latest big mouth investor (the Indian guy) whose financial gimmicky is poised to take a stake, suddenly rebounds. It would be wise, I think, to take at least some profit here if you are ahead. As for me, I have not shorted post the second time and now will just watch and see where it settles. Good luck to all rational traders.

I have repeatedly and consistently pointed out, that (in my view) ALL is a trader's stock, not an investment one. That it shoots up over 8 percent and then tumbles by the same amount surely testifies to that? Good luck to you and others here but my position is to look for shorting this when I think the speculators have kicked it to a 'safe' place. I have been wrong before. I shorted when it was 850 and lost that time. More recently, my trades have come good. I have no interest in investing so my entire strategy is informed by speculation, purely and simply. Good luck to all rational trades.

That's a second day in a row. Short opened and closed the same day, with a tidy profit. As you will know, I trade, I don't invest. We will see what tomorrow brings. Good trading for all rational investors.

Try and keep a cool head. Valuations here are absurd, by any reckoning, so I would take some profit off the table if I were ahead, to be on the side. As for me, I am shorting this so do bear in mind not everyone is enamoured with takeaways. Good trading. PS: I am wrong on things as anyone else, I'm not infallible, so have a stop at 605p. We'll see what happens over the next couple of weeks.

My short came through nicely, and I closed it today with nice profit. If the share price of AAL stagnates tomorrow, (i.e. range bound signals) I will put another short on. - Addendum: One can only praise the prediction of Corlis38 who held his nerve and followed through on his convictions. As a gentleman, I hope he does turn in a decent profit. As for me, I am not convinced of any meaningful value here, so will keep an eye on shorting positions only. Good luck to all rational traders.

I am shorting this now, as this indian investor is buying this stock with borrowed money using a 'vehicle gimmick' reminiscent in terms of its obfuscation reminiscent of the Greek fiddling the books to join the Euro at inception. I am betting against a gambler, and those who got lucky here, I say take profit, because once a company is as wounded at this one surely way, it never really recovers. Good luck to all rational traders.

Whoa notgreedy! How is life in the mountains and forests and peaks of the home country? Time for a fight with the neighbours, I think. We need a good war to keep us all in check! - I am back in the UK now but will return to my falcons shortly. I talk to you over the weekend. - As for AAL, surely any rational person can see that it's a trading stock, not an investment proposition. The fate of the company lies in the volatile hands of commodity speculators. And in the back lies China which few people realize is full of bubbles. You need to visit and see for yourself.

The CEO declared that this company's stock is effectively around 22 percent less that yesterday's close, yet the stock rises? Many often feel that markets are rigged. This leaves the decided impression that they are. Only insider information of a sort can account for this most bizarre price action.

Expect more of these re-traces, amplified, because at bottom this is a speculator's stock. You did well with your graphs, but be wise (and not too greedy) and take profit. The gods do not like hubris. - Good luck and good trading.

There is interest in Devro, but it is tempered by caution in that the company is somewhat stretched geographically. It's strategy was ahead of its size. In my opinion, at some point, it will sell off its China operation and concentrate on fewer assets. Grow organically should have been the guiding rule of management. And now they have to get that debt down before interest rates rise.

How's the trading going? I am in Arabia now, been here for a month. I sent you a picture on WhatsApp. The 2 ticks never came up so don't know if you received it? I'll probably return to London late February but likely return here as there are things to do. Keep busy!

Cranswick. This is a broader more integrated company, not over leveraging itself in far-fling operations. It's a far safer bet than Devro, in my opinion. But as as current holder of neither stock, that's exceedingly easy for me to say.

China's leaders' obsession with remaining in power is boosting investment in cripplingly bloated sectors, and this is pulling in speculative cash into commodities. None of this is sound. Financializaion's character is to create bubbles, be it in bond, stocks, commodities, property, or whatever. It only a matter of when the music stops. For now, it's playing.

Informing the analysis in the FT was, I assume, the factor that for its size, Devro took on a large loan, and acted, perhaps precipitously, in the belief that China would really grow in scale. The other markets were already mature, and projections more straightforward. It is this balancing act of what is a modestly sized company taking on large loans and investing is a dispersed large global space, which kind of 'thins it out' compared to its larger UK peer which is a more vertically integrated company. Devro has gambled on a horizontal scale. Only time will tell how this pans out.

They downgraded it because it pays no dividends, has lots of debt, and is hostage to one story - China. The others, Rio, BLT, make more sense. They are looking way overvalued, but you can't reason with speculators playing with others' cash. AAL is a company with a past, not a future.

Well, the price dropped because the analysis in the FT seemed sound to a lot of people. Does this still seem to obtain? My guess is...?